Flippant-Trader — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$250

Unrealized P&L

-$1.28K

Hit rate

59.7%

Resolved

234

Trades

1,826

lifetime

Volume

$68.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$1.87K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Other

78% 45% +$199

Politics

15% 62% -$341

Crypto

7% 47% +$392

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-1,074	-$717	98¢	$-1050	-$334	07-17 16:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,087	$491	46¢	$505	+$14	11-02 00:00
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	+1,325	$671	6¢	$86	-$585	10-28 07:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+268	$138	24¢	$63	-$75	11-04 16:48
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	+1,144	$234	4¢	$50	-$184	10-14 19:58
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	+1,016	$303	5¢	$49	-$254	10-22 15:00
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	+200	$78	20¢	$40	-$38	10-30 03:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November?	No	+97	$22	31¢	$30	+$8	11-04 17:19
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+0	-$168	24¢	$0	+$168	10-02 15:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate hike in 2026?	85	$6.0K	5,979	5,979	+0	Yes	+$660	09-11 12:12
spx up or down on january 28 2026	47	$2.5K	2,025	2,544	-519	Down	+$38	01-28 21:08
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	28	$2.5K	1,495	1,495	+0	open	—	11-03 17:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	31	$2.3K	2,324	2,324	+0	No	+$153	06-24 15:44
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	Yes	-$9	01-12 16:13
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	16	$1.4K	485	1,559	-1,074	open	—	07-17 16:24
spx up or down on february 11 2026	5	$1.3K	1,328	350	+978	Down	+$2	02-11 21:00
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	41	$1.3K	1,241	1,281	-39	No	-$347	02-01 05:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	9	$1.1K	982	610	+372	Yes	-$34	02-04 17:46
bitcoin up or down january 16 8pm et	9	$1.0K	525	525	+0	Down	+$5	01-17 02:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	27	$1.0K	1,548	1,554	-7	No	-$126	04-28 14:44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	9	$974	628	643	-15	No	+$262	02-05 03:20
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	26	$946	1,708	383	+1,325	open	—	10-28 07:25
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	36	$878	2,580	753	+1,827	Yes	-$578	03-26 21:39
spx up or down on april 7 2026	6	$875	602	602	+0	Up	+$143	04-07 22:45
spx up or down on january 7 2026	22	$844	1,457	1,112	+345	Down	+$87	01-07 20:06
will ethereum dip to 2000 in february 2026	9	$843	976	600	+376	Yes	-$23	02-05 03:18
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?	19	$816	882	320	+561	No	+$241	03-10 00:04
will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	15	$791	1,108	559	+549	Yes	+$713	08-21 17:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	12	$775	1,200	525	+675	No	+$706	04-10 07:05
wti up or down on april 13 2026	6	$764	392	392	+0	Up	-$2	04-13 17:49
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	26	$721	1,327	1,133	+194	No	-$165	01-06 11:10
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	16	$705	1,918	1,918	+0	open	—	10-02 15:54
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	10	$683	600	600	+0	Yes	-$173	02-01 02:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	9	$681	713	706	+7	Yes	-$152	04-29 08:47
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	5	$666	683	1,664	-980	Yes	-$655	11-04 00:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	19	$625	690	689	+1	No	-$51	06-17 20:56
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	17	$625	518	1,714	-1,196	No	-$860	01-21 23:00
spx up or down on january 16 2026	21	$617	744	524	+220	Down	+$219	01-16 17:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	10	$600	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	09-11 02:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 17:19:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November?	No	BUY	97	23¢	$22	0x9c2587…
11-04 17:11:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xa88f18…
11-04 16:48:25	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	89	26¢	$23	0x5f35be…
11-04 02:41:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	41	45¢	$18	0x96532a…
11-04 02:39:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x134135…
11-04 02:24:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	233	45¢	$105	0x41b7ec…
11-04 02:24:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	74	45¢	$33	0x3c19cc…
11-04 00:04:18	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	SELL	683	13¢	$89	0x3d3d7c…
11-03 17:17:09	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	436	25¢	$109	0xe8adf3…
11-03 17:16:39	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	187	98¢	$184	0x4bc55f…
11-03 17:15:33	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	247	25¢	$62	0xfca486…
11-02 00:00:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0x097590…
11-01 23:51:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	58¢	$10	0xd55613…
11-01 23:50:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xaa2f04…
10-30 03:12:27	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0xc2359b…
10-30 01:57:16	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xd6f72b…
10-30 01:37:51	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	159	39¢	$62	0xeb3e63…
10-28 07:25:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x3c7fa1…
10-28 01:24:50	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	400	3¢	$10	0xa4ed18…
10-25 20:24:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x488139…
10-25 20:14:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	19¢	$5	0xefdc8a…
10-24 16:16:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	57¢	$85	0xf6150b…
10-24 15:40:59	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x90054f…
10-22 15:00:39	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x0adec3…
10-22 09:18:09	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xb0f10a…
10-21 22:45:48	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	400	28¢	$112	0x7333f1…
10-21 19:01:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	39¢	$7	0x9e48d5…
10-19 11:40:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	81	24¢	$19	0xa08094…
10-19 11:38:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x52e1a5…
10-19 11:38:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0xa92c56…
10-19 11:37:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x4cf189…
10-19 11:36:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x9acf9b…
10-19 01:12:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x3516bf…
10-18 23:20:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	89	37¢	$33	0x2ff717…
10-18 23:00:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x742ac2…
10-18 23:00:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x67f08b…
10-18 23:00:05	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9d1a21…
10-18 22:59:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	86	37¢	$32	0x14713b…
10-18 21:36:21	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$51	0x8bcc14…
10-16 19:02:08	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	120	38¢	$46	0xa860c9…
10-16 19:01:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	78	38¢	$30	0xf3ca0a…
10-16 16:28:39	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	148	39¢	$58	0xf0bae0…
10-16 16:20:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0x24472c…
10-16 16:20:27	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0xb8c682…
10-16 16:20:22	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x89f6de…
10-16 00:06:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x1a1f3c…
10-15 14:36:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	SELL	14	68¢	$9	0x5f763e…
10-15 00:23:07	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x8bbd01…
10-15 00:23:05	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xfc250d…
10-15 00:23:05	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x5a855d…
10-15 00:23:02	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xc008f3…
10-15 00:23:01	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x733f34…
10-15 00:00:21	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Up	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xa14b0d…
10-14 23:55:36	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Up	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x94d7c0…
10-14 23:55:22	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Up	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x1d8ed5…
10-14 23:54:40	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0x4d4d7b…
10-14 19:58:37	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	86	16¢	$14	0x82cc46…
10-14 18:18:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	81	16¢	$13	0xa3b3ee…
10-14 18:16:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	525	33¢	$173	0x67991e…
10-14 17:48:39	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	Yes	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x7bb522…
10-14 17:21:48	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x440904…
10-14 17:18:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x94f970…
10-14 17:18:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x45104d…
10-14 17:18:03	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0xc23820…
10-14 12:29:02	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x229a2c…
10-14 12:28:48	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xf6d3ee…
10-14 12:16:40	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xd416d1…
10-14 10:06:02	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	60¢	$40	0x959d13…
10-14 10:05:59	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	60¢	$79	0xe80b26…
10-13 21:46:06	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x2c5bda…
10-13 20:14:04	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0xecc3ac…
10-13 19:38:51	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x0a6d3e…
10-13 15:17:53	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,122	97¢	$1,091	0x05c0f1…
10-13 15:17:40	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	187	97¢	$182	0xea5379…
10-08 17:22:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	71¢	$47	0x10b6cf…
10-08 17:19:30	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	71¢	$55	0x9e74a5…
10-08 01:22:56	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xd87e05…
10-07 20:28:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	73	19¢	$14	0xd1a78a…
10-07 17:06:14	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	41	25¢	$10	0x36b586…
10-06 14:49:03	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0xdd5bd5…
10-06 14:35:06	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	66	37¢	$24	0x696ac4…
10-06 14:14:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	66	37¢	$24	0x9430b6…
10-06 14:09:24	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0x629bef…
10-06 09:10:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	326	24¢	$80	0xc02260…
10-06 08:27:54	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	24¢	$6	0xc03c1e…
10-06 07:28:51	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x60137d…
10-06 07:27:51	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xb75759…
10-06 07:27:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	91	24¢	$22	0x2e4b78…
10-05 18:06:56	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	SELL	84	2¢	$2	0xbb206d…
10-05 12:58:32	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	BUY	500	14¢	$70	0x888fd8…
10-05 00:32:14	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xa0d576…
10-05 00:31:37	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0xfc0530…
10-05 00:28:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	BUY	318	15¢	$48	0xd71873…
10-05 00:26:32	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	BUY	333	37¢	$123	0x3f9978…
10-03 15:46:08	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	SELL	210	13¢	$27	0x381b51…
10-03 08:30:15	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	SELL	231	13¢	$30	0x3dd6f6…
10-03 01:58:02	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	35¢	$18	0x3603fa…
10-02 15:54:23	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	323	28¢	$90	0x197688…
10-02 15:52:30	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	26	28¢	$7	0x7e70b9…
10-02 15:52:18	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0x304f54…