Fluffy-Toast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$65

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

30.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,994

lifetime

Volume

$42.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 08-10 15:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% 0% $-84

Other

39% 50% +$19

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 129 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$1.3K	1,267	707	+560	open	—	01-28 23:28
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$804	1,230	1,230	+0	open	—	04-16 15:55
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	8	$690	560	560	+0	open	—	04-09 15:00
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$689	400	400	+0	open	—	01-31 09:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$657	450	510	-60	open	—	04-24 14:05
starmer out by june 22 2026	7	$616	430	430	+0	open	—	06-22 08:34
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	30	$590	422	422	+0	open	—	07-27 09:25
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	15	$530	395	395	+0	open	—	02-12 13:56
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	23	$503	632	357	+275	open	—	06-18 21:25
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	11	$456	300	928	-628	open	—	06-15 17:07
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	26	$450	506	506	+0	open	—	05-31 19:41
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	3	$434	250	250	+0	open	—	07-31 16:57
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	12	$416	430	430	+0	open	—	07-01 13:40
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	5	$413	420	420	+0	open	—	02-08 11:47
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$403	229	229	+0	open	—	02-08 15:53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	17	$386	500	500	+0	open	—	04-09 19:01
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$384	570	0	+570	open	—	01-14 23:03
us strikes iraq by march 7	11	$383	505	505	+0	open	—	03-05 22:30
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	8	$380	250	250	+0	open	—	03-31 19:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$368	200	200	+0	open	—	06-28 06:19
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	13	$361	300	300	+0	open	—	02-27 21:18
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?	7	$361	540	540	+0	open	—	06-16 08:07
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	10	$354	1,205	603	+603	open	—	04-15 18:30
will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	13	$353	354	354	+0	open	—	02-10 07:15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$346	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 06:45
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	6	$335	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	06-21 18:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	7	$331	220	220	+0	open	—	06-21 08:32
will trump speak to elon musk in june	12	$328	358	358	+0	open	—	06-17 11:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	5	$322	510	510	+0	open	—	07-03 18:26
Prince Andrew released by February 19?	4	$310	232	232	+0	open	—	02-19 19:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 15:53:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	246	18¢	$44	0xa7fa28…
08-10 13:40:03	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	34	18¢	$6	0x6002d1…
08-10 08:51:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	220	5¢	$11	0x4514b6…
08-10 06:09:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	60	87¢	$52	0x21dc5f…
08-09 17:00:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	75	75¢	$56	0x937d5c…
08-07 23:23:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	190	9¢	$17	0x806705…
08-07 19:20:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	194	17¢	$33	0xe8cd6a…
08-07 15:47:19	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x86c851…
08-07 08:45:01	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	194	16¢	$31	0xd08cd7…
08-07 04:50:52	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	No	SELL	113	82¢	$93	0x77c741…
08-07 02:01:24	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x08a00c…
08-07 02:01:21	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0xa719ed…
08-06 23:35:53	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xe93211…
08-06 23:35:50	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8247e9…
08-06 22:22:53	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x16329a…
08-06 22:22:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x9d403e…
08-06 20:50:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	28	34¢	$10	0x053e54…
08-06 20:48:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	72	34¢	$24	0xf90662…
08-06 12:02:15	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	80	24¢	$19	0x15d7ef…
08-06 11:59:29	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	SELL	273	20¢	$56	0xdc79e6…
08-06 08:20:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xeda46a…
08-06 08:20:08	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0x02da03…
08-06 08:18:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0xca2370…
08-06 08:18:02	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0x319045…
08-06 02:34:42	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd312ff…
08-06 02:23:08	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	58	18¢	$10	0x4fa68f…
08-05 14:36:03	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	179	14¢	$25	0xc3d89e…
08-05 14:35:47	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	113	14¢	$16	0xa9ad4b…
08-05 14:05:41	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x72c0aa…
08-05 13:41:24	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x7f3b36…
08-05 12:06:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	47	44¢	$21	0x724a10…
08-05 10:41:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	13	44¢	$6	0xd5219e…
08-05 10:32:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x2146fc…
08-05 06:24:11	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0xa25f0a…
08-05 02:04:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	190	11¢	$21	0x9953fc…
08-04 17:43:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0xf81e0d…
08-04 17:40:59	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xd20c98…
08-04 17:07:32	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	115	67¢	$77	0xad25b7…
08-04 13:35:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	164	33¢	$54	0x89a0ad…
08-04 13:03:12	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x08a2ff…
08-03 20:41:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	48	46¢	$22	0xa42871…
08-03 16:31:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	177	18¢	$32	0xd88f51…
08-03 08:57:11	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	70	64¢	$45	0x347c28…
08-03 06:20:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x473868…
08-02 21:08:51	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	110	54¢	$59	0xa03520…
08-02 15:53:36	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	54	42¢	$23	0xbf33ab…
08-02 13:19:35	will perplexitys valuation hit high 25b by december 31	Yes	SELL	77	22¢	$17	0x655d2f…
08-02 13:19:09	will perplexitys valuation hit high 50b by december 31	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0x29c04c…
08-02 13:18:29	will perplexitys valuation hit high 50b by december 31	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0x8387be…
08-02 08:15:11	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	BUY	120	55¢	$66	0xe974eb…
08-02 02:16:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xd9971c…
08-01 02:57:21	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x29b5e5…
07-31 23:02:42	will perplexitys valuation hit high 25b by december 31	Yes	SELL	24	35¢	$8	0x8d2ec4…
07-31 18:10:26	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0x902e60…
07-31 17:48:21	will perplexitys valuation hit high 25b by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x19528c…
07-31 17:37:59	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xdd5a44…
07-31 16:57:24	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0xa062ab…
07-31 11:20:09	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xb6cbcd…
07-31 11:12:11	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0xadf0f8…
07-31 11:10:54	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	27¢	$28	0x87d4b4…
07-31 11:10:54	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x2c9003…
07-31 09:52:36	will perplexitys valuation hit high 25b by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x084464…
07-31 06:44:09	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	180	15¢	$27	0x4375b8…
07-30 21:16:08	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x6d652b…
07-30 21:15:08	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xb4c4ae…
07-30 17:50:20	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	SELL	68	95¢	$64	0x88aa07…
07-30 12:44:59	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	260	23¢	$60	0xdbf516…
07-30 11:26:41	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x3328b8…
07-30 06:24:59	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xca9b7b…
07-29 23:56:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xf84340…
07-29 21:16:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xf3519e…
07-29 21:12:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	48	58¢	$28	0x05ec81…
07-29 20:27:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0xcd6ea3…
07-29 20:24:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	70	48¢	$34	0x618b7c…
07-29 18:37:44	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xc6efa5…
07-28 06:09:40	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	217	21¢	$46	0xb8f151…
07-28 02:25:04	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xbcbdf1…
07-27 16:27:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	150	42¢	$63	0x9096ad…
07-27 15:34:16	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x53ff2d…
07-27 14:13:06	will us crude oil reserves fall to 325m by may 1 20260714141931930	Yes	BUY	69	11¢	$8	0x7d36f6…
07-27 13:30:43	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xbc5053…
07-27 09:28:45	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x7c4316…
07-27 09:25:42	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	232	98¢	$229	0xfd3ef6…
07-27 09:23:52	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	64	21¢	$13	0xdf7e7f…
07-27 08:34:07	will us crude oil reserves fall to 325m by may 1 20260714141931930	Yes	BUY	61	11¢	$7	0xfa955d…
07-27 04:40:09	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	SELL	245	10¢	$23	0x99555a…
07-26 18:53:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	400	14¢	$56	0x40f880…
07-26 18:39:19	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	SELL	245	9¢	$21	0x83e44a…
07-26 15:39:48	will us crude oil reserves fall to 325m by may 1 20260714141931930	Yes	BUY	190	28¢	$53	0x257667…
07-26 02:24:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	330	17¢	$56	0x911f89…
07-26 02:02:48	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0xa8c02b…
07-26 01:30:37	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0x3482b0…
07-26 01:30:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x53dff0…
07-25 12:39:45	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x3104de…
07-25 12:38:55	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x1e7d79…
07-25 12:38:49	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x776d63…
07-25 12:38:48	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x4b7c7d…
07-25 10:37:18	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x9c71c6…
07-25 08:20:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1b50cc…
07-25 08:19:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x90ca3a…