(anonymous) 0xbdbbdd…57a2cd
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Realized P&L (7d)
-$29
Unrealized P&L
+$48
Hit rate
54.8%
Resolved (7d)
29
Trades (7d)
193
655 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$834
$9.04K lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$438
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-11
last 10-27 13:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 58 days
Categories
Other
95% 41% -$576
Politics
3% 100% +$5
Tech
2% 0% -$74
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
61 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +43 $38 94¢ $40 +$2 10-23 08:23
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +40 $35 86¢ $35 $0 10-23 08:24
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +30 $23 90¢ $27 +$4 10-24 05:23
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +47 $22 48¢ $22 +$1 10-18 16:55
military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 31 No +25 $15 88¢ $22 +$7 10-15 06:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +25 $18 82¢ $20 +$2 10-24 09:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +46 $21 42¢ $20 -$1 10-23 08:23
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +58 $24 34¢ $20 -$5 10-23 20:49
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +20 $7 87¢ $18 +$11 10-21 08:48
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +31 $20 56¢ $18 -$2 10-15 11:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +25 $15 68¢ $17 +$2 10-23 08:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +20 $15 78¢ $16 +$1 10-26 21:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +15 $13 98¢ $15 +$2 10-25 08:25
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026 No +21 $3 66¢ $14 +$11 10-14 22:22
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +20 $13 70¢ $14 +$1 10-23 02:25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +27 $11 46¢ $12 +$1 10-25 02:52
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +75 $6 15¢ $11 +$5 10-27 13:54
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$0 10-25 21:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +10 $9 94¢ $9 +$0 10-23 13:44
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $5 81¢ $8 +$3 10-21 13:29
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +10 $8 80¢ $8 +$0 10-20 19:44
perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916 Yes +45 $19 18¢ $8 -$11 10-14 12:45
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +8 $8 97¢ $8 +$0 10-23 09:49
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +10 -$1 74¢ $7 +$9 10-22 19:08
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +13 $7 56¢ $7 +$0 10-15 22:24
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +10 $7 72¢ $7 +$1 10-23 10:27
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes +10 $6 70¢ $7 +$1 10-16 01:03
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +10 $6 66¢ $7 +$1 10-23 14:59
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +10 $6 57¢ $6 $0 10-26 09:32
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +30 $4 18¢ $6 +$1 10-26 22:29