Moist-Thumb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

218

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-17

last 06-25 19:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

34% 0% $-0

Sports

17% 0% $-0

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alberta join the US?	Yes		+274	$11	2¢	$7	$-5	06-02 10:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	7	$682	641	641	+0	open	—	06-03 20:09
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$642	331	331	+0	open	—	05-23 10:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	8	$640	605	524	+81	open	—	05-29 09:07
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	6	$604	307	307	+0	open	—	04-26 15:30
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	13	$601	798	798	+0	open	—	04-10 03:10
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$596	599	599	+0	open	—	06-06 01:36
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	5	$592	304	304	+0	open	—	03-19 09:59
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	5	$584	312	312	+0	open	—	03-27 03:48
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$392	346	346	+0	open	—	06-24 08:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$366	327	327	+0	open	—	05-28 11:38
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	5	$363	441	391	+50	open	—	06-13 16:30
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$346	458	458	+0	open	—	06-05 10:11
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$326	166	166	+0	open	—	03-17 15:50
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$326	173	173	+0	open	—	03-23 13:42
Netanyahu out by April 30?	4	$326	323	323	+0	open	—	04-13 01:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$319	162	162	+0	open	—	06-01 00:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$316	164	164	+0	open	—	05-31 13:17
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$316	167	167	+0	open	—	04-20 14:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$313	326	326	+0	open	—	06-13 04:08
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	2	$309	164	164	+0	open	—	06-18 04:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	3	$309	160	160	+0	open	—	06-18 12:56
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$302	481	481	+0	No	+$0	04-02 22:28
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	3	$301	162	162	+0	open	—	06-22 22:21
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	2	$301	198	198	+0	open	—	06-23 03:07
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$295	153	153	+0	open	—	03-23 22:52
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$290	147	147	+0	open	—	04-08 07:12
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	2	$289	150	150	+0	open	—	04-14 20:18
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$286	146	146	+0	open	—	04-22 08:05
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$285	145	145	+0	Yes	$-0	04-24 16:30
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	4	$281	249	248	+1	open	—	06-09 21:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 19:55:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	75	35¢	$26	0x467464…
06-25 19:37:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x339af4…
06-25 14:24:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	80	35¢	$28	0x3ae2cf…
06-24 19:16:32	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	14¢	$4	0x27a3ad…
06-24 18:07:02	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x3145ef…
06-24 08:16:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	46	60¢	$28	0xc1f1a2…
06-24 08:16:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	255	60¢	$153	0x5aee67…
06-24 05:05:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	301	55¢	$166	0x5e6d42…
06-24 00:17:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	45	51¢	$23	0x586a26…
06-23 21:05:41	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	45	52¢	$23	0xa78cbd…
06-23 16:25:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	148	86¢	$127	0x820995…
06-23 15:06:53	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	148	86¢	$127	0xd5e0b6…
06-23 03:07:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	198	76¢	$150	0x785dfa…
06-23 01:11:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	198	76¢	$150	0x20c381…
06-22 22:21:08	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	162	93¢	$151	0xac29cd…
06-22 20:41:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xaf7030…
06-22 20:41:34	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	147	93¢	$137	0x253581…
06-18 17:09:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	105	5¢	$6	0x3280b3…
06-18 15:56:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$6	0x793ebf…
06-18 12:56:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	124	97¢	$120	0x8e492b…
06-18 12:56:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x048afd…
06-18 08:40:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x1cee1a…
06-18 04:52:13	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	164	94¢	$154	0x795c07…
06-18 02:08:59	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	164	94¢	$154	0xef3978…
06-16 02:44:39	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x621928…
06-16 02:44:37	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	10¢	$4	0xd84b99…
06-16 02:44:37	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	10¢	$3	0x5928d3…
06-16 02:44:36	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	522	10¢	$52	0xdf6f13…
06-16 01:52:37	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0x03c83b…
06-14 17:34:04	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	185	8¢	$15	0x1bb1d4…
06-14 15:39:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	154	9¢	$14	0x9f7860…
06-14 15:39:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x1c03e9…
06-14 15:39:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0x0cf1ac…
06-13 16:30:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xc66b63…
06-13 04:08:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	326	48¢	$156	0xf2640c…
06-13 04:06:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	177	48¢	$85	0x3d90bf…
06-13 04:06:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	149	48¢	$72	0x0f5255…
06-10 17:11:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	81	45¢	$36	0xe2f59e…
06-10 17:11:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	310	45¢	$140	0xbef419…
06-10 15:50:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x76a178…
06-10 15:50:51	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	386	45¢	$174	0x42bc14…
06-10 05:29:49	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	307	2¢	$5	0xad1277…
06-10 03:12:52	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	2¢	$2	0x61a716…
06-10 03:12:52	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	2¢	$3	0x127216…
06-09 21:51:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	248	57¢	$141	0x50a14a…
06-09 19:38:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0x74ce53…
06-09 19:38:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	202	56¢	$113	0x5d38c4…
06-09 19:38:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0x59a220…
06-09 05:26:16	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	64	78¢	$50	0x841289…
06-09 01:35:30	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	64	76¢	$49	0x24da61…
06-08 17:27:25	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	138	3¢	$4	0x0c329d…
06-08 15:18:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	3¢	$4	0xa215f7…
06-08 15:18:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x635815…
06-07 02:12:34	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	29¢	$13	0xb0494b…
06-07 00:35:42	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0xec1144…
06-06 06:37:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	69	3¢	$2	0xdc771d…
06-06 06:37:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	118	3¢	$3	0xe1b8e7…
06-06 06:37:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	161	3¢	$5	0x6496ad…
06-06 05:16:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x255fd3…
06-06 05:16:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0x631328…
06-06 05:16:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	109	3¢	$3	0x55016a…
06-06 05:16:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	176	3¢	$5	0x2e9433…
06-06 01:36:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	168	45¢	$76	0x31a6bb…
06-06 01:36:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	144	45¢	$65	0x87691f…
06-05 23:31:51	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	312	45¢	$140	0x1ae22f…
06-05 19:16:49	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	277	55¢	$152	0x5e6fdc…
06-05 19:16:48	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x4ad63f…
06-05 16:53:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	271	55¢	$149	0x9168ce…
06-05 16:53:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x054c91…
06-05 10:11:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x8f0aa6…
06-05 10:11:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	22	81¢	$18	0x5735af…
06-05 08:41:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	122	81¢	$99	0x19556f…
06-03 20:09:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	161	98¢	$158	0x40515e…
06-03 16:11:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	161	98¢	$157	0x6fe6a2…
06-03 16:07:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	336	22¢	$73	0x34ef01…
06-03 10:11:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	336	23¢	$76	0xbd5109…
06-03 03:19:27	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	178	31¢	$55	0x7f9750…
06-03 02:00:34	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	31¢	$31	0x315b78…
06-03 02:00:34	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	31¢	$24	0x1a934b…
06-02 10:47:46	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	174	4¢	$7	0x55ade8…
06-02 10:47:44	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0x2f25df…
06-02 10:47:44	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	62	4¢	$3	0x2b02ba…
06-01 19:09:07	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	304	1¢	$4	0x5aace1…
06-01 14:52:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	304	1¢	$4	0xfaee5d…
06-01 00:29:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0xfe56ef…
06-01 00:29:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0xd5a4e1…
05-31 21:19:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	162	98¢	$159	0xe7b048…
05-31 13:17:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	151	96¢	$146	0xc3cd74…
05-31 13:17:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x117060…
05-31 09:23:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x3aec0f…
05-31 09:23:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	158	96¢	$152	0x302cd2…
05-31 07:51:34	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	180	97¢	$174	0x4d81d4…
05-31 06:42:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	180	97¢	$174	0x4890b0…
05-31 02:28:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	165	3¢	$5	0xccc28f…
05-31 02:28:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	135	3¢	$4	0x58e18d…
05-30 21:40:50	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0x669e67…
05-30 08:11:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	3¢	$2	0x52206d…
05-30 08:11:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	165	3¢	$5	0x0bc436…
05-30 07:00:20	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	229	4¢	$10	0x2a0044…
05-29 09:07:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	168	5¢	$8	0x09771c…