Flippant-Trader — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$406

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,277

lifetime

Volume

$43.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$69

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 19:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

74% 50% +$99

Politics

18% 100% +$307

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes		+72	$37	55¢	$39	+$3	06-06 00:01
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No		+58	$23	52¢	$30	+$7	05-28 15:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on january 28 2026	47	$2.5K	2,025	2,544	-519	open	—	01-28 21:08
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	open	—	01-12 16:13
spx up or down on february 11 2026	5	$1.3K	1,328	350	+978	open	—	02-11 21:00
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	41	$1.3K	1,241	1,281	-39	open	—	02-01 05:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	9	$1.1K	982	610	+372	open	—	02-04 17:46
bitcoin up or down january 16 8pm et	9	$1.0K	525	525	+0	open	—	01-17 02:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	27	$1.0K	1,548	1,554	-7	open	—	04-28 14:44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	9	$974	628	643	-15	open	—	02-05 03:20
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	36	$878	2,580	753	+1,827	open	—	03-26 21:39
spx up or down on april 7 2026	6	$875	602	602	+0	open	—	04-07 22:45
spx up or down on january 7 2026	22	$844	1,457	1,112	+345	open	—	01-07 20:06
will ethereum dip to 2000 in february 2026	9	$843	976	600	+376	open	—	02-05 03:18
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?	19	$816	882	320	+561	open	—	03-10 00:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	12	$775	1,200	525	+675	open	—	04-10 07:05
wti up or down on april 13 2026	6	$764	392	392	+0	open	—	04-13 17:49
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	26	$721	1,327	1,133	+194	open	—	01-06 11:10
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	10	$683	600	600	+0	open	—	02-01 02:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	9	$681	713	706	+7	open	—	04-29 08:47
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	17	$625	518	1,714	-1,196	open	—	01-21 23:00
spx up or down on january 16 2026	21	$617	744	524	+220	open	—	01-16 17:39
spx up or down on february 17 2026	8	$570	846	846	+0	open	—	02-17 20:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$530	400	900	-500	open	—	01-17 05:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	13	$522	845	837	+8	open	—	04-12 22:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$504	600	600	+0	open	—	05-10 15:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$482	800	400	+400	open	—	01-13 14:45
spx up or down on march 2 2026	15	$476	613	613	+0	open	—	03-02 20:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$469	476	289	+187	open	—	03-01 00:20
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	5	$452	335	335	+0	open	—	03-30 23:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	7	$448	348	348	+0	open	—	04-14 15:41
spx up or down on january 26 2026	14	$438	532	616	-84	open	—	01-26 15:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 19:15:51	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xb8b7fe…
06-08 12:47:57	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	182	13¢	$24	0x9438a4…
06-08 12:28:09	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xb7a293…
06-08 12:26:37	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x2564e2…
06-08 12:23:48	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x32fb52…
06-08 10:35:42	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	84	27¢	$23	0x607620…
06-08 10:35:00	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0xba77df…
06-08 10:34:54	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xa8a362…
06-08 10:34:46	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x6e4c6b…
06-08 10:34:36	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x312c97…
06-08 10:02:09	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	SELL	26	30¢	$8	0x3b7c67…
06-08 10:02:06	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x68fed7…
06-08 09:56:24	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x3d9ebf…
06-08 09:56:24	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	26	29¢	$7	0x2b9beb…
06-06 00:01:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	51¢	$37	0x2477de…
06-05 12:54:51	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0xb344bb…
06-05 12:54:49	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	180	21¢	$38	0x23a338…
06-05 12:54:48	spy up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0xe77957…
06-01 17:40:32	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0x0ba035…
05-30 21:41:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0xc5e906…
05-28 15:31:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0xeff30f…
05-26 08:43:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0xc6e9b0…
05-25 21:54:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xada259…
05-25 01:36:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x0169f0…
05-24 20:09:17	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x94dcac…
05-24 19:56:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0x8121a2…
05-24 04:30:21	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xcb49e3…
05-23 22:05:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	111	20¢	$22	0xff9fa1…
05-21 13:56:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	18	65¢	$12	0x28d6d3…
05-21 10:19:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0xf39b50…
05-18 16:40:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x29e204…
05-18 16:38:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	150	15¢	$22	0x6be728…
05-15 09:51:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x329fa2…
05-14 14:01:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	62	22¢	$14	0xc7d3b2…
05-14 14:01:29	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xd1637f…
05-14 14:00:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	128	22¢	$28	0xff5144…
05-14 10:11:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	110	25¢	$28	0x417a75…
05-14 10:11:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xa30b7e…
05-14 10:11:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x8ca738…
05-14 10:11:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x69ce4a…
05-14 10:11:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x5e19e3…
05-14 10:11:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x08e6d7…
05-14 10:11:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	29	25¢	$7	0x920786…
05-14 10:11:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x4fb13a…
05-10 22:18:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	4	35¢	$2	0xad1907…
05-10 22:17:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x98b907…
05-10 22:17:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x81d68d…
05-10 22:17:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x34a7ea…
05-10 22:08:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	175	35¢	$61	0x0182de…
05-10 21:42:43	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf58e05…
05-10 21:36:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x9d87bb…
05-10 15:43:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	300	59¢	$177	0xac3ab8…
05-10 15:42:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	300	59¢	$177	0xa8f8a0…
05-07 17:35:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	600	25¢	$150	0x499ea9…
05-01 19:31:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xbe1f70…
05-01 11:17:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xf0299b…
04-30 14:37:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	108	44¢	$47	0x44f2a7…
04-30 14:00:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0x72e9bc…
04-30 13:40:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	105	36¢	$38	0x753260…
04-30 13:38:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x54227c…
04-30 13:31:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x60d36c…
04-30 13:31:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x11064e…
04-30 13:31:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x0de0f7…
04-30 13:31:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xabb0dc…
04-30 13:31:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x4cb188…
04-30 13:30:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x8785dd…
04-30 13:30:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x226c4c…
04-30 13:30:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x02b3cd…
04-30 13:30:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x231a41…
04-30 13:29:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x86a54f…
04-29 19:13:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	261	63¢	$164	0x914111…
04-29 14:47:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x01ea89…
04-29 14:41:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	53	41¢	$22	0x7d729b…
04-29 14:40:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x989260…
04-29 08:47:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	SELL	576	30¢	$171	0x5dec1c…
04-29 00:08:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	164	42¢	$69	0x270e14…
04-28 23:52:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0x739e47…
04-28 14:44:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	202	0¢	$1	0xdcd310…
04-27 18:21:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0x5e8a1a…
04-26 22:46:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	142	39¢	$55	0x11f4a4…
04-26 22:24:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	150	38¢	$57	0xef810a…
04-26 22:23:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	60	37¢	$22	0x03c118…
04-26 22:22:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	103	37¢	$38	0x8c22f1…
04-21 18:10:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	150	52¢	$78	0xa5fcc0…
04-20 18:32:12	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xc80ae4…
04-20 18:32:10	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	239	11¢	$26	0x83434d…
04-20 18:31:58	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0xf67db5…
04-20 18:31:54	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x364c71…
04-20 18:31:34	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	95	12¢	$11	0xee48cd…
04-20 18:31:26	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x8c6393…
04-20 18:31:22	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xf8bb20…
04-20 18:31:18	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x380c2d…
04-20 18:31:12	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x9e7bf5…
04-20 18:31:10	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x92fe93…
04-20 18:30:46	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xe5cc49…
04-20 18:30:40	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x81c54f…
04-20 17:57:48	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	SELL	257	8¢	$21	0xaea1f3…
04-20 10:52:20	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	70	25¢	$18	0x3165be…
04-20 10:52:08	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x82be40…
04-20 10:51:52	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	BUY	112	25¢	$28	0x37a52b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	138	$22.1M	33,672	06-09 14:39
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	125	$20.2K	3,605	06-08 19:10
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	84	$904.5K	16,083	06-08 13:18
Mountainous-Elongation 0x5fe5…8b99	79	$18.9K	4,786	04-12 09:52
e25247f2da2a2462f03c936c379b7ab0 0xdefe…17f4	65	$1.95M	9,817	06-08 19:31
Quintessential-Cofactor 0xe754…19f4	63	$5.41K	347	05-11 13:28
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	62	$10.1K	3,681	06-08 19:50
(anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8	62	$5.48K	314	06-08 06:27