Realized P&L (90d)
-$589
Unrealized P&L
-$43
Hit rate
71.2%
Resolved (90d)
977
Trades (90d)
9,359
14,341 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$101.1K
$147.2K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$864
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-03 06:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 208 days
Categories
Other
53% 66% +$505
Politics
43% 65% +$922
Tech
2% 75% +$12
Pop-Culture
1% 69% +$35
Sports
0% 33% -$8
Crypto
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 295 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes -327 -$253 70¢ $-227 +$26 10-31 09:31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +402 $140 34¢ $135 -$5 11-02 14:22
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes -102 -$87 92¢ $-94 -$6 09-05 00:42
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No +370 $134 24¢ $91 -$43 09-21 17:29
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No -50 -$49 90¢ $-45 +$3 09-23 12:52
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +51 $43 84¢ $43 -$1 10-19 13:23
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No -33 -$24 84¢ $-27 -$3 08-16 14:36
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -25 -$23 95¢ $-24 -$1 06-04 01:24
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +32 $23 74¢ $24 +$1 07-30 07:48
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? No -16 -$10 94¢ $-15 -$5 07-01 08:03
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +22 $18 69¢ $15 -$3 09-14 21:45
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? No +100 $69 15¢ $15 -$54 07-21 16:49
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes +34 $9 36¢ $12 +$3 09-01 19:13
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Yes +20 $9 48¢ $10 +$1 05-01 01:27
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes +160 $15 6¢ $10 -$6 07-20 12:07
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +13 $8 70¢ $9 +$1 05-11 22:36
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat? Yes -13 -$11 68¢ $-9 +$2 09-24 21:17
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat? No -12 -$11 70¢ $-8 +$2 08-09 15:24
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 No +10 $6 84¢ $8 +$2 07-16 18:58
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? Yes +95 $5 7¢ $7 +$1 08-06 23:19
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No -6 -$6 96¢ $-6 $0 06-29 01:43
Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat? Yes -6 -$5 99¢ $-5 $0 09-23 12:46
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes -7 -$6 60¢ $-4 +$1 09-29 11:29
Blue tsunami in 2026? No +12 $5 32¢ $4 -$1 05-15 05:58
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +64 -$37 5¢ $3 +$40 10-01 17:41
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? Yes +13 $3 24¢ $3 +$0 10-29 03:37
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +82 $3 4¢ $3 +$0 10-26 15:56
saudi airspace closed by december 31 2026 Yes +21 $5 14¢ $3 -$2 09-20 23:22
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +6 $0 46¢ $3 +$3 07-25 19:45
Blue wave in 2026? No +31 $2 8¢ $3 +$1 10-29 10:00