United-Diaphragm — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$396

Unrealized P&L

-$95

Hit rate

79.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

15 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$833

$833 lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$138

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-12 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

91% 80% +$396

Politics

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?	No		-135	$-108	100¢	$-134	$-27	05-11 10:20
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No		+728	$73	1¢	$4	$-69	05-06 12:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	2	$172	344	0	+344	Yes	+$172	05-11 04:24
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?	3	$122	0	141	-141	No	$-11	05-11 13:09
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?	1	$108	0	135	-135	open	—	05-11 10:20
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 11?	1	$106	119	0	+119	No	+$13	05-11 10:32
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$96	45	153	-108	No	+$26	05-06 09:54
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$95	290	0	+290	Yes	+$195	05-06 04:53
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$73	728	0	+728	open	—	05-06 12:22
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 11?	1	$55	0	58	-58	open	—	05-12 00:11
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 11?	1	$5	25	0	+25	open	—	05-11 11:38
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-11 11:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 00:11:44	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 11?	No	SELL	58	94¢	$55	0xa350ff…
05-11 13:09:32	Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x50a45e…
05-11 13:09:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?	No	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x9e5e15…
05-11 11:38:11	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x3d0cea…
05-11 11:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb66e90…
05-11 10:32:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 11?	No	BUY	119	89¢	$106	0x7ce5f8…
05-11 10:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?	No	SELL	135	80¢	$108	0xbd2389…
05-11 10:16:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?	No	SELL	125	92¢	$115	0x6f62ed…
05-11 04:24:04	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	75¢	$96	0x8b5377…
05-10 06:08:28	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	35¢	$76	0xcfa0d4…
05-06 12:22:18	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	728	10¢	$73	0x71cc2c…
05-06 09:54:58	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	153	40¢	$61	0x665a54…
05-06 06:04:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0x9950ab…
05-06 04:53:20	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x471c58…
05-06 04:29:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	33¢	$95	0x376f2e…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Courageous-Polish 0xc4d5…87cf	3	$6.43K	99	05-11 09:52
Serpentine-Maggot 0x6964…ef53	3	$4.75K	12	05-11 06:54
Equatorial-Fire 0x7141…8345	3	$1.87K	5	05-10 18:48
Cool-Impostor 0x04a2…e16c	3	$1.44K	10	05-10 23:56
Slight-Campaign 0x7505…2978	3	$1.35K	48	05-11 14:02
Jubilant-Phrase 0xec86…60e4	3	$990	27	05-12 04:30
Ondra 0x849c…4009	3	$871	17	05-11 14:35
Idealistic-Freezing 0x878a…a429	3	$784	6	05-11 14:46