Realized P&L
+$4.26K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.17K
Hit rate
80.2%
Resolved
576
Trades
2,427
lifetime
Volume
$241.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$100
Open exposure
$9.89K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-27 05:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 178 days
Categories
Politics
56% 69% +$3,612
Other
37% 71% +$1,319
Tech
3% 57% -$1,495
Crypto
3% 56% +$190
Sports
1% 57% +$631
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
39 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +3,537 $425 88¢ $3.1K +$2,705 08-29 11:46
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,100 $807 74¢ $808 +$1 10-26 17:22
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +1,630 $265 39¢ $635 +$370 08-13 13:14
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +1,100 $429 55¢ $600 +$170 07-10 22:43
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +9,437 $808 6¢ $590 -$219 07-26 16:51
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +3,746 $874 16¢ $581 -$294 09-10 22:37
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -454 -$404 97¢ $-441 -$36 06-20 17:26
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +2,000 $380 20¢ $410 +$30 10-27 05:56
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922 Yes +494 $171 70¢ $346 +$174 07-10 13:52
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,000 $300 32¢ $315 +$15 10-22 13:54
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +500 $465 54¢ $268 -$198 09-10 16:38
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No -271 -$230 97¢ $-263 -$34 06-16 09:19
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,000 $330 22¢ $220 -$110 07-07 18:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -1,073 -$161 18¢ $-188 -$27 05-23 20:46
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes +236 $179 78¢ $185 +$6 07-19 13:38
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +281 $164 60¢ $170 +$6 09-09 03:26
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +3,591 $863 4¢ $138 -$725 09-14 02:31
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +820 $321 16¢ $135 -$186 10-22 14:00
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +300 $99 42¢ $124 +$26 09-18 12:08
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,032 $237 8¢ $88 -$150 05-08 14:45
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No -497 -$268 16¢ $-82 +$186 08-01 19:21
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +625 $387 8¢ $53 -$333 07-10 10:07
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -40 -$41 79¢ $-32 +$9 07-28 22:10
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -35 -$23 76¢ $-27 -$3 07-29 12:57
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +423 $38 3¢ $15 -$23 09-10 16:40
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes +128 $27 11¢ $14 -$13 09-06 14:53
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 Yes +200 $174 7¢ $14 -$160 07-31 19:44
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +21 $7 38¢ $8 +$1 09-18 12:08
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $20 15¢ $7 -$13 08-20 14:35
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +279 $9 0¢ $1 -$8 09-10 16:40