Fluffy-Toast 0xc327cc…dc31f5 Create alert
bot 8W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$754
Unrealized P&L
+$179
Hit rate
59.3%
Resolved
484
Trades
3,829
lifetime
Volume
$75.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$20
Open exposure
$1.84K
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-14
last 11-10 09:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 181 days
Categories
Other
47% 45% +$1,508
Politics
42% 36% +$233
Tech
8% 32% -$658
Sports
2% 33% -$133
Crypto
1% 25% -$131
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$64
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31? Yes +510 $102 58¢ $298 +$197 11-08 14:33
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026? No +1,143 $171 22¢ $246 +$74 10-18 15:16
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +260 $99 72¢ $186 +$87 10-26 08:18
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +343 $133 40¢ $136 +$2 10-26 11:35
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $23.5B by November 30? Yes +153 $93 68¢ $105 +$12 11-08 15:42
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +114 -$41 91¢ $104 +$145 11-02 09:11
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Yes +130 $64 74¢ $96 +$32 10-26 07:38
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by December 31? No +110 $33 86¢ $94 +$61 11-10 09:34
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? No +92 $35 85¢ $78 +$43 11-08 19:26
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,780 $294 4¢ $74 -$220 11-09 17:41
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +800 $149 8¢ $60 -$89 11-10 01:29
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +477 $146 12¢ $60 -$87 11-08 16:10
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +693 $108 8¢ $55 -$52 11-09 18:06
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? No +220 $53 24¢ $54 +$1 11-07 02:07
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? No +105 $14 46¢ $48 +$34 10-18 01:24
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +48 -$146 62¢ $30 +$176 11-09 11:23
US imports Russian diesel by March 31? Yes +200 $42 14¢ $28 -$14 11-05 10:46
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +268 $23 10¢ $25 +$2 11-05 01:54
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? Yes +236 $37 6¢ $15 -$21 11-09 18:42
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +3,153 $78 0¢ $13 -$65 11-06 02:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,460 $66 1¢ $12 -$54 11-07 16:44
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes +1,293 $8 1¢ $8 +$0 10-11 21:13
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 94¢ $5 +$0 11-08 20:29
Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026? No +265 $40 2¢ $4 -$36 11-04 18:32
Will Faber announce it will resume sales of Sally Rooney's books in the UK by December 31, 2026? Yes +8 $2 43¢ $3 +$1 10-26 20:12
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +2,000 $22 0¢ $3 -$19 10-28 14:04
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the UAE? Yes +76 $1 2¢ $1 +$1 09-30 11:11
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? Yes +2 $0 6¢ $0 $0 11-10 09:07
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +0 $31 8¢ $0 -$31 09-18 02:33