Early-Gun — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

69.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$92

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$10

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-10 03:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

100% 50% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on May 10?	No	+4	$4	100¢	$4	$-0	05-10 03:24
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on May 10?	No	+4	$4	100¢	$4	$-0	05-10 03:02
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	Yes	+3	$3	100¢	$3	$-0	05-10 03:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$53	80	+80	Yes	+$27	05-08 05:40
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	2	$22	79	+79	No	$-22	05-08 05:39
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on May 10?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	05-10 03:24
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on May 10?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	05-10 03:02
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	1	$3	3	+3	No	+$0	05-06 01:39
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$3	80	+80	No	$-3	05-08 05:40
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	1	$3	3	+3	open	—	05-10 03:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 03:24:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on May 10?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6b2261…
05-10 03:22:13	Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x74751c…
05-10 03:02:37	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on May 10?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x69b928…
05-08 05:40:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0xbe66fa…
05-08 05:40:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	66¢	$53	0x916884…
05-08 05:39:17	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	28¢	$19	0xbee6bc…
05-08 05:37:48	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xe85536…
05-06 01:39:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x43691d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Courageous-Polish 0xc4d5…87cf	4	$8.75K	173	05-08 08:59
Intelligent-Tax 0x913f…c676	3	$3.76K	5	05-08 14:15
Compassionate-Hardware 0xb4e9…f380	3	$2.67K	5	05-08 06:55
Far-Acid 0xf6e6…e0bb	3	$2.22K	12	05-08 13:39
Serpentine-Maggot 0x6964…ef53	3	$1.84K	10	05-08 14:24
Hospitable-Maestro 0x2061…8ec9	3	$1.62K	3	05-08 06:55
Salty-Geometry 0xbac4…1ab2	3	$1.60K	5	05-08 05:29
Right-Simple 0xfbcb…bb5d	3	$1.48K	241	05-06 09:21