Alarming-Harp — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$18.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

48.8%

Resolved (90d)

18,495

Trades (90d)

164,340

376,430 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.25M

$3.65M lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$25

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-27 22:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 238 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 58% -$51,600

Other

0% 56% +$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 17809 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	—	+25	$18	100¢	$25	+$7	10-27 22:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 03:00 UTC	4	$3.8K	2,111	2,106	+5	Down	+$39	01-28 03:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 04:00 UTC	65	$3.6K	2,156	2,132	+24	Down	+$635	01-28 04:12
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 06:30 UTC	3	$3.2K	2,383	1,219	+1,164	Down	-$785	01-28 06:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 03:45 UTC	2	$3.2K	1,686	1,682	+4	Up	+$170	01-28 03:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 03:00 UTC	60	$3.1K	1,665	1,661	+3	Down	+$149	01-28 03:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 06:30 UTC	3	$3.1K	2,213	1,091	+1,121	Down	-$916	01-28 06:45
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 02:00 UTC	4	$2.5K	1,388	1,384	+4	Down	+$73	01-28 02:15
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 04:00 UTC	9	$2.4K	1,282	1,280	+2	Down	+$103	01-28 04:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 18:00 UTC	12	$2.4K	2,723	0	+2,723	Up	+$325	01-27 18:04
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 03:00 UTC	26	$2.3K	1,221	1,218	+2	Down	+$99	01-28 03:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 04:30 UTC	2	$2.3K	1,338	1,326	+12	Up	+$325	01-28 04:45
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 07:00 UTC	20	$2.3K	1,313	1,302	+11	Down	+$301	01-28 07:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:30 UTC	2	$2.2K	1,257	1,249	+8	Up	+$246	01-28 05:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 01:00 UTC	2	$2.2K	1,233	1,226	+7	Down	+$222	01-28 01:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:45 UTC	9	$2.2K	1,220	1,214	+7	Up	+$209	01-28 05:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 04:15 UTC	2	$2.2K	1,689	1,697	-7	Down	-$816	01-28 04:25
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 01:15 UTC	7	$2.2K	1,187	1,182	+5	Down	+$176	01-28 01:27
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 23:15 UTC	13	$2.2K	1,172	1,167	+5	Up	+$161	01-27 23:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 01:00 UTC	14	$2.1K	1,160	1,156	+4	Down	+$149	01-28 01:13
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 23:30 UTC	8	$2.1K	1,159	1,155	+4	Up	+$149	01-27 23:43
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:30 UTC	11	$2.1K	1,146	1,142	+4	Up	+$135	01-28 05:41
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:00 UTC	7	$2.1K	1,134	1,131	+3	Down	+$120	01-28 05:10
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:30 UTC	9	$2.1K	1,132	1,129	+3	Up	+$122	01-28 05:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 02:30 UTC	19	$2.1K	1,123	1,121	+3	Down	+$113	01-28 02:42
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:45 UTC	15	$2.1K	1,122	1,119	+3	Up	+$111	01-28 05:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 06:45 UTC	4	$2.1K	1,112	1,110	+2	Up	+$102	01-28 06:56
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 02:30 UTC	7	$2.1K	1,109	1,107	+2	Down	+$99	01-28 02:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 02:00 UTC	5	$2.1K	1,109	1,107	+2	Down	+$99	01-28 02:12
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 23:45 UTC	9	$2.1K	1,102	1,100	+2	Down	+$92	01-27 23:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 06:45 UTC	6	$2.1K	1,101	1,099	+2	Up	+$91	01-28 06:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x873c92…
10-27 22:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x6323f4…
10-27 22:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa2a890…
10-27 22:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x9bca38…
10-27 22:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x82fd0e…
10-27 22:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb3b581…
10-27 22:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x7817ff…
10-27 22:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	64¢	$0	0x4beb6f…
10-27 22:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	0	64¢	$0	0x202221…
10-27 22:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x1d9655…
10-27 22:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x6d6664…
10-27 22:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xf76821…
10-27 22:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6a9abb…
10-27 22:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x4fb637…
10-27 22:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x47b5a4…
10-27 22:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x3c4c03…
10-27 22:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x3daa7f…
10-27 22:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	42¢	$1	0x2dd101…
10-27 22:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x2b4d3b…
10-27 22:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0x2066d8…
10-27 22:32:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x579814…
10-27 22:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9de2a0…
10-27 22:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0xfddc93…
10-27 22:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x1bc35b…
10-27 22:32:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb1516d…
10-27 22:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xa57709…
10-27 22:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x4b239b…
10-27 22:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xce6b7a…
10-27 22:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xaa35d9…
10-27 22:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x6ad3ac…
10-27 22:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x40dbce…
10-27 22:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb37b60…
10-27 22:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf272bb…
10-27 22:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xbfdf4f…
10-27 22:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa90a17…
10-27 22:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x537d1f…
10-27 22:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xbb2a38…
10-27 22:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x8eacac…
10-27 22:32:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x2c7cc3…
10-27 22:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x75ab5c…
10-27 22:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x2669a8…
10-27 22:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xa02d33…
10-27 22:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x9e1d6f…
10-27 22:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x6c44ab…
10-27 22:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x170014…
10-27 22:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x09a0db…
10-27 22:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xdd68ef…
10-27 22:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8341f4…
10-27 22:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x10b151…
10-27 22:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd4ca38…
10-27 22:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x419f56…
10-27 22:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xaf2559…
10-27 22:31:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x182cef…
10-27 22:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc81a7d…
10-27 22:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xbc9cd9…
10-27 22:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0x96941c…
10-27 22:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x70562e…
10-27 22:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x0bf020…
10-27 22:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xcb2238…
10-27 22:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x93c224…
10-27 22:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x48b586…
10-27 22:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x7e464d…
10-27 22:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xd1e325…
10-27 22:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x060552…
10-27 22:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x05158a…
10-27 22:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xdaf682…
10-27 22:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x1e4ae9…
10-27 22:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x93296a…
10-27 22:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0xec7088…
10-27 22:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xd4cc43…
10-27 22:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x982cfd…
10-27 22:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x191b17…
10-27 22:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x2e68c3…
10-27 22:31:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x258320…
10-27 22:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x417928…
10-27 22:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xb9030a…
10-27 22:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x173c2f…
10-27 22:30:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x91fc3e…
10-27 22:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdb4370…
10-27 22:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x441707…
10-27 22:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x158594…
10-27 22:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xfa7321…
10-27 22:27:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x61c511…
10-27 22:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x2517de…
10-27 22:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x7668ad…
10-27 22:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x0573e1…
10-27 22:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xb411d2…
10-27 22:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x4b5f36…
10-27 22:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9a9c85…
10-27 22:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8612b4…
10-27 22:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xf6c0d4…
10-27 22:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x50c410…
10-27 22:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xc1a3d9…
10-27 22:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x2d7ac9…
10-27 22:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbbb6fa…
10-27 22:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x96eae9…
10-27 22:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x70f311…
10-27 22:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x91c156…
10-27 22:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x158e14…
10-27 22:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x000329…