(anonymous) 0xb4e5f4…a0b668
6W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$41
Unrealized P&L
+$48
Hit rate
91.8%
Resolved
9
Trades
257
lifetime
Volume
$6.01K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$2.53K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-08
last 10-28 08:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
63% 71% +$40
Other
22% 50% +$1
Tech
15% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
21 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +949 $863 90¢ $858 -$5 10-22 16:26
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +240 $232 95¢ $229 -$3 10-25 04:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +260 $169 65¢ $168 -$1 10-25 01:10
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +152 $124 98¢ $149 +$25 10-27 03:28
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +133 $117 88¢ $117 +$0 10-25 12:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +123 $110 95¢ $117 +$7 10-26 19:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +103 $89 86¢ $89 +$1 10-24 13:54
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +96 $89 92¢ $88 $0 10-26 01:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +85 $78 99¢ $85 +$6 10-25 22:05
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +95 $68 66¢ $63 -$5 10-27 18:35
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +60 $53 90¢ $54 +$1 10-23 22:04
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +78 $54 70¢ $54 $0 10-26 00:03
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 Yes +50 $47 98¢ $49 +$2 10-26 19:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +41 $40 100¢ $41 +$1 10-26 19:33
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +45 $39 90¢ $40 +$2 10-23 07:16
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +62 $41 64¢ $40 $0 10-27 10:57
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? No +40 $36 92¢ $37 +$2 10-21 12:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +65 $28 56¢ $36 +$8 10-22 16:25
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +242 $27 14¢ $33 +$6 10-10 17:52
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +34 $24 78¢ $27 +$2 10-16 08:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +213 $31 12¢ $24 -$6 10-22 16:25
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +20 $16 99¢ $20 +$4 10-08 21:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +36 $19 52¢ $19 $0 10-28 02:45
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $17 18¢ $18 +$2 10-27 10:41
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +17 $15 90¢ $15 +$0 10-08 14:39
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +15 $13 92¢ $14 +$1 10-14 16:39
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +20 $13 68¢ $14 +$0 10-24 19:40
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No +13 $11 93¢ $12 +$0 10-25 17:56
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +13 $11 84¢ $11 +$0 10-08 14:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +15 $10 68¢ $10 +$0 10-28 02:48