Nifty-Selling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.18K

Unrealized P&L

+$85

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

4,666

Trades

5,283

lifetime

Volume

$45.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-27 12:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 162 days

Categories

Politics

45% 28% +$1,566

Crypto

43% 51% -$542

Other

10% 27% +$378

Sports

1% 26% -$136

Tech

1% 50% -$89

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 177 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes		-1,000	-$103	1¢	$-13	+$90	05-01 09:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	—	+10	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	10-27 13:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	11	$5.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$1,189	04-05 11:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	9	$1.6K	3,162	3,162	+0	Yes	+$92	04-07 23:05
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	10	$1.1K	863	863	+0	No	+$19	03-04 21:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$979	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$879	04-07 23:10
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	5	$963	1,800	1,800	+0	No	+$575	09-12 11:38
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	23	$943	1,500	1,500	-0	Yes	+$44	03-19 15:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$864	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$618	02-28 16:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	7	$831	714	690	+24	No	+$82	04-09 17:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	16	$784	2,450	2,450	+0	No	-$270	05-31 01:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$730	150,004	0	+150,004	No	-$730	06-03 05:16
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$548	500	500	+0	Yes	-$111	04-11 01:20
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	3	$540	1,000	500	+500	No	-$310	04-12 18:32
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	4	$536	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	10-20 08:11
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	7	$535	1,200	2,200	-1,000	No	+$77	06-03 01:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$514	25,800	800	+25,000	No	-$277	05-26 08:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	7	$475	1,200	800	+400	No	-$43	05-07 20:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$475	500	500	+0	open	—	06-03 01:31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$468	400	400	+0	No	+$28	04-07 23:51
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	5	$465	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$105	04-01 14:03
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	25	$437	473	330	+143	No	-$13	05-15 13:28
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	4	$421	319	319	+0	No	-$12	04-08 14:09
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	4	$385	992	492	+500	No	-$100	04-09 17:33
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	2	$345	200	200	+0	No	+$13	04-12 10:01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$320	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$60	04-07 22:39
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	15	$320	800	800	+0	No	+$24	03-23 12:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$309	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$112	03-31 15:06
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$269	300	300	+0	Yes	+$18	03-04 11:56
will the us invade iran by march 31	5	$258	800	800	+0	No	+$33	03-14 13:06
will trump cut off trade with spain	10	$250	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$10	03-04 08:41
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$247	600	600	+0	No	+$49	04-12 10:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x8b08d7…
10-27 12:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5a6492…
10-27 12:54:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x220bfc…
10-27 12:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc37999…
10-27 12:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x89a1e9…
10-27 12:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x090602…
10-27 11:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb6bc53…
10-27 11:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2f511a…
10-27 09:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x63a01b…
10-27 09:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x769925…
10-27 08:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xdaf1af…
10-27 07:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xbb5253…
10-27 07:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x288035…
10-27 07:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd95af4…
10-27 06:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x95607f…
10-27 06:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x3e6893…
10-27 06:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc09912…
10-27 06:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x100c7e…
10-27 05:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1d5595…
10-27 04:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xef1fee…
10-27 04:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xc9f69c…
10-27 03:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8e9879…
10-27 02:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x56225e…
10-27 02:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xf8dff0…
10-27 01:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xcde5cd…
10-27 01:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xaaa405…
10-27 01:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x10eea4…
10-27 01:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x312b26…
10-27 00:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x486015…
10-27 00:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x31e903…
10-26 23:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x67d473…
10-26 23:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xc1ecfc…
10-26 22:36:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x24c982…
10-26 22:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xbd5d9c…
10-26 22:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xec0cd1…
10-26 21:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x910502…
10-26 20:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xf6fb9d…
10-26 20:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2ae61b…
10-26 20:54:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x3fec45…
10-26 19:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xea852a…
10-26 19:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xa153f1…
10-26 19:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf53d8f…
10-26 17:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5ead93…
10-26 16:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x97d8dd…
10-26 16:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe325a6…
10-26 15:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xcfbbd0…
10-26 14:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xd54c13…
10-26 12:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x0ee9d4…
10-26 10:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2952bf…
10-26 10:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xfba5cf…
10-26 10:34:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x048fb3…
10-26 10:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x285147…
10-26 10:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0bea26…
10-26 09:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4d4337…
10-26 09:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb3ed70…
10-26 07:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x25c09a…
10-26 07:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5f3ad5…
10-26 07:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2d03a2…
10-26 06:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x68f522…
10-26 06:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x38a652…
10-26 06:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xaa9a0e…
10-26 05:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xa4188d…
10-26 05:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xaac603…
10-26 05:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x31ce32…
10-26 04:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xc818eb…
10-26 04:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xcdeab9…
10-26 04:14:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8e30d4…
10-26 03:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xae29de…
10-26 03:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x25d1f6…
10-26 03:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x19a207…
10-26 03:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xb02ef0…
10-26 02:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xbb1d08…
10-26 02:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x634a9d…
10-26 02:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xbc769a…
10-26 01:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x993a75…
10-26 00:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x93ef13…
10-25 23:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xc6199a…
10-25 23:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd58159…
10-25 23:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x11155a…
10-25 22:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xdac7eb…
10-25 22:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb3eb75…
10-25 22:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xdc2e9a…
10-25 22:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x665406…
10-25 22:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa71d6b…
10-25 22:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe7bc28…
10-25 22:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3f4c89…
10-25 22:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbf8482…
10-25 22:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x0a1866…
10-25 21:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa1fe0f…
10-25 21:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x627173…
10-25 21:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa8e123…
10-25 21:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0xda89b8…
10-25 21:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x38c7e8…
10-25 20:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8db9e5…
10-25 20:31:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x87837d…
10-25 20:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7b6859…
10-25 20:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xe7a2a7…
10-25 20:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x496b13…
10-25 19:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x519259…
10-25 19:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xff0f64…