Flippant-Trader — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$406

Unrealized P&L

+$227

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,375

lifetime

Volume

$49.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$1.08K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 20:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

77% 50% +$99

Politics

16% 100% +$307

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+1,682	$790	60¢	$1.0K	+$228	07-20 08:25
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	-54	$-45	90¢	$-48	$-3	06-15 15:40
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	+19	$13	84¢	$16	+$3	06-17 16:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on january 28 2026	47	$2.5K	2,025	2,544	-519	open	—	01-28 21:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	31	$2.3K	2,324	2,324	+0	open	—	06-24 15:44
Fed rate hike in 2026?	19	$2.1K	2,874	1,192	+1,682	open	—	07-20 08:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	open	—	01-12 16:13
spx up or down on february 11 2026	5	$1.3K	1,328	350	+978	open	—	02-11 21:00
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	41	$1.3K	1,241	1,281	-39	open	—	02-01 05:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	9	$1.1K	982	610	+372	open	—	02-04 17:46
bitcoin up or down january 16 8pm et	9	$1.0K	525	525	+0	open	—	01-17 02:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	27	$1.0K	1,548	1,554	-7	open	—	04-28 14:44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	9	$974	628	643	-15	open	—	02-05 03:20
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	36	$878	2,580	753	+1,827	open	—	03-26 21:39
spx up or down on april 7 2026	6	$875	602	602	+0	open	—	04-07 22:45
spx up or down on january 7 2026	22	$844	1,457	1,112	+345	open	—	01-07 20:06
will ethereum dip to 2000 in february 2026	9	$843	976	600	+376	open	—	02-05 03:18
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?	19	$816	882	320	+561	open	—	03-10 00:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	12	$775	1,200	525	+675	open	—	04-10 07:05
wti up or down on april 13 2026	6	$764	392	392	+0	open	—	04-13 17:49
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	26	$721	1,327	1,133	+194	open	—	01-06 11:10
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	10	$683	600	600	+0	open	—	02-01 02:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	9	$681	713	706	+7	open	—	04-29 08:47
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	17	$625	518	1,714	-1,196	open	—	01-21 23:00
spx up or down on january 16 2026	21	$617	744	524	+220	open	—	01-16 17:39
spx up or down on february 17 2026	8	$570	846	846	+0	open	—	02-17 20:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$530	400	900	-500	open	—	01-17 05:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	13	$522	845	837	+8	open	—	04-12 22:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$504	600	600	+0	open	—	05-10 15:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$482	800	400	+400	open	—	01-13 14:45
spx up or down on march 2 2026	15	$476	613	613	+0	open	—	03-02 20:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$469	476	289	+187	open	—	03-01 00:20
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	4	$461	58	458	-400	open	—	06-24 00:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 20:23:12	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xc98c7a…
07-20 18:58:22	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	120	35¢	$42	0xda7b88…
07-20 18:58:00	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	120	39¢	$47	0x1c9110…
07-20 14:16:42	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	195	25¢	$49	0x592003…
07-20 14:15:45	spx up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xa00a23…
07-20 08:25:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xf57c03…
07-13 17:59:38	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0xdbab75…
07-12 23:35:35	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Up	BUY	32	33¢	$11	0xa9cf1d…
07-09 13:57:14	spx up or down on july 9 2026	Down	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x3c5ee0…
07-08 17:40:08	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	167	15¢	$26	0x40421b…
07-08 17:39:35	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xb509a6…
07-02 12:33:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	53¢	$212	0xd4810a…
07-02 12:32:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x448388…
07-02 12:31:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0xf160fc…
07-02 12:31:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	416	54¢	$225	0x4e92c8…
07-01 23:59:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	54¢	$104	0x968e91…
07-01 22:43:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x2e6e59…
07-01 22:10:50	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	768	54¢	$415	0x7f9b83…
06-30 20:38:10	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	705	26¢	$183	0x7564df…
06-30 17:20:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	SELL	199	55¢	$108	0x193c2e…
06-30 17:18:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0xf6ab19…
06-29 21:45:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x058c81…
06-29 00:23:28	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Up	SELL	240	33¢	$79	0xe0f6f3…
06-29 00:01:41	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	240	40¢	$96	0xa16f73…
06-28 08:07:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x85b46f…
06-28 04:25:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	140	22¢	$32	0xe87818…
06-28 04:25:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x091ef2…
06-28 04:22:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xa474ef…
06-28 04:22:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$4	0x55584f…
06-28 03:52:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x80f788…
06-28 03:52:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xbad001…
06-28 00:45:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xb8dc43…
06-28 00:45:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x5d2dd7…
06-28 00:27:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	11	22¢	$3	0xeb7418…
06-27 23:32:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	32	23¢	$7	0x2c7ab2…
06-27 23:31:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	56	23¢	$13	0xcb25a2…
06-27 20:02:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xaa546a…
06-25 11:54:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	299	18¢	$54	0x590ca1…
06-25 03:45:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xc4eb71…
06-24 15:44:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	400	44¢	$176	0xef489c…
06-24 11:52:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	400	43¢	$172	0x01ac56…
06-24 03:11:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	99	54¢	$53	0x5a8660…
06-24 03:09:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	101	54¢	$55	0x82ebdf…
06-24 00:29:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	SELL	114	97¢	$111	0xd86c2c…
06-22 20:51:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xbd2e73…
06-22 20:48:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	700	49¢	$343	0x201613…
06-22 13:37:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	47¢	$235	0xf5e799…
06-21 21:56:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xbc0161…
06-21 21:54:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	454	60¢	$273	0xad4c9a…
06-21 21:49:14	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0x2f661a…
06-21 17:40:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	27	32¢	$9	0xeba207…
06-21 09:10:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x6c3d04…
06-20 11:24:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc3e998…
06-20 11:24:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	42	50¢	$21	0xc3e998…
06-20 10:57:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xc830f3…
06-20 10:56:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x1fe8ca…
06-20 10:20:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xd87e33…
06-20 10:20:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x84fe38…
06-20 09:15:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x6b88af…
06-20 09:13:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x6b7f45…
06-20 09:13:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	36	51¢	$18	0x4b1e2b…
06-20 09:13:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	14	51¢	$7	0x84bf50…
06-20 09:12:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	199	51¢	$102	0x39bffe…
06-19 19:50:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	190	54¢	$103	0x23b220…
06-19 07:01:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	190	48¢	$91	0x1db0e7…
06-18 21:13:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x18187d…
06-18 09:43:38	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0xcc17ae…
06-18 09:32:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	14	54¢	$7	0x2798f5…
06-18 09:27:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	54¢	$8	0x5cc0a7…
06-18 09:24:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	37	54¢	$20	0x2cc6f8…
06-18 09:19:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xb9c3a2…
06-18 09:18:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	46	54¢	$25	0xff6470…
06-18 09:09:56	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x28066f…
06-17 21:18:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	59¢	$60	0x03ef6a…
06-17 20:56:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	90	79¢	$71	0x74ee51…
06-17 16:11:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x98cc34…
06-17 16:09:37	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0xbbe628…
06-17 14:51:07	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xd8002e…
06-17 14:19:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x4dc2e8…
06-17 02:32:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x8429d2…
06-16 22:58:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x95dc43…
06-16 16:41:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	SELL	313	95¢	$298	0xbaa261…
06-16 15:18:04	spx up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x7d5af1…
06-16 11:00:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	115	61¢	$70	0xe32a0b…
06-15 15:40:57	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	42	84¢	$36	0x59b39e…
06-15 13:51:48	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	11	84¢	$9	0x98ad87…
06-15 11:52:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	224	34¢	$76	0x400dea…
06-13 22:32:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x81b642…
06-13 22:31:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xe7a6c0…
06-12 19:33:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x2ebb00…
06-12 19:31:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xfcb82f…
06-12 19:31:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	61	21¢	$13	0xec0560…
06-12 19:31:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	42	21¢	$9	0x9aecfd…
06-12 19:31:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	57	21¢	$12	0x7bc34b…
06-12 19:31:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	53	21¢	$11	0x0e67b7…
06-12 19:20:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	16	21¢	$3	0x67d8be…
06-09 23:15:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0xa8fef7…
06-09 22:58:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	215	29¢	$62	0xf7db69…
06-08 19:15:51	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xb8b7fe…
06-08 12:47:57	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	182	13¢	$24	0x9438a4…