Accurate-Underneath — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$408

Unrealized P&L

-$6.53K

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

218

Trades

1,134

lifetime

Volume

$39.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$13.0K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-15 19:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 50% +$968

Politics

28% 39% +$580

Other

15% 21% -$291

Sports

2% 12% -$837

Tech

1% 33% -$12

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-15).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		-9,687	-$5,077	88¢	$-8476	-$3,399	05-20 13:47
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		-5,940	-$1,411	76¢	$-4544	-$3,133	05-19 03:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	14	$11.3K	6,210	6,210	+0	No	+$1,096	05-26 19:59
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	11	$7.0K	3,800	3,800	+0	No	+$609	01-17 02:14
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	27	$5.1K	0	9,687	-9,687	open	—	05-20 13:47
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	12	$2.7K	2,316	3,560	-1,244	Yes	-$95	05-26 05:18
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	20	$1.4K	0	5,940	-5,940	open	—	05-19 03:09
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	2	$1.2K	963	963	+0	Yes	-$10	07-09 19:09
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$328	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 19:57
will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	2	$294	200	200	+0	Yes	-$6	02-27 15:01
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$249	2,220	0	+2,220	No	-$249	06-02 20:35
war powers resolution passes the senate	17	$194	160	140	+20	No	+$0	03-07 06:45
will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	28	$193	186	190	-4	No	-$1	03-01 16:51
pltr up or down on february 27 2026	4	$192	200	200	+0	Up	-$4	02-27 16:12
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	2	$191	158	158	+0	Yes	+$93	06-15 20:56
googl up or down on february 27 2026	5	$186	200	200	+0	Up	-$6	02-27 16:16
will plc win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	16	$170	160	160	+0	Yes	+$0	03-19 19:02
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	1	$170	412	0	+412	No	-$170	07-13 05:44
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	13	$166	120	120	+0	No	-$1	03-01 17:35
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	24	$161	180	180	+0	No	-$7	03-01 16:50
us strikes iraq by february 28	18	$156	160	160	+0	Yes	+$1	03-02 09:41
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil?	1	$145	468	0	+468	Yes	+$323	06-13 10:42
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$144	2,570	0	+2,570	No	-$144	06-02 20:36
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 40 64	16	$138	140	140	+0	No	+$0	03-17 20:31
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	12	$128	120	120	+0	No	-$3	03-01 19:32
will uae strike iran by march 31	10	$127	100	100	+0	No	-$1	03-01 09:27
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	16	$124	140	140	+0	No	-$2	03-01 09:50
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	19	$119	120	120	+0	No	+$1	03-01 08:26
will tisza win at least 110 seats	15	$110	113	115	-2	Yes	-$3	03-19 19:03
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	16	$102	140	140	+0	Yes	+$2	03-03 10:52
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 0pt5	1	$100	580	0	+580	Over	-$100	07-15 19:27
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	3,570	0	+3,570	No	-$100	05-28 11:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 19:27:13	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	580	17¢	$100	0x8f7665…
07-13 05:44:28	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	412	41¢	$170	0x1dc5f2…
07-09 19:09:14	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	SELL	963	61¢	$587	0x8d3301…
07-09 09:23:41	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	963	62¢	$597	0xfedc60…
07-01 17:32:47	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	272	36¢	$98	0x39d042…
07-01 17:31:47	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	312	26¢	$81	0x800f00…
06-30 08:17:13	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xbb5e86…
06-30 08:16:59	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x190967…
06-29 09:52:20	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x0de054…
06-27 20:51:37	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x235917…
06-27 19:57:52	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x23da87…
06-27 03:32:19	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x6e854b…
06-26 22:53:20	will the announcers say golden boot during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716826	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x6b3b6b…
06-26 21:51:37	will the announcers say oh my god or oh my goodness during the croatia vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260625200259129	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x89b537…
06-26 21:11:41	will the announcers say golden boot during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716826	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xa2f4c5…
06-26 20:39:07	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xc864d5…
06-26 20:37:23	will the announcers say ankle during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250620	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x896fb1…
06-26 19:45:04	will the announcers say weather during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250619	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x49d475…
06-26 19:18:01	will the announcers say ronaldo during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250636	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x3fc06d…
06-26 19:14:58	will the announcers say ronaldo during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250636	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x297208…
06-26 19:14:55	will the announcers say ronaldo during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250636	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xd29cc2…
06-26 18:19:23	will the announcers say ankle during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250620	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xcde16f…
06-26 17:58:58	will the announcers say what a save during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250631	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x0608ee…
06-26 15:18:08	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x905ebd…
06-26 15:17:52	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x6775bd…
06-26 15:17:50	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x4da32c…
06-26 14:51:14	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x4251ba…
06-26 14:31:58	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the colombia vs portugal fifa world cup match 20260625200716809	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x33338e…
06-26 14:11:06	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x68fc94…
06-26 14:10:57	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x567eb4…
06-26 13:57:19	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x819573…
06-26 13:54:58	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x09c6b4…
06-26 13:50:18	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x11b834…
06-26 13:50:07	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xf6c123…
06-26 13:36:37	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x19b03f…
06-26 13:32:25	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xe4fd4a…
06-26 13:26:13	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x9cc7c5…
06-26 13:26:01	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x2e6df3…
06-26 13:24:21	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xd78f17…
06-26 13:21:21	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x5dd29f…
06-26 13:20:54	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x8f8292…
06-26 13:19:40	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x878785…
06-23 13:12:13	Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x6269ce…
06-23 13:12:04	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x552b7a…
06-23 13:02:26	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,700	2¢	$34	0xa920ca…
06-23 12:29:55	Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x337850…
06-23 10:00:05	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0xd79238…
06-23 09:59:46	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	BUY	18	26¢	$5	0x4165c6…
06-15 20:56:31	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	158	90¢	$142	0x43930f…
06-15 19:59:31	Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	158	31¢	$49	0x321776…
06-14 15:23:30	Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	189	9¢	$17	0xa59f44…
06-13 10:46:42	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,467	1¢	$37	0x904bdb…
06-13 10:45:00	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,900	1¢	$39	0x119895…
06-13 10:43:16	Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	477	9¢	$45	0x1c08fb…
06-13 10:42:16	Morocco to score first vs. Brazil?	Yes	BUY	468	31¢	$145	0x253add…
06-12 19:50:57	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x7b692c…
06-12 19:50:49	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xd8c831…
06-12 19:50:39	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x5383b4…
06-12 19:50:18	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xcdda01…
06-12 19:50:06	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xd30c5b…
06-12 19:49:55	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x40dc15…
06-11 23:43:39	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xf374ae…
06-10 22:49:45	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x230fb8…
06-10 21:07:43	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x71292a…
06-10 21:02:49	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x26599a…
06-10 21:02:48	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x49fa74…
06-10 18:38:39	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x1be0fc…
06-10 18:35:15	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x2f23e9…
06-10 18:35:06	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$3	0x1a9a7f…
06-10 18:34:58	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	17	73¢	$12	0x73606d…
06-10 18:32:21	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xf1d99d…
06-10 18:27:18	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x31fe55…
06-10 18:24:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x035e8a…
06-10 18:23:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x1e1ccc…
06-10 18:23:25	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xb7ec8a…
06-10 18:23:16	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x106632…
06-10 18:23:07	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x715d3c…
06-10 18:22:57	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xb96ba3…
06-10 18:22:42	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x6258d6…
06-10 18:22:31	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x33fc67…
06-10 18:22:27	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x1aa81a…
06-10 18:22:19	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x3a0c28…
06-10 18:22:09	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xb01fd0…
06-10 18:22:09	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	SELL	40	33¢	$13	0x8d8137…
06-10 18:22:01	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x08c259…
06-10 18:22:00	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xed2600…
06-10 18:21:57	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0x955403…
06-10 18:21:52	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xa9399a…
06-10 18:21:49	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x44e60d…
06-10 18:21:31	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x3491cf…
06-10 18:21:15	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x00de8e…
06-10 18:21:06	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x2b9838…
06-10 18:20:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xd4095d…
06-10 18:18:36	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x5e0f7a…
06-10 18:16:39	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf47125…
06-09 23:48:51	Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x0d0312…
06-09 23:33:45	Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x23a09f…
06-09 17:07:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$3	0x49650a…
06-09 16:57:00	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2a6401…
06-09 14:16:45	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x834cdf…