Double-Modernity-Atrium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

-$85

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

137

Trades

1,523

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$77

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-12 16:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

48% 100% +$6

Other

23% 100% +$1

Politics

21% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+200	$162	38¢	$77	$-85	07-08 07:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$714	491	491	+0	open	—	06-11 03:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	9	$712	600	600	+0	open	—	07-08 22:04
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	9	$672	533	533	+0	open	—	06-12 15:41
Fed rate hike in 2026?	5	$618	600	400	+200	open	—	07-08 07:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	8	$560	482	482	+0	open	—	06-26 05:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	6	$376	411	411	+0	open	—	06-12 16:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	4	$370	400	400	+0	open	—	07-12 16:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$308	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 01:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$271	174	174	+0	open	—	06-12 16:22
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	06-04 22:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	6	$250	400	343	+57	open	—	06-12 19:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	3	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 14:16
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	2	$204	212	212	+0	open	—	07-09 09:57
starmer out by july 31 2026	8	$182	142	142	+0	open	—	06-08 19:03
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$162	197	197	+0	open	—	06-26 04:34
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$142	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 18:30
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$126	129	129	+0	open	—	05-30 04:45
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	8	$124	200	200	+0	open	—	07-04 21:10
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	2	$121	114	114	+0	open	—	06-22 13:46
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	3	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	07-03 17:43
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	2	$95	73	73	+0	open	—	07-01 10:26
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	3	$82	114	114	+0	open	—	06-10 01:00
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	2	$74	61	61	+0	open	—	06-03 15:56
sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	3	$69	0	100	-100	open	—	06-07 18:34
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	2	$62	50	50	+0	open	—	06-05 13:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:52
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	4	$43	53	53	+0	open	—	06-05 18:53
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	06-30 16:55
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	3	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	07-03 00:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 16:35:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0xa55fe5…
07-11 02:02:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xce65ed…
07-09 09:57:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	212	48¢	$102	0x11378c…
07-09 09:57:41	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	212	48¢	$102	0xacacc7…
07-08 22:04:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x281eba…
07-08 21:57:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xf023cf…
07-08 18:30:47	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	27¢	$54	0x940a6a…
07-08 12:02:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0x020890…
07-08 11:52:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xce0943…
07-08 07:16:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0xe03a2c…
07-06 01:17:11	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0x3c071a…
07-04 21:10:56	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	31¢	$1	0xe1a61c…
07-04 21:10:56	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x18c528…
07-04 21:10:50	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	23	31¢	$7	0x2b49cf…
07-04 21:10:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	105	31¢	$32	0xb044de…
07-04 21:10:47	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x634747…
07-04 21:10:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	47	31¢	$15	0xf6741e…
07-04 21:10:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x46123b…
07-04 21:10:26	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x1d30ee…
07-03 17:43:11	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	91	50¢	$46	0x75b4a3…
07-03 10:04:04	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	9	50¢	$4	0x56ac7b…
07-03 10:03:11	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xd15542…
07-03 00:14:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x34eff9…
07-03 00:14:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0x1bdbc4…
07-03 00:14:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x0164e6…
07-01 10:26:26	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	73	65¢	$47	0x3a6d5f…
07-01 06:20:56	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	73	65¢	$47	0xf1f651…
06-30 16:55:35	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x5b2662…
06-30 16:55:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x835bbb…
06-26 05:32:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	53¢	$0	0xe4be07…
06-26 05:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	81	51¢	$41	0x767cd3…
06-26 04:34:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	177	39¢	$69	0x78a9bf…
06-26 04:24:08	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	177	39¢	$69	0x9ccfe2…
06-25 21:06:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0798c3…
06-25 21:06:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	77	51¢	$39	0xed4acf…
06-25 11:20:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xe18bd7…
06-25 11:09:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x1305df…
06-22 13:46:49	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	114	53¢	$60	0x411127…
06-22 13:45:05	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	114	53¢	$60	0xa46679…
06-22 08:14:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	56¢	$112	0x6acf71…
06-22 07:43:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x89adb8…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-15 06:16:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0xbc1c30…
06-15 06:16:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x114dbb…
06-14 06:08:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x8177f7…
06-12 19:54:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	143	24¢	$34	0xa2b784…
06-12 16:25:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x274c03…
06-12 16:25:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x32f507…
06-12 16:22:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	174	78¢	$135	0x2156e1…
06-12 16:21:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	174	78¢	$135	0x8ae9b8…
06-12 15:41:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0x031d4e…
06-12 15:38:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xc88f3d…
06-12 14:53:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	143	38¢	$54	0x8de4a1…
06-12 14:53:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	57	38¢	$22	0x3305b3…
06-12 14:52:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x353ae2…
06-12 14:50:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xe4a6ee…
06-11 03:55:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	38	83¢	$32	0xfb79ef…
06-11 03:32:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	23	84¢	$19	0x364142…
06-11 03:32:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x0bdbf6…
06-11 03:32:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	91	83¢	$76	0x877e7b…
06-10 01:00:19	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x53dc10…
06-10 00:59:37	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	105	36¢	$38	0xb40a53…
06-09 19:15:52	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	114	36¢	$41	0x0357ad…
06-08 19:03:37	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	107	64¢	$69	0x0ccf19…
06-08 19:03:36	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0xd87d5f…
06-08 19:03:34	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x610090…
06-08 10:45:03	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xf3880c…
06-08 10:24:37	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x7c1d4e…
06-08 10:08:33	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x5b58c7…
06-08 10:05:00	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x9c2a02…
06-08 05:34:18	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	142	64¢	$91	0xe505ba…
06-07 18:34:10	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x703089…
06-07 12:37:30	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	23	69¢	$16	0x5e7e1b…
06-07 08:49:10	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	67	69¢	$46	0x66f3cb…
06-06 18:35:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x04d7e2…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x575989…
06-05 18:53:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	41¢	$18	0x052fb7…
06-05 13:17:33	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0xd212f7…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	206	60¢	$124	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	206	60¢	$124	0xa08e89…
06-05 11:59:15	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xed48d3…
06-05 08:59:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x7bce5a…
06-05 07:36:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x7b9277…
06-05 07:36:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x3b383a…
06-05 00:39:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0xe6a165…
06-04 22:27:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x034c75…
06-04 22:27:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x601b99…
06-04 13:28:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	182	73¢	$133	0xdb11a8…
06-04 13:28:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0xba6d69…
06-04 11:56:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0xbc7499…
06-03 20:19:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x6d6e11…
06-03 20:19:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	189	71¢	$134	0x5ebe73…
06-03 20:12:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0x11c5bd…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:56:04	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	61	61¢	$37	0x06d9b5…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	60¢	$37	0xd9512a…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xbfbb16…
06-03 05:32:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x29f2e3…
06-02 13:52:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x3faa21…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x868943…