Novel-Licorice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$539

Unrealized P&L

+$3.26K

Hit rate

89.5%

Resolved

Trades

238

lifetime

Volume

$147.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$620

Open exposure

$31.5K

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-29 12:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 83% +$1,246

Other

9% 36% -$707

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	-8,648	-$7,737	94¢	$-8173	-$435	06-08 08:40
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+11,271	$5,761	72¢	$8.1K	+$2,297	10-29 10:40
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,762	$5,146	94¢	$5.4K	+$299	10-20 17:29
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	+16,591	$4,226	30¢	$4.9K	+$669	09-17 11:07
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+4,013	$2,950	88¢	$3.6K	+$601	06-17 18:09
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-500	-$464	97¢	$-484	-$20	05-31 15:12
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	-416	-$329	98¢	$-409	-$80	06-02 13:21
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	-200	-$146	95¢	$-191	-$45	06-01 13:28
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-191	-$153	94¢	$-180	-$27	05-28 01:55
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-153	-$147	99¢	$-151	-$4	05-29 17:29
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+10	$0	3¢	$0	$0	08-09 09:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	3	$25.9K	13,000	13,000	+0	No	+$16	03-18 13:45
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?	10	$14.2K	9,335	5,413	+3,922	No	+$513	02-12 11:45
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	6	$10.4K	1,466	10,114	-8,648	open	—	06-08 08:40
will ethereum reach 3600 january 26 1	1	$9.7K	9,677	0	+9,677	No	+$10	01-31 03:42
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	7	$9.2K	4,771	4,784	-12	Yes	+$327	04-03 14:02
will ethereum reach 3400 in march 2026	1	$8.1K	8,074	0	+8,074	No	+$16	03-26 06:25
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	32	$7.6K	12,471	1,200	+11,271	open	—	10-29 10:40
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	5	$5.1K	5,762	0	+5,762	open	—	10-20 17:29
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	12	$4.3K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	09-24 11:35
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	12	$4.2K	16,591	0	+16,591	open	—	09-17 11:07
Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$74	04-24 13:14
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$3.5K	3,473	0	+3,473	No	+$3	03-26 06:18
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$6	02-19 08:03
will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$6	02-19 08:03
will ethereum reach 3200 in february 2026	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$21	02-19 13:05
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$3.0K	4,013	0	+4,013	open	—	06-17 18:09
Over $1M committed to the Fluent public sale?	5	$2.9K	2,600	1,000	+1,600	Yes	+$692	04-09 12:34
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?	32	$2.7K	0	2,782	-2,782	No	-$107	02-12 07:35
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	5	$2.6K	3,500	3,500	+0	open	—	09-24 16:25
will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	5	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$8	02-19 06:55
will ethereum reach 3000 in february 2026	9	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$22	02-19 12:56
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	2	$1.9K	0	2,000	-2,000	No	-$68	06-10 06:59
Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?	3	$1.6K	900	900	+0	No	-$22	04-24 12:41
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$1.6K	614	1,114	-500	open	—	05-31 15:12
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$1.4K	979	979	+0	No	-$38	04-24 12:40
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?	18	$1.2K	0	1,252	-1,252	No	-$100	02-12 05:54
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$1.1K	607	607	+0	No	+$120	04-03 14:02
Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2026?	1	$997	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$3	03-26 06:20
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	2	$979	0	1,000	-1,000	No	-$21	06-14 23:07
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?	1	$913	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$187	01-05 22:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 12:49:01	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	787	3¢	$24	0x8b642c…
10-29 12:47:32	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	2,213	3¢	$66	0x5ca310…
10-29 11:48:13	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	700	6¢	$42	0x1acb6c…
10-29 11:47:55	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	SELL	1,461	3¢	$46	0x76c01f…
10-29 11:45:19	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	99	56¢	$55	0xe694ce…
10-29 11:40:13	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	976	4¢	$40	0x4cb4e7…
10-29 11:35:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	BUY	101	56¢	$57	0xb99908…
10-29 11:30:04	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf4fb34…
10-29 11:06:17	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x903700…
10-29 10:57:50	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x89fbde…
10-29 10:40:32	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x64c3d4…
10-29 10:40:20	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x6eb6b4…
10-29 10:36:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	900	4¢	$38	0xe70ccd…
10-29 10:30:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	923	27¢	$249	0xc6d8ce…
10-29 10:26:35	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	126	25¢	$32	0x52dff7…
10-29 10:25:29	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x3d6512…
10-29 10:18:25	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	1,000	37¢	$368	0xa6199a…
10-29 10:15:23	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xcaf518…
10-29 10:13:50	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,000	76¢	$762	0x892366…
10-29 09:23:23	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	177	37¢	$65	0x8ed895…
10-29 09:23:08	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x317efe…
10-29 09:22:53	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	BUY	519	25¢	$130	0x33aa18…
10-20 17:29:32	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	86¢	$215	0x8e7b57…
10-20 12:15:29	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,894	89¢	$1,686	0xc924fd…
10-20 12:08:18	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x8d30b6…
10-20 12:07:35	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa00d7c…
10-20 07:48:01	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,512	90¢	$3,151	0x1fd05e…
10-11 21:04:25	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x65085f…
10-11 21:04:25	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	70	55¢	$38	0x5b6db8…
10-11 21:04:23	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	154	55¢	$85	0xacde82…
10-11 21:04:22	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x1e085b…
10-11 00:32:58	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	126	55¢	$70	0x0225ee…
09-26 22:20:35	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	300	55¢	$165	0xfdb35b…
09-26 22:20:23	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x6596c8…
09-26 08:02:44	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xd663dc…
09-26 07:32:12	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xd9170d…
09-26 00:50:05	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	150	55¢	$82	0xd2afd1…
09-24 16:25:38	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,651	20¢	$330	0x6c2d62…
09-24 14:25:36	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,848	20¢	$370	0xb47799…
09-24 11:35:38	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5,000	28¢	$1,400	0xfc2a8b…
09-17 11:07:45	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0xd3b0af…
09-16 00:52:00	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	26¢	$8	0x0592e2…
09-15 20:07:19	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,837	3¢	$57	0xb1d3d9…
09-15 07:39:21	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,357	26¢	$353	0x5d569f…
09-14 19:32:52	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	76	14¢	$11	0x5af82a…
09-13 20:56:46	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,064	33¢	$351	0xebfed5…
08-24 04:17:42	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	32	54¢	$17	0x8a0504…
08-24 04:09:49	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xd80674…
08-24 03:59:21	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x25e20d…
08-21 08:53:43	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,741	54¢	$940	0x5ab243…
08-21 08:39:18	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	77	54¢	$41	0x10c10a…
08-21 08:38:37	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x5b9f4b…
08-21 08:27:15	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,000	51¢	$1,020	0xe3cded…
08-20 18:48:22	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xce6a8f…
08-20 18:47:39	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,000	57¢	$1,140	0xad9711…
08-20 18:47:09	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	120	10¢	$12	0x31c69c…
08-20 18:47:07	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,667	10¢	$167	0x16aa74…
08-20 16:30:49	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	95	64¢	$61	0x82195e…
08-20 16:23:57	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	278	64¢	$178	0x62d4ec…
08-20 16:23:16	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	278	64¢	$178	0xe2754f…
08-20 16:23:06	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	350	64¢	$224	0xbaa342…
08-19 19:21:33	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	56¢	$560	0x516f21…
08-09 09:37:15	Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x4a5d76…
08-09 09:35:28	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	76	28¢	$21	0x27d134…
06-20 03:16:56	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,673	50¢	$836	0x931c4a…
06-17 23:07:46	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	57	50¢	$29	0x84c5be…
06-17 22:37:37	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x2f5964…
06-17 22:35:47	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xd83bc2…
06-17 18:11:08	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	170	50¢	$85	0x2dc744…
06-17 18:09:43	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,000	71¢	$1,420	0x1b50fb…
06-14 23:07:31	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	685	98¢	$671	0xac8153…
06-11 19:12:37	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,000	76¢	$1,520	0x58785c…
06-11 15:24:46	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	315	98¢	$308	0x839151…
06-10 06:59:10	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	83	97¢	$80	0xfec090…
06-10 06:57:27	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	1,917	97¢	$1,852	0x7b835c…
06-08 08:40:54	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,414	89¢	$3,039	0x3cd443…
06-05 08:47:25	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	654	53¢	$347	0x156eaa…
06-04 13:32:52	Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x2aa743…
06-04 11:24:28	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x0674b3…
06-04 01:20:22	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	128	53¢	$68	0xae0f0a…
06-03 16:42:57	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	208	53¢	$110	0xa2bf54…
06-03 14:45:46	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x135f8e…
06-03 09:34:18	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,200	89¢	$1,068	0x28181a…
06-02 13:21:05	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	416	79¢	$329	0xaa2a38…
06-01 14:17:39	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,500	51¢	$765	0xfc272e…
06-01 13:28:17	Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	39	73¢	$28	0x7df423…
06-01 12:21:20	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	7,145	24¢	$1,715	0xfa38d7…
06-01 10:42:58	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,855	24¢	$685	0x304768…
05-31 15:12:25	Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,114	92¢	$1,029	0x6c60eb…
05-30 09:14:07	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,500	52¢	$1,300	0x29ff40…
05-30 09:12:55	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,000	52¢	$1,040	0xca6083…
05-30 07:56:28	Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	185	95¢	$175	0x0c528d…
05-29 17:29:47	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	153	96¢	$147	0x25f913…
05-29 17:16:34	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	4,500	90¢	$4,050	0xde7af2…
05-29 17:15:37	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0xa5ceee…
05-28 01:55:23	Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	142	80¢	$114	0x464c9d…
05-27 18:55:18	Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	78	95¢	$74	0xe21cd7…
05-27 14:28:52	Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	49	80¢	$39	0x71ce56…
05-20 21:01:36	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,442	61¢	$880	0xf2b9f3…
05-16 09:29:51	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	62¢	$310	0x2a1695…