(anonymous) 0xb4e5f4…a0b668
5W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$31
Unrealized P&L
+$34
Hit rate
90.6%
Resolved
7
Trades
219
lifetime
Volume
$5.35K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$2.71K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-08
last 10-26 19:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
59% 80% +$30
Other
24% 50% +$1
Tech
17% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +949 $863 90¢ $858 -$5 10-22 16:26
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +240 $232 96¢ $230 -$1 10-25 04:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +201 $170 94¢ $190 +$21 10-25 01:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +260 $169 64¢ $165 -$4 10-25 01:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes +143 $130 100¢ $142 +$13 10-23 21:38
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +133 $117 88¢ $117 -$1 10-25 12:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +123 $110 93¢ $114 +$5 10-26 19:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +103 $89 86¢ $89 +$1 10-24 13:54
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +96 $89 92¢ $88 $0 10-26 01:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +85 $78 96¢ $82 +$3 10-25 22:05
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +88 $64 74¢ $65 +$1 10-26 02:32
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +78 $54 67¢ $52 -$2 10-26 00:03
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +60 $53 86¢ $52 -$1 10-23 22:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +50 $47 92¢ $46 -$1 10-26 19:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +41 $40 97¢ $40 $0 10-26 19:33
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +45 $39 88¢ $39 +$1 10-23 07:16
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? No +40 $36 92¢ $37 +$1 10-21 12:57
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +242 $27 15¢ $35 +$8 10-10 17:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +65 $28 52¢ $34 +$6 10-22 16:25
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +35 $32 90¢ $32 -$1 10-24 03:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +97 $31 30¢ $29 -$3 10-23 06:50
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +34 $24 82¢ $28 +$4 10-16 08:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +213 $31 12¢ $24 -$6 10-22 16:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +46 $24 52¢ $24 -$1 10-23 17:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +55 $27 38¢ $21 -$6 10-23 23:29
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +20 $16 98¢ $20 +$4 10-08 21:49
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +17 $15 88¢ $15 +$0 10-08 14:39
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +15 $13 92¢ $14 +$1 10-14 16:39
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +20 $13 68¢ $14 +$0 10-24 19:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +28 $16 50¢ $14 -$2 10-21 18:32