Wiry-Apple — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$100

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

103

Trades

299

lifetime

Volume

$46.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$157

Open exposure

$22

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-24 03:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Politics

50% 88% +$58

Other

48% 96% +$40

Crypto

2% 67% $0

Tech

1% 100% +$2

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$1	05-23 03:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+13	$6	16¢	$2	-$4	05-16 13:58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-01 04:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	27	$10.4K	5,254	5,254	+0	No	+$7	03-26 02:52
trump out as president by march 31	8	$4.4K	2,210	2,210	+0	No	+$3	03-24 15:29
will trump visit china by march 31	10	$3.8K	1,588	2,288	-700	No	+$1	03-25 12:50
will trump say oil gas gasoline at the nrcc dinner on march 25 143	4	$2.3K	1,185	1,185	+0	Yes	+$23	03-26 02:47
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	12	$2.2K	1,177	1,177	-0	Yes	+$5	04-10 14:24
will trump say israel israeli at the nrcc dinner on march 25 639	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$18	03-26 05:58
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 25 2026 30corhigher	1	$2.0K	1,958	0	+1,958	No	+$8	03-25 14:25
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,901	0	+1,901	Yes	+$2	03-23 15:07
will trump say filibuster at the nrcc dinner on march 25 925	7	$1.3K	699	600	+99	No	+$6	03-26 06:21
will trump say hell 8 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	2	$1.2K	1,239	0	+1,239	Yes	+$2	03-26 02:54
will gold gc hit low 4500 by end of march	3	$1.2K	1,203	0	+1,203	Yes	+$2	03-24 01:58
will trump say no no no at the nrcc dinner on march 25 766	2	$1.0K	1,035	0	+1,035	No	+$1	03-26 06:57
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?	2	$998	500	500	+0	No	+$0	05-27 13:53
will trump say job 15 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	5	$935	470	470	+0	No	+$5	03-26 03:15
will melania say challenge during fostering the future together event on march 24	2	$671	679	0	+679	No	+$8	03-25 05:15
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%?	3	$609	1,055	55	+1,000	No	+$1	06-03 03:45
Trump out as President by April 30?	5	$571	287	287	+0	No	+$1	04-23 16:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	5	$553	285	285	+0	No	+$1	05-11 17:12
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 15% and 20%?	2	$500	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$0	05-27 12:17
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	17	$452	231	231	+0	No	+$3	05-15 08:29
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$366	186	186	-0	No	+$1	05-22 04:36
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	5	$365	226	143	+83	No	+$0	04-26 05:58
will trump say snap food stamp at the nrcc dinner on march 25 552	1	$339	342	0	+342	No	+$3	03-26 05:02
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$292	147	147	+0	No	+$1	06-28 13:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?	2	$286	145	145	+0	No	+$2	06-12 14:44
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$285	144	144	+0	No	+$0	05-04 19:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	3	$285	143	143	+0	No	+$0	04-18 15:47
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$266	134	134	+0	No	+$1	03-29 14:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	8	$263	135	135	+0	No	+$0	04-07 22:36
will melania say department of state during fostering the future together event on march 24	2	$248	249	0	+249	No	+$1	03-25 04:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 03:40:46	will gas hit 2pt50 low by july 31 20260630204749457	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xac08da…
07-23 14:32:52	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4f1685…
07-23 14:31:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9e096b…
06-28 20:28:17	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	140	91¢	$127	0xcacac6…
06-28 13:53:04	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	140	85¢	$119	0xa725e6…
06-28 13:52:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	147	100¢	$146	0xc041f7…
06-27 14:52:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	147	99¢	$146	0xc91f9a…
06-27 04:34:29	Will Ghana reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0dc732…
06-12 14:44:39	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?	No	SELL	145	99¢	$144	0x0d38e0…
06-10 09:57:45	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x66c8e4…
06-08 08:20:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt8t	No	BUY	145	98¢	$142	0x8d1d20…
06-08 03:16:30	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8193fa…
06-08 03:14:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	141	1¢	$1	0x2c1778…
06-03 05:47:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	141	98¢	$138	0x6accc8…
06-03 03:45:27	Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	Yes	BUY	67	63¢	$42	0xb6cb5a…
06-03 03:45:04	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x13db13…
06-01 04:44:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xc17c5e…
05-31 00:44:30	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?	Yes	SELL	137	0¢	$0	0x0b5823…
05-29 08:51:59	Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?	Yes	SELL	140	0¢	$0	0x6f99d5…
05-29 05:48:00	Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	SELL	35	26¢	$9	0x5ef09a…
05-29 05:37:18	Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?	No	SELL	140	100¢	$139	0x64acda…
05-29 05:10:33	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xbac3cd…
05-29 05:07:59	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x7b5214…
05-29 04:58:18	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0x0817d0…
05-29 03:51:15	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x9971d2…
05-29 03:35:41	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	49	66¢	$32	0x2381c7…
05-29 03:33:01	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x7c147d…
05-29 03:06:50	Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x25ae27…
05-29 03:03:34	Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x21203d…
05-29 03:03:34	Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x0f71bf…
05-29 03:03:20	Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x66366e…
05-29 02:35:11	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x23b26e…
05-29 02:09:57	Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x69e782…
05-27 13:53:41	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x26b14b…
05-27 12:17:09	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 15% and 20%?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xd65d93…
05-27 08:41:01	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 15% and 20%?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x09df02…
05-27 08:20:10	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?	Yes	SELL	363	0¢	$0	0xdaf34e…
05-27 08:09:49	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xcf3a1b…
05-27 07:07:08	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x8986a8…
05-27 07:06:49	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xb94187…
05-27 05:07:24	Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%?	No	BUY	555	100¢	$554	0x648f87…
05-23 17:11:09	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6d6cc0…
05-23 13:45:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x5102f2…
05-23 03:08:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x954a68…
05-22 07:50:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xa28889…
05-22 04:36:06	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	186	99¢	$183	0xcbc671…
05-22 03:17:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x387680…
05-21 14:09:14	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xf27304…
05-21 05:25:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3e7334…
05-18 13:58:36	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe51585…
05-18 13:13:23	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1f33ba…
05-17 02:39:59	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	186	98¢	$183	0x1d346d…
05-16 15:24:08	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x99e161…
05-16 14:06:00	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb5a11d…
05-16 14:03:56	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6ee83e…
05-16 14:01:39	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x8c858c…
05-16 14:01:08	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe87cdd…
05-16 13:59:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xca8a99…
05-16 13:58:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd7728d…
05-15 08:29:42	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0x692f5f…
05-15 07:54:26	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x2c90e5…
05-15 07:22:56	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xafbb74…
05-15 06:52:57	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x6d1b04…
05-15 06:51:21	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x148a88…
05-15 06:04:04	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x36bf5e…
05-15 06:03:55	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xcb6821…
05-15 06:03:55	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4c5ef3…
05-15 06:03:45	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe1c607…
05-15 06:03:43	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3ea8c5…
05-15 06:03:38	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x69de01…
05-15 06:03:36	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x56c7bc…
05-15 06:03:29	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x177d3c…
05-15 06:03:27	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x553386…
05-15 05:39:55	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2c1833…
05-15 05:38:17	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0xe5aaca…
05-15 02:19:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xd55299…
05-14 02:33:45	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	231	97¢	$224	0xbf0119…
05-11 17:12:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	140	97¢	$136	0x146d8b…
05-10 12:42:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	140	97¢	$135	0x93bb9a…
05-10 04:10:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	140	97¢	$136	0x46847c…
05-09 01:25:38	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x5dd550…
05-09 01:24:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xfce766…
05-07 07:10:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	145	97¢	$141	0x25c2d4…
05-04 19:51:32	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	144	99¢	$143	0x4bff5e…
05-03 15:54:34	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	144	99¢	$142	0x9d3d15…
04-30 03:58:58	Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xab5f93…
04-26 05:58:08	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7d641b…
04-26 04:39:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0xa77068…
04-23 16:51:08	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	144	100¢	$143	0x42eb4b…
04-21 03:45:26	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	144	99¢	$143	0xb5ab5a…
04-20 17:07:02	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xc4847a…
04-20 17:07:02	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0x514585…
04-19 08:57:28	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x9a70f0…
04-18 15:47:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	143	100¢	$142	0x784f05…
04-17 12:54:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	122	99¢	$121	0xe87703…
04-17 12:26:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x248207…
04-16 11:26:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x89f3a1…
04-16 11:26:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x746279…
04-15 21:53:22	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$141	0x3b7475…
04-11 05:19:19	will construction be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 851	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xa222ca…