Offbeat-Catalysis — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$447

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

34.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

558 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.25K

$47.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-29

last 08-26 20:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

63% 69% +$3,806

Crypto

23% 33% -$1,308

Sports

9% 29% -$612

Tech

3% — —

Other

1% 14% -$150

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	4¢	$0	$0	05-22 14:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	7	$10.5K	5,806	5,806	+0	Yes	+$829	06-16 11:18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	4	$2.5K	1,757	1,757	+0	Yes	+$374	04-17 16:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$2.4K	2,303	2,303	+0	No	-$458	04-18 11:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$2.1K	3,337	0	+3,337	No	+$1,197	05-28 17:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$2.0K	2,570	2,570	+0	open	—	05-23 18:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.8K	1,480	1,480	+0	No	-$135	04-18 14:06
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	6	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-22 14:00
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	3	$1.4K	971	971	+0	Yes	+$445	04-07 22:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	4	$1.3K	1,849	1,849	+0	Yes	+$250	06-15 01:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	1,819	1,819	+0	Yes	+$274	05-22 23:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	4	$1.1K	1,475	1,475	+0	Yes	+$154	05-24 04:30
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$1.1K	4,325	2,362	+1,962	No	-$280	07-12 01:16
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$816	2,260	2,260	+0	No	+$16	06-20 01:48
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$804	779	779	+0	No	+$240	06-08 03:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$792	1,522	1,522	+0	Yes	-$30	05-17 19:34
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$744	5,955	5,955	+0	No	-$42	06-20 17:17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$723	1,420	1,420	+0	Yes	+$240	07-15 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	3	$702	507	507	+0	Down	+$302	05-23 09:56
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	3	$654	810	810	+0	No	-$6	05-28 17:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$449	284	284	+0	No	+$117	06-07 19:55
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$433	6,955	0	+6,955	No	-$433	06-20 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	3	$421	412	412	+0	Up	+$361	05-22 15:29
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$411	0	3,161	-3,161	No	+$411	05-16 20:28
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$291	1,525	1,429	+95	No	-$109	04-12 04:23
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$274	5,897	5,357	+540	No	-$92	07-11 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:50 UTC	2	$233	333	333	+0	Down	+$33	07-22 01:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$232	279	279	+0	Down	+$32	05-23 10:46
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	2	$224	588	588	+0	Argentina	+$164	07-04 00:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$200	345	0	+345	No	+$145	05-24 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	3	$200	790	0	+790	Up	-$200	05-23 09:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 20:46:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x9d3558…
08-26 20:40:40	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 20:30 UTC	Up	SELL	23	26¢	$6	0x58a97c…
08-26 20:36:31	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-26 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0x427d38…
08-26 20:33:18	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	SELL	1,584	0¢	$2	0x9befc3…
08-26 12:11:06	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	BUY	787	6¢	$46	0xfe37b4…
08-26 12:10:10	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x486952…
08-26 12:09:57	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	BUY	54	5¢	$3	0xf1121d…
08-26 12:09:57	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	BUY	621	4¢	$25	0xc5a22b…
08-26 12:08:43	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0x450e17…
08-26 12:05:51	wti closes above 83 on august 26 2026	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x817b7f…
08-23 23:18:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x8f3d53…
08-23 23:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0xa49e30…
08-23 23:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xbf4731…
08-23 23:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	215	5¢	$10	0x0e47c1…
08-23 23:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7PM ET	Up	SELL	62	27¢	$17	0x72f814…
08-23 23:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x14d72e…
08-23 23:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0xd9c100…
08-23 23:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x7ebbf9…
08-23 22:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x27882c…
08-23 22:42:13	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x2c7213…
08-23 22:34:25	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	160	16¢	$25	0xc36ba6…
08-23 22:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	131	15¢	$20	0x9b9929…
08-23 22:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x2bdcb7…
08-23 22:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x3ee147…
08-23 22:13:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x504dc5…
08-23 22:13:00	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	133	4¢	$5	0x02743b…
08-23 22:10:28	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xfff1fc…
08-23 22:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x89a463…
08-23 22:02:34	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0xd18ad5…
08-23 22:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x7ca32f…
08-23 21:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x928d44…
08-23 21:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xf3b194…
08-23 21:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x5da80f…
08-23 21:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	172	12¢	$20	0xe491b0…
08-23 21:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	59	9¢	$5	0x7ef9e8…
08-23 21:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x2dd5cd…
08-23 21:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0x01cf21…
08-23 21:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x211e62…
08-23 21:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x37596c…
08-23 21:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x41286d…
08-23 21:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x45ef39…
08-23 21:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xa9d497…
08-23 21:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x9129b7…
08-23 21:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xda73e1…
08-23 21:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0x25c991…
08-23 21:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x5037da…
08-23 21:12:51	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xa521fa…
08-23 21:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xf452da…
08-23 21:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x3399fc…
08-23 21:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x5f419a…
08-22 15:28:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfd58c3…
08-22 15:27:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xdbd3e3…
08-22 15:21:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x941648…
08-22 15:19:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x155660…
08-22 15:17:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	76	27¢	$20	0x4f8195…
08-22 15:16:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x5d41c8…
08-22 15:14:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:10 UTC	Down	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x11fc12…
08-22 15:11:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xae0ffd…
08-22 15:11:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xfbdba9…
08-22 15:07:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x9dcf2f…
08-22 15:02:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	461	5¢	$25	0x3f037c…
08-22 14:58:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xee2631…
08-22 14:56:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xe1587f…
08-22 14:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x82e95b…
08-21 13:43:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 13:30 UTC	Up	SELL	86	95¢	$82	0x1d5414…
08-21 13:30:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	86	28¢	$24	0x035fd3…
08-21 13:20:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	335	12¢	$40	0x5cf152…
08-21 13:13:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	185	8¢	$15	0xe9bdec…
08-21 13:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xde3504…
08-21 13:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	91	29¢	$26	0x924736…
08-21 13:05:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0x7b603a…
08-21 13:04:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	77	67¢	$52	0x9ca3c7…
08-21 13:03:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x8d4d92…
08-21 12:45:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:45 UTC	Down	SELL	99	55¢	$55	0x2c27a0…
08-21 12:41:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x19fad1…
08-21 12:41:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xcd5a34…
08-21 12:36:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x72df8e…
08-21 12:35:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x80d10c…
08-21 12:32:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x7af7ed…
08-21 12:21:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xe25fca…
08-21 12:14:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:00 UTC	Up	SELL	62	99¢	$62	0x5f81cb…
08-21 12:04:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x60ca46…
07-22 02:01:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x928e96…
07-22 01:52:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:50 UTC	Up	SELL	333	40¢	$133	0xfbd2d4…
07-22 01:51:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0xb64fcd…
07-22 01:46:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x64e10d…
07-22 01:22:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:20 UTC	Up	BUY	520	19¢	$100	0xba67fd…
07-22 01:18:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	207	12¢	$25	0x4941d2…
07-22 01:16:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x31dc47…
07-22 01:12:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:10 UTC	Up	BUY	215	12¢	$25	0xaf5459…
07-22 01:07:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:05 UTC	Up	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x94e8e1…
07-22 01:02:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0xeedb45…
07-22 00:56:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 00:55 UTC	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x6ef4fc…
07-22 00:50:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 00:50 UTC	Up	BUY	82	30¢	$25	0xef2505…
07-22 00:43:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 00:40 UTC	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x0aaa2a…
07-15 23:36:14	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	528	58¢	$306	0xaf4eda…
07-15 10:25:43	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	162	58¢	$94	0x8b5352…
07-12 01:19:05	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	528	20¢	$107	0xe2dd6e…
07-12 01:16:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$104	0x64cb69…
07-11 18:16:19	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	162	21¢	$34	0xaa6ed0…