Unaware-Adjustment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$300

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.2%

Resolved

249

Trades

415

lifetime

Volume

$5.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 11-04 13:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Other

45% 63% +$165

Politics

27% 53% +$251

Sports

20% 53% -$72

Crypto

6% 31% -$44

Tech

2% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	8	$291	186	186	+0	Yes	+$79	03-08 22:00
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$109	70	70	+0	Yes	+$31	05-30 19:10
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	3	$100	99	98	+0	cancelled	$0	06-27 15:10
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	11	$97	1,002	150	+853	No	-$65	03-14 11:17
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$95	70	70	+0	Yes	+$12	04-13 17:19
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	4	$85	85	85	+0	open	—	11-04 13:41
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	2	$76	47	47	+0	open	—	11-04 13:41
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	3	$71	71	71	+0	cancelled	-$1	06-27 15:10
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$62	39	39	+0	Yes	+$12	11-04 13:41
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$62	39	39	+0	Yes	+$14	11-04 13:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$60	205	205	+0	No	-$30	03-29 17:41
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$60	184	127	+57	No	-$18	07-08 17:02
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	4	$56	94	94	+0	open	—	11-04 13:42
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	3	$56	85	0	+85	Yes	+$30	09-18 05:34
sea int cag 2026 04 17 int	1	$50	62	0	+62	Yes	+$12	04-17 14:37
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	3	$50	50	50	+0	cancelled	$0	06-27 15:11
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$49	29	29	+0	No	+$9	04-25 07:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$48	60	60	+0	open	—	06-27 15:11
fl1 ang hac 2026 04 18 ang	3	$47	52	14	+39	No	+$11	04-18 11:01
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	4	$46	53	41	+12	Spurs	-$27	04-26 21:08
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$45	36	36	+0	Yes	-$5	04-01 04:53
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 tot	5	$45	69	16	+52	Yes	-$13	03-18 21:01
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	4	$42	43	43	+0	open	—	10-16 19:31
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	2	$41	31	31	+0	No	+$1	06-02 17:05
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$41	56	56	+0	No	+$1	03-24 21:04
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	3	$40	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-08 14:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$40	24	24	+0	Yes	$0	04-25 07:07
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$39	71	71	+0	No	+$19	03-20 05:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	3	$38	53	53	+0	Yes	-$2	04-01 04:53
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5	2	$38	23	23	+0	Over	+$8	05-16 15:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 13:43:03	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x6885cd…
11-04 13:42:51	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	94	2¢	$1	0x6fff18…
11-04 13:42:34	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x111759…
11-04 13:42:22	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	SELL	19	67¢	$12	0x9f4b68…
11-04 13:42:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x0126e9…
11-04 13:41:52	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	39	95¢	$37	0xc84ae2…
11-04 13:41:39	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x3f7570…
11-04 13:41:21	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	90¢	$41	0x67e0e7…
11-04 13:41:10	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x536b4b…
10-17 14:58:45	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	39	62¢	$24	0xc5144f…
10-17 14:54:00	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xfc7081…
10-16 19:31:38	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	35¢	$9	0xa03522…
10-16 19:31:14	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x6fadb0…
10-05 19:16:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	63¢	$11	0x321b55…
10-05 19:02:14	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xc300a6…
10-05 19:01:35	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October?	Yes	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x8b2833…
10-04 08:17:28	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xa31689…
10-04 08:16:53	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	19	47¢	$9	0x0287ed…
10-04 06:42:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x0699d1…
10-04 06:42:19	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xa6d0ba…
10-04 06:35:50	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x537343…
10-04 06:35:23	Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x9dc6c1…
10-04 06:34:59	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xed704e…
10-02 05:00:41	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xe0557f…
10-02 05:00:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x3caf3a…
10-02 04:57:42	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x6bd1b1…
10-02 04:57:09	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x35b194…
10-01 19:10:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	33¢	$6	0x68244e…
10-01 19:09:41	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x121cf4…
10-01 19:09:23	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xcf9cb6…
10-01 19:08:20	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xa16086…
09-24 18:31:33	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x516b85…
09-22 17:39:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0xd27e3b…
09-22 17:29:06	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x3704c0…
09-22 05:30:01	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x65d7a3…
09-22 05:29:03	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xdb32ac…
09-22 05:28:40	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xbadeef…
09-18 05:38:58	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0x592bc6…
09-18 05:34:27	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x3a7202…
09-18 05:33:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	39	42¢	$16	0x37b6c3…
09-18 05:32:07	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0xc11e2f…
09-18 05:31:30	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x3ee4cd…
09-15 05:36:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x025148…
09-15 05:36:10	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x01af91…
09-13 11:13:36	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	47¢	$8	0xdf4992…
09-13 11:13:10	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0x2f22ca…
09-13 11:12:43	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0x5a863e…
09-09 05:25:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbea92c…
09-09 05:25:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xfd0fe5…
09-08 21:07:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x0d08ee…
09-07 17:47:16	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	26	85¢	$22	0xf42ba4…
09-07 17:46:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x4220fb…
09-07 17:45:25	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0xf96e60…
09-07 17:44:13	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xbb6dba…
09-05 19:37:31	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x5a6ed7…
09-05 19:37:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x5fe95a…
08-30 08:32:01	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0x3d0c0d…
08-27 06:12:55	FC Barcelona leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x88dd34…
08-27 06:12:00	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xbd4f2d…
08-24 17:05:04	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xc06ba5…
08-12 06:03:24	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x3f87ba…
08-12 05:56:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xd8449d…
08-08 07:01:00	Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xb40d63…
08-08 06:59:25	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x170806…
08-08 06:58:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	16	45¢	$7	0x8c56db…
08-08 06:58:39	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	16	47¢	$7	0xb38a70…
08-05 19:42:12	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0x83d32f…
08-03 17:38:54	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x2d9047…
08-03 17:38:21	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x08c8ad…
08-03 17:37:44	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x673afc…
08-02 17:37:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x6eb9ce…
07-19 04:47:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x9aea15…
07-19 04:46:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x1732f8…
07-19 04:46:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x5672e3…
07-16 19:06:02	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x0e52d6…
07-15 15:03:14	Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	BUY	59	59¢	$35	0x4f41b9…
07-13 07:07:58	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x349968…
07-13 07:06:59	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0xa4c2df…
07-13 07:05:17	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0xaa5c16…
07-11 14:00:26	Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xe3e9be…
07-10 04:14:16	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0xa92c05…
07-09 18:15:52	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0xf48cd2…
07-08 17:13:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x3d3215…
07-08 17:12:07	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd8db96…
07-08 17:09:49	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5e5d68…
07-08 17:02:38	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xe1c19c…
07-05 09:07:01	Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x28bd9f…
07-05 09:05:58	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x5eb864…
07-04 06:18:53	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0x7d59fa…
07-04 06:13:52	Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xb6237f…
07-04 06:12:47	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x1101fb…
07-04 06:10:25	Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xfa7370…
06-27 15:11:31	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	39	22¢	$9	0x1f029e…
06-27 15:11:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	17	70¢	$12	0x958118…
06-27 15:11:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0x306fca…
06-27 15:11:01	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0x05a106…
06-27 15:10:52	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	71	50¢	$35	0x6d35e7…
06-27 15:10:40	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	SELL	98	50¢	$50	0xf1e850…
06-21 15:27:35	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	25	35¢	$9	0x22c27d…
06-21 14:19:43	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	1¢	$1	0x28bdb4…