Mysterious-Yin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$261

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,039

lifetime

Volume

$195.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-04 13:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

57% 57% $-46

Other

36% 67% $-98

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-117

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$9.2K	9,657	500	+9,157	open	—	04-08 19:26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	8	$7.4K	6,434	1,000	+5,434	open	—	03-04 18:17
will khamenei tweet again by march 1	12	$5.4K	2,079	3,442	-1,363	open	—	03-01 00:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	15	$5.2K	6,290	0	+6,290	open	—	03-01 00:07
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$4.6K	4,436	1,376	+3,060	open	—	02-02 23:34
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	8	$4.5K	4,489	45	+4,444	open	—	04-16 19:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	28	$3.9K	3,696	1,561	+2,136	open	—	04-21 20:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$3.6K	1,880	1,880	+0	open	—	04-13 16:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	20	$3.4K	3,035	3,035	+0	open	—	07-16 18:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	19	$3.3K	2,535	2,535	+0	open	—	04-05 15:26
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	18	$3.3K	2,801	2,801	+0	open	—	03-08 22:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$3.1K	6,460	593	+5,867	open	—	05-29 15:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	18	$2.9K	6,376	1,305	+5,071	open	—	04-21 16:15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	8	$2.8K	2,238	738	+1,500	open	—	04-21 17:07
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	38	$2.3K	1,820	1,820	+0	open	—	04-19 20:51
will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	10	$2.2K	1,595	1,595	+0	open	—	07-07 16:36
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	35	$2.2K	2,600	600	+2,000	open	—	03-04 02:44
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	25	$2.2K	1,622	622	+1,000	open	—	04-19 16:01
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	18	$2.1K	2,185	84	+2,100	open	—	03-09 01:36
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	18	$2.1K	1,450	1,000	+450	open	—	03-29 16:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	21	$2.1K	2,865	2,865	+0	open	—	04-20 20:52
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$2.1K	2,093	93	+2,000	open	—	03-08 21:38
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	2	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	02-08 22:23
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 31	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	03-06 17:32
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-02 17:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-05 04:01
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	8	$2.0K	3,487	0	+3,487	open	—	04-06 02:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	9	$1.9K	1,012	1,000	+12	open	—	03-02 02:12
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-13 14:59
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	11	$1.8K	1,933	697	+1,236	open	—	02-25 18:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 13:34:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	42	70¢	$29	0x59785d…
08-04 13:34:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	97	70¢	$68	0x4302ee…
08-04 13:34:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xe7dad6…
08-04 13:34:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x7b63ec…
08-04 13:34:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x001a4b…
08-01 20:21:30	gavin newsom or his wife federally charged by december 31 2026 20260616161140638	No	SELL	45	88¢	$40	0xabcca2…
08-01 19:24:29	will marco rubio say trump 3 times during fox news my view appearance 20260731183534165	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x79b95b…
08-01 19:22:21	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xdf2588…
08-01 04:05:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	211	0¢	$0	0x58bd91…
08-01 03:36:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x49fa6e…
08-01 03:27:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	172	11¢	$19	0xef863f…
08-01 03:23:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	1,428	0¢	$2	0xfe9809…
07-31 19:44:27	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x2e1464…
07-29 12:57:35	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	35	67¢	$23	0x7899be…
07-28 23:19:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	SELL	1,352	14¢	$189	0x0b8b15…
07-28 22:10:37	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	140	66¢	$93	0xb7fea3…
07-28 16:43:11	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	No	BUY	31	19¢	$6	0xf3fcac…
07-24 20:58:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	89	98¢	$88	0x2db0fb…
07-24 20:37:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0xc4a799…
07-24 20:37:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	163	98¢	$160	0x5d794c…
07-24 20:36:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x19a97f…
07-24 20:35:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	32	98¢	$32	0x991435…
07-24 19:19:15	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	1,230	18¢	$221	0xfafc80…
07-24 02:48:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	117	99¢	$116	0xb39298…
07-24 02:37:54	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	83	99¢	$82	0x4dbdd5…
07-23 18:16:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	148	97¢	$143	0xda2c4e…
07-23 18:14:36	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	BUY	2,703	25¢	$676	0x203237…
07-22 23:14:25	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x42916a…
07-22 03:30:18	will intel intc q2 foundry revenue be above 7b 20260707033834453	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x9c69cb…
07-20 20:16:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	800	43¢	$344	0x0b3080…
07-20 19:56:34	will thor die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259191	No	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x1436f5…
07-19 13:38:07	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xba3a10…
07-19 04:00:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	351	17¢	$60	0x1264f1…
07-18 19:21:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	600	41¢	$246	0x7e12cb…
07-18 03:52:52	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0xe69746…
07-17 23:44:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0x61b5c8…
07-17 20:48:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	446	85¢	$379	0x2cdf0d…
07-17 20:43:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0xf9ea17…
07-17 20:42:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xbf8b47…
07-17 20:34:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	133	85¢	$113	0x57e039…
07-17 19:34:13	will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x0ac6e9…
07-17 18:13:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	28	85¢	$24	0xbb1199…
07-17 17:12:21	will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	Yes	SELL	31	63¢	$19	0x2e2b66…
07-17 13:34:42	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	BUY	36	76¢	$27	0xe216b0…
07-17 04:28:33	will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	Yes	BUY	11	60¢	$6	0xd10d83…
07-17 04:14:18	will marvel studios announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131272	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0x8a1fd0…
07-17 01:31:21	will trump say million billion or trillion 20 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621419	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x5bf12f…
07-17 01:31:02	will trump say million billion or trillion 20 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621419	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x92b361…
07-17 01:12:34	will trump say maduro during speech to the nation 20260713200621437	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x7f262f…
07-17 01:11:40	will trump say communist during speech to the nation 20260713200621426	Yes	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0x45e6e5…
07-17 01:01:55	will trump say china during speech to the nation 20260714024840217	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xb2b874…
07-17 01:01:22	will trump say communist during speech to the nation 20260713200621426	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x8bc6aa…
07-16 18:38:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$990	0x8c9857…
07-16 17:56:14	will a chinese company have one of the top 10 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	122	1¢	$1	0x3d7fdc…
07-16 17:52:29	will intel intc q2 foundry revenue be above 6b 20260707033834451	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb9d10c…
07-16 17:52:13	will intel intc q2 foundry revenue be above 6b 20260707033834451	Yes	BUY	85	51¢	$43	0x1ca5cb…
07-15 23:44:22	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x2faac4…
07-15 19:45:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$89	0x238bff…
07-14 21:21:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	500	40¢	$200	0x331c63…
07-14 21:12:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	35	79¢	$27	0x6abd08…
07-14 19:27:50	will gus a mounted tyrannosaurus rex skeleton sell for at least 45m at auction 20260710183448006	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x305e20…
07-14 19:27:44	will gus a mounted tyrannosaurus rex skeleton sell for at least 45m at auction 20260710183448006	Yes	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xa5aa6a…
07-14 18:49:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0x8a1a3e…
07-14 18:41:31	will gus a mounted tyrannosaurus rex skeleton sell for at least 40m at auction 20260710183448005	Yes	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x4b6732…
07-14 18:41:16	will gus a mounted tyrannosaurus rex skeleton sell for at least 30m at auction 20260710183448003	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0xcf3d9a…
07-14 14:48:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	86	87¢	$75	0x850d35…
07-13 15:08:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x19a17a…
07-13 15:00:11	trump declassifies new ufo files by august 31 20260710184334567	Yes	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0xa8fc71…
07-13 14:58:02	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x00a857…
07-10 13:52:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	131	48¢	$63	0x01f472…
07-10 10:07:11	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xe8cc37…
07-10 06:31:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xd83793…
07-09 21:37:40	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	522	24¢	$125	0xc7c566…
07-09 21:33:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	78	24¢	$19	0x37d2a2…
07-09 19:00:26	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	BUY	270	96¢	$258	0x62144e…
07-09 04:01:52	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0x6c3acc…
07-08 21:01:52	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	500	24¢	$120	0xedddad…
07-08 16:47:35	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x7cd5c8…
07-08 12:46:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	357	0¢	$0	0xe5cf84…
07-08 05:52:02	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	59	37¢	$22	0xe4cd0e…
07-08 03:10:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15	Yes	BUY	72	20¢	$15	0x9c8dde…
07-07 21:52:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	92	21¢	$19	0x022221…
07-07 18:19:53	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	33¢	$15	0x9e8863…
07-07 18:00:23	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x709d2f…
07-07 17:56:07	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	948	33¢	$313	0xe363de…
07-07 16:36:37	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	410	98¢	$403	0x951865…
07-07 15:32:01	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1,061	98¢	$1,044	0x57c59c…
07-07 14:24:32	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x7ddce2…
07-07 14:24:16	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x767ebb…
07-07 14:23:59	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x55402f…
07-07 13:35:10	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 7 2026 20260630182730885	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xbf75ff…
07-07 13:33:16	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x5d5b36…
07-07 13:32:11	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x6db262…
07-07 12:42:29	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 743	No	BUY	1,000	18¢	$180	0xc766d8…
07-06 22:42:55	will graham platner drop out by july 6	Yes	BUY	52	13¢	$7	0x918a16…
07-06 22:42:29	will graham platner drop out by july 6	Yes	BUY	232	13¢	$29	0x0948b3…
07-06 22:18:50	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	United States	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x258cb1…
07-06 19:38:47	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	Yes	BUY	33	56¢	$19	0xd14ae6…
07-06 19:38:47	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	Yes	BUY	33	51¢	$17	0x3748d1…
07-06 19:02:20	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xbc9f1d…