(anonymous) 0xbdbbdd…57a2cd
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Realized P&L (90d)
-$628
Unrealized P&L
+$72
Hit rate
45.8%
Resolved (90d)
255
Trades (90d)
672
672 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$9.10K
$9.10K lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$452
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-11
last 10-28 02:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 60 days
Categories
Other
95% 41% -$557
Politics
4% 67% +$2
Tech
2% 0% -$74
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +43 $38 93¢ $40 +$1 10-23 08:23
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +40 $35 88¢ $35 +$0 10-23 08:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +47 $22 66¢ $31 +$9 10-18 16:55
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +58 $24 50¢ $29 +$5 10-23 20:49
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +30 $23 92¢ $27 +$5 10-24 05:23
military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 31 No +25 $15 84¢ $21 +$6 10-15 06:53
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026 No +21 $3 80¢ $17 +$14 10-14 22:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +46 $21 36¢ $17 -$4 10-23 08:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +20 $15 84¢ $17 +$2 10-26 21:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +25 $15 66¢ $16 +$2 10-23 08:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +31 $20 52¢ $16 -$3 10-15 11:16
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +20 $7 79¢ $16 +$10 10-21 08:48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +15 $13 100¢ $15 +$2 10-25 08:25
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +15 $4 99¢ $15 +$11 10-27 18:56
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +25 $14 56¢ $14 +$1 10-28 00:22
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +20 $13 67¢ $13 +$1 10-23 02:25
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +75 $6 17¢ $13 +$6 10-27 13:54
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$0 10-25 21:35
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $5 88¢ $9 +$4 10-21 13:29
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +10 -$1 85¢ $8 +$10 10-22 19:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +27 $11 30¢ $8 -$3 10-25 02:52
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 +$0 10-23 09:49
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +10 $8 80¢ $8 +$0 10-20 19:44
perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916 Yes +45 $19 18¢ $8 -$11 10-14 12:45
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +10 $7 76¢ $8 +$1 10-23 10:27
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes +10 $6 74¢ $7 +$2 10-16 01:03
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +10 $6 66¢ $7 +$1 10-23 14:59
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +13 $7 50¢ $6 $0 10-15 22:24
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +30 $4 20¢ $6 +$2 10-26 22:29
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +10 $6 55¢ $6 -$1 10-26 09:32