Gruesome-Spice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

11.3%

Resolved

Trades

181

lifetime

Volume

$18.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

$175

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-25 21:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% 100% +$2

Politics

24% — —

Sports

10% 0% —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No		-177	$-165	94¢	$-167	$-1	06-15 15:46
Will Alberta join the US?	Yes		-354	$-15	2¢	$-8	+$7	06-06 11:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	8	$5.9K	2,985	2,985	+0	open	—	04-20 03:24
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$1.9K	1,079	1,079	+0	No	+$0	04-17 08:01
Netanyahu out by June 30?	11	$1.2K	624	624	+0	open	—	06-15 19:10
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	17	$881	1,518	1,518	+0	open	—	06-05 18:57
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	5	$679	482	482	+0	open	—	06-07 19:08
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	7	$531	566	566	+0	open	—	06-25 21:29
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	8	$523	520	520	+0	open	—	06-18 10:52
Will Alberta join the US?	7	$369	396	750	-354	open	—	06-06 11:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$350	196	196	+0	open	—	05-24 11:15
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$348	175	175	+0	open	—	06-10 05:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$348	395	395	+0	open	—	05-28 03:41
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	3	$346	212	212	+0	open	—	06-21 16:27
israel closes its airspace by july 31	2	$344	205	205	+0	open	—	06-20 13:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$344	313	313	+0	open	—	05-30 13:29
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$331	173	173	+0	open	—	06-13 13:27
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	3	$322	285	285	+0	open	—	06-09 18:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$318	164	164	+0	open	—	06-23 19:20
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	3	$312	176	176	+0	open	—	06-20 05:53
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$309	193	193	+0	open	—	06-18 20:11
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$306	158	158	+0	open	—	06-24 14:55
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	5	$299	155	155	+0	open	—	06-14 06:20
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$241	2,175	2,175	+0	Yes	+$2	04-18 08:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$198	147	147	+0	open	—	06-11 02:02
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$198	110	110	+0	open	—	04-26 20:30
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$194	109	109	+0	open	—	04-26 06:51
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	6	$183	334	495	-161	open	—	05-24 19:46
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$169	172	0	+172	open	—	05-29 01:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	5	$167	358	358	+0	open	—	06-12 16:27
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$165	0	177	-177	open	—	06-15 15:46
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$148	0	172	-172	open	—	05-28 09:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 21:29:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	259	64¢	$166	0x546804…
06-25 19:10:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	259	65¢	$168	0x055157…
06-24 19:39:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	25	72¢	$18	0xc41f73…
06-24 19:38:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x12c174…
06-24 14:55:20	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	158	97¢	$153	0x37a7b0…
06-24 12:23:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	158	97¢	$154	0x437d22…
06-24 01:05:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	307	31¢	$95	0x3b8438…
06-23 23:19:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xfd4fa7…
06-23 23:19:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x5d1ad2…
06-23 23:19:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x05065f…
06-23 23:18:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	228	33¢	$75	0xa8642f…
06-23 19:20:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$50	0xb031ee…
06-23 19:20:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	112	97¢	$109	0x2e6df0…
06-23 15:57:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	164	97¢	$158	0x93218b…
06-21 16:27:58	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x2f52b8…
06-21 16:27:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	172	82¢	$141	0xd77584…
06-21 07:46:47	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	212	81¢	$172	0xbc20a7…
06-20 15:13:32	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	348	8¢	$28	0x3fd921…
06-20 14:01:32	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	175	8¢	$14	0x461630…
06-20 14:01:31	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	173	8¢	$14	0x0eb5d7…
06-20 13:15:13	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	SELL	205	84¢	$172	0xc1853a…
06-20 10:58:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	205	84¢	$172	0xa19f1d…
06-20 05:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	112	88¢	$99	0x9eac35…
06-20 05:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	64	88¢	$57	0x19bfc2…
06-20 02:50:23	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	176	88¢	$156	0x5b538b…
06-18 20:11:41	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	182	81¢	$147	0xc6dc78…
06-18 20:11:41	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x5d364e…
06-18 14:21:13	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	46	79¢	$36	0x4febda…
06-18 14:21:13	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	147	79¢	$116	0x27af0e…
06-18 10:52:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xbc6487…
06-18 10:52:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	190	48¢	$91	0x32891a…
06-18 09:47:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x93a99d…
06-15 19:10:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	168	99¢	$166	0x1cf836…
06-15 17:41:45	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	168	99¢	$166	0xfa4214…
06-15 15:46:19	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	177	94¢	$165	0x2f5092…
06-14 22:46:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0x842cb8…
06-14 22:46:39	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	59	99¢	$58	0x8cb722…
06-14 18:06:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0xc92fb5…
06-14 06:20:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x53345d…
06-14 06:20:28	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	148	97¢	$143	0xbb5f66…
06-14 03:08:55	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xb8489d…
06-14 03:08:55	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	71	97¢	$69	0x7c15db…
06-14 03:08:55	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	59	97¢	$57	0x0fa1e9…
06-13 23:58:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$150	0x002329…
06-13 21:07:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0x5bccaf…
06-13 17:47:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0xf7ce7c…
06-13 17:47:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x6cb787…
06-13 14:56:51	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x6d2ba7…
06-13 14:56:51	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	135	99¢	$133	0x3b4e8e…
06-13 13:27:52	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	173	96¢	$165	0xf2e556…
06-13 11:19:00	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	173	96¢	$165	0xe143f8…
06-12 22:11:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	7¢	$7	0xd1b6d0…
06-12 19:50:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	6¢	$5	0xe503e0…
06-12 19:50:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0x5d5dda…
06-12 16:27:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	135	21¢	$28	0x2feb9b…
06-12 16:26:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	94	22¢	$21	0xe2efb7…
06-12 16:26:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	129	22¢	$28	0xc0f5e7…
06-12 14:35:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	148	25¢	$37	0xc0b038…
06-12 14:35:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	210	25¢	$52	0x1210cc…
06-11 02:02:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0xde19eb…
06-11 02:02:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	129	68¢	$88	0x5e6d27…
06-11 01:10:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	147	67¢	$98	0x9cff81…
06-10 19:11:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	294	2¢	$7	0xcc6d49…
06-10 17:40:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0xb3ab04…
06-10 17:40:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	184	2¢	$4	0x2e229a…
06-10 05:39:51	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	175	100¢	$175	0x0b13b3…
06-10 01:24:10	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	175	99¢	$173	0xb540b9…
06-09 18:21:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	221	55¢	$122	0xd29af2…
06-09 18:21:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	64	55¢	$35	0xb801dc…
06-09 16:34:15	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	285	58¢	$165	0x88abd9…
06-09 11:33:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	139	3¢	$4	0xe8d17d…
06-09 09:50:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	138	4¢	$5	0x3aaf13…
06-09 09:50:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x175054…
06-08 01:17:40	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x736345…
06-08 01:17:39	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	2¢	$2	0xf13b57…
06-07 23:48:48	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x5e3c57…
06-07 23:48:48	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	2¢	$2	0x109547…
06-07 19:08:28	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	236	71¢	$168	0xe8d54c…
06-07 17:20:42	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	236	72¢	$170	0x6ea410…
06-06 11:25:30	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	222	5¢	$10	0x38f356…
06-06 09:10:34	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	222	5¢	$10	0x6c0058…
06-05 21:57:51	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	186	4¢	$7	0xa14836…
06-05 20:14:55	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	186	4¢	$7	0x5210de…
06-05 18:57:28	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	148	19¢	$29	0x281262…
06-05 15:45:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	148	19¢	$28	0x96c628…
06-05 13:27:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0xf26b9f…
06-05 13:27:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	176	19¢	$33	0x39ee57…
06-05 13:27:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	209	19¢	$40	0x18cfe2…
06-05 09:28:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	386	19¢	$74	0x04912c…
06-05 02:23:28	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x6b3a29…
06-05 02:23:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	239	3¢	$8	0x997e6e…
06-05 02:23:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	159	3¢	$5	0x619abe…
06-05 02:23:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	178	3¢	$6	0x127387…
06-05 02:22:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	133	3¢	$4	0xe76aac…
06-05 02:22:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	229	3¢	$7	0xc3bd21…
06-05 02:22:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	239	3¢	$7	0x61de3b…
06-04 21:27:30	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	182	19¢	$35	0xad3e0f…
06-04 19:04:36	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	182	18¢	$33	0x117a57…
06-04 14:13:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	245	4¢	$9	0xbd8caf…
06-04 14:13:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	125	4¢	$4	0x3bd327…