Fluffy-Toast — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$521

Unrealized P&L

+$38

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved (90d)

134

Trades (90d)

1,177

3,728 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$22.6K

$73.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$1.05K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 11-05 10:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Other

46% 45% +$1,376

Politics

43% 37% +$299

Tech

8% 32% -$658

Sports

2% 33% -$133

Crypto

1% 25% -$131

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1,080	$247	17¢	$180	-$68	11-04 21:00
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	+272	$183	62¢	$170	-$13	11-05 01:52
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+260	$99	62¢	$160	+$61	10-26 08:18
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+343	$133	38¢	$129	-$4	10-26 11:35
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+114	-$41	88¢	$100	+$141	11-02 09:11
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	+142	$56	56¢	$79	+$23	10-30 10:34
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+210	$71	33¢	$69	-$2	11-03 14:40
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	+266	$69	24¢	$62	-$7	11-01 17:19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+860	$52	6¢	$47	-$4	11-03 11:58
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1,753	$56	2¢	$34	-$21	10-28 17:27
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Yes	+1,293	$8	1¢	$15	+$7	10-11 21:13
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$29	4¢	$6	-$23	11-02 19:24
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+2,000	$22	0¢	$3	-$19	10-28 14:04
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+0	$31	8¢	$0	-$31	09-18 02:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$1.3K	1,267	707	+560	No	+$90	01-28 23:28
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	184	$1.0K	8,642	8,424	+218	Yes	+$1,091	09-22 18:12
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$804	1,230	1,230	+0	Yes	+$13	04-16 15:55
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	8	$690	560	560	+0	No	+$129	04-09 15:00
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$689	400	400	+0	Yes	+$107	01-31 09:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$657	450	510	-60	No	+$67	04-24 14:05
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	17	$635	425	425	+0	Yes	+$161	10-23 17:00
starmer out by june 22 2026	7	$616	430	430	+0	Yes	+$26	06-22 08:34
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	30	$590	422	422	+0	Yes	+$77	07-27 09:25
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	24	$566	632	462	+170	Yes	-$86	06-18 21:25
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	19	$553	1,300	1,300	-0	Yes	+$87	06-21 18:26
will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	15	$530	395	395	+0	Yes	-$34	02-12 13:56
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	10	$529	620	620	+0	open	—	10-25 22:33
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	17	$518	1,430	1,430	+0	open	—	09-18 02:33
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	32	$518	928	928	+0	Yes	+$352	06-15 17:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$514	400	400	+0	No	+$14	06-28 06:19
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	19	$496	660	660	+0	Yes	+$376	07-22 17:44
situational awareness raises new capital by october 31	11	$475	340	340	+0	No	+$148	10-01 05:13
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	8	$474	337	337	+0	No	+$110	08-31 11:41
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	14	$453	550	550	+0	No	+$327	09-04 14:36
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	26	$450	506	506	+0	No	+$177	05-31 19:41
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	3	$434	250	250	+0	No	+$62	07-31 16:57
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	12	$416	430	430	+0	Yes	+$51	07-01 13:40
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	5	$413	420	420	+0	No	-$203	02-08 11:47
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	11	$409	570	570	+0	No	-$109	07-25 19:50
iran oman hormuz agreement by september 30 823 929	10	$407	330	330	+0	No	+$141	09-18 11:34
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	16	$403	404	404	+0	Yes	+$141	06-13 17:01
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$403	229	229	+0	Yes	+$54	02-08 15:53
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	11	$401	408	408	+0	No	+$95	08-16 20:11
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	30	$400	320	320	+0	No	+$108	06-29 18:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 10:46:09	US imports Russian diesel by March 31?	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0xcaa6f0…
11-05 10:46:07	US imports Russian diesel by March 31?	Yes	BUY	177	21¢	$37	0xbeb7cc…
11-05 01:54:00	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x435567…
11-05 01:52:24	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	24	61¢	$15	0xb75f59…
11-04 22:49:57	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	70	47¢	$33	0xb7efc5…
11-04 21:00:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x9f485d…
11-04 21:00:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x61c3f6…
11-04 21:00:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x19c769…
11-04 20:35:06	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	42	17¢	$7	0x93db9f…
11-04 18:32:28	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	65	11¢	$7	0x356883…
11-04 14:27:49	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xcab7a8…
11-04 13:49:13	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xff8c03…
11-04 13:24:09	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0xb20d9a…
11-04 13:15:52	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x7fdf63…
11-04 04:47:49	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	27¢	$23	0x42efa3…
11-04 04:47:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0x4935d0…
11-04 03:27:51	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x76fcbe…
11-04 03:23:09	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x3788fd…
11-04 00:15:04	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	53¢	$132	0xba6562…
11-04 00:13:46	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0xc5e864…
11-03 15:07:57	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xafc9a1…
11-03 14:40:07	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	163	34¢	$55	0xdf2f18…
11-03 14:15:57	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	40	34¢	$14	0x8e6160…
11-03 14:04:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	14¢	$11	0xbfd608…
11-03 13:57:33	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x83c384…
11-03 13:27:00	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x50511f…
11-03 13:07:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x5c312a…
11-03 12:17:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0xc7afae…
11-03 11:58:52	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	220	6¢	$13	0x8ea6ad…
11-03 11:25:42	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xc60097…
11-03 11:25:40	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x7b4121…
11-03 09:40:13	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x4d76e1…
11-03 09:40:10	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	7¢	$4	0x2f2e70…
11-03 09:07:52	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	150	15¢	$22	0x6bdec2…
11-03 09:01:40	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x3b3b99…
11-03 09:01:39	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xe08730…
11-03 09:01:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xa97568…
11-03 01:11:03	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	180	17¢	$31	0x39be4b…
11-02 19:24:13	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	226	5¢	$11	0xbd1426…
11-02 13:35:15	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x17490a…
11-02 09:11:01	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	114	87¢	$99	0xdf4165…
11-01 18:20:34	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x9c94b6…
11-01 17:19:57	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	154	17¢	$26	0x90be5f…
11-01 14:35:03	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0x25bb03…
11-01 13:36:48	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	8¢	$7	0x35ecf2…
11-01 10:58:34	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x1e3c24…
11-01 10:58:27	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xd95c8b…
11-01 10:58:27	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x4e7eea…
11-01 10:58:27	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x4bf176…
10-31 20:50:49	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x5c85d0…
10-31 19:46:45	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	99	40¢	$40	0x2cf302…
10-31 19:19:09	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	160	56¢	$90	0xa92f79…
10-31 19:16:18	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0xf365f2…
10-31 15:24:40	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0xbdfbb7…
10-31 11:24:27	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	No	SELL	134	95¢	$128	0xaf9af3…
10-30 10:34:49	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	12	60¢	$7	0xef13f1…
10-30 10:26:07	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x543d7a…
10-30 10:24:54	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x16c747…
10-30 10:23:55	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x3ca2eb…
10-29 12:15:19	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x3da2e1…
10-29 11:27:40	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xdd9ce7…
10-29 11:02:56	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xbdb0d6…
10-29 11:02:05	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20B by October 31?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x40a0dd…
10-29 11:00:58	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x517b5c…
10-29 11:00:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	170	45¢	$76	0x991dce…
10-29 10:51:23	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xd1dec4…
10-29 10:50:40	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x22c95c…
10-29 03:53:14	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	66	60¢	$40	0x8b6d10…
10-29 00:40:01	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	66¢	$15	0xd60c63…
10-29 00:40:01	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	66¢	$6	0xaa3e6e…
10-29 00:31:25	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x424c02…
10-29 00:31:01	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x3f4dd1…
10-29 00:30:13	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xec276d…
10-28 17:27:11	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0x6abf20…
10-28 16:05:29	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x502450…
10-28 16:05:29	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	84	2¢	$2	0x179fc0…
10-28 16:05:28	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$2	0x7feeb2…
10-28 15:48:40	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	72	2¢	$2	0x1cfc4f…
10-28 14:04:13	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	0¢	$1	0xe55d3c…
10-28 14:04:13	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	0¢	$0	0x85c5e4…
10-28 14:04:13	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x73c5f2…
10-28 14:04:13	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x00bea1…
10-28 12:42:56	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$1	0x7f3a1e…
10-28 12:24:55	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x57fb0f…
10-28 12:01:04	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	111	24¢	$27	0x6891f4…
10-28 11:37:38	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xceaca1…
10-28 11:00:44	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	82	24¢	$20	0x6a7f61…
10-28 10:46:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0xe685b5…
10-28 10:46:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	24	24¢	$6	0x1f8bc3…
10-28 10:46:07	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x929450…
10-28 09:45:23	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x7e8835…
10-28 08:34:58	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xa66a0f…
10-28 07:03:41	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	533	0¢	$2	0xbe8c75…
10-28 03:41:42	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe53868…
10-28 03:28:31	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x124c41…
10-28 01:57:41	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa45051…
10-28 00:55:06	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x1d70fe…
10-28 00:39:36	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	77	85¢	$66	0x04863f…
10-27 21:28:29	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	85¢	$13	0xf89e30…
10-27 21:18:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	170	39¢	$66	0x860f97…