Chilly-Keystone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.3%

Resolved

213

Trades

521

lifetime

Volume

$518

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-01 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Other

43% 2% -$2

Politics

29% 10% -$1

Crypto

21% 27% $0

Tech

5% 9% $0

Sports

2% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-01).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	10	$12	6	6	+0	Yes	$0	02-05 08:39
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	7	$7	3	4	-1	Yes	$0	01-14 03:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	04-14 03:15
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	01-26 10:12
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-18 06:09
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	06-02 03:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-13 06:59
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:28
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-03 06:07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	02-12 06:58
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-26 04:20
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-06 07:59
bitcoin above 72k on april 21	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-21 03:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-22 06:46
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:13
will ethereum reach 2000 in june 2026 from june 2	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-24 07:57
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-28 07:02
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-16 07:03
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	01-07 09:36
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-31 07:35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	04-11 08:03
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	02-20 07:28
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-04 03:33
Will Keysight's Q2 orders be above $1.65B?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-13 07:00
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-31 06:26
bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-05 06:08
bitcoin above 64k on june 8 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	06-08 02:38
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	03-28 06:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-29 06:11
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	07-25 07:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 09:28:20	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xa431db…
08-01 09:18:48	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xff9185…
07-31 07:35:23	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xaafc4e…
07-31 07:28:18	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x7e8604…
07-31 07:17:45	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd94f5d…
07-31 07:11:23	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x211556…
07-30 08:37:11	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x671c99…
07-30 08:23:24	will xagusd dip to 54 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x92e062…
07-30 08:18:18	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa4e37f…
07-30 08:13:44	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5a1459…
07-29 08:19:48	Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xba0e07…
07-29 08:17:02	Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x622042…
07-29 08:13:21	Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x57027a…
07-29 08:00:42	Will Carlos Alcaraz Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7e2f82…
07-28 10:18:40	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9c707b…
07-28 10:06:31	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5a59fa…
07-28 07:47:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x508092…
07-28 07:40:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 29 20260708212322954	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xac3b4f…
07-27 06:50:58	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7cb7fd…
07-27 06:44:24	Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb15272…
07-27 06:40:28	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x551bf9…
07-27 06:34:30	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9c4d39…
07-25 07:57:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1fa500…
07-25 07:51:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3687a2…
07-25 07:47:42	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x901ad8…
07-25 07:42:15	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe91ed4…
07-24 07:51:27	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa7b51b…
07-24 07:46:42	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x08e603…
07-24 07:41:06	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbef0b7…
07-24 07:27:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xef17dc…
07-23 07:48:21	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x37c107…
07-23 07:41:34	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4a9c87…
07-23 07:36:36	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x0a5f40…
07-23 07:29:03	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xc6b121…
07-22 07:28:28	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x71beca…
07-22 07:19:49	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2d86b1…
07-22 07:13:21	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xef2f23…
07-22 07:00:00	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb97fd8…
07-21 06:54:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe5a0f2…
07-21 06:49:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x043720…
07-21 06:45:01	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x66a84c…
07-21 06:36:09	Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xa6ed91…
07-20 07:51:34	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x26326f…
07-20 07:41:04	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xce54a0…
07-20 07:35:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x642ff1…
07-20 07:30:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc7e918…
07-18 07:37:46	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xaf874b…
07-18 07:25:21	will russia enter mykhailivka by july 31	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1f57b5…
07-18 07:20:46	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x68c9e3…
07-18 07:14:19	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x109c8c…
07-17 07:03:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd7b298…
07-17 06:57:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x341d60…
07-17 06:52:33	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x005732…
07-17 06:43:21	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x645bd0…
07-16 08:11:41	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x0bdcc5…
07-16 07:38:16	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x013769…
07-16 07:32:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0aef82…
07-16 07:24:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcf1c0f…
07-15 08:01:58	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4aa45d…
07-15 07:51:32	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2e156a…
07-15 07:46:52	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x265799…
07-15 07:39:07	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x4ed829…
07-14 07:37:28	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x16b454…
07-14 07:28:20	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcbd1e0…
07-14 07:16:44	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xad30cf…
07-14 07:04:28	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xbd66b0…
07-13 07:43:50	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xc188b3…
07-13 07:40:22	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc678a3…
07-13 07:28:58	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x3b5769…
07-13 07:19:41	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x28b0ef…
07-11 07:53:26	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x28e89d…
07-11 07:46:44	will nvda reach 256 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x70cb99…
07-11 07:38:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4eee0b…
07-11 07:34:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa92569…
07-10 08:02:17	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x2ed983…
07-10 07:51:11	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd34198…
07-10 07:45:37	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xfd7808…
07-10 07:37:22	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdb0946…
07-09 07:06:10	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5ccef4…
07-09 06:54:41	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1427a5…
07-09 06:49:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2c2c6e…
07-09 06:43:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc0ebfc…
07-08 07:20:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe4af2b…
07-08 07:10:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x857991…
07-08 07:07:05	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1fd616…
07-08 06:58:28	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe61507…
07-07 07:41:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x04ec28…
07-07 07:33:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb5554f…
07-07 07:30:26	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x7145c7…
07-07 07:21:35	will trump praise mark rutte by july 31 20260626214328039	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x17b861…
07-06 07:59:26	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x752e92…
07-06 07:48:46	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x128745…
07-06 07:47:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x39c8a7…
07-06 07:41:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x07c769…
07-04 07:03:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x9a4cf1…
07-04 06:56:04	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x52e427…
07-04 06:53:38	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x675df0…
07-04 06:49:10	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x41a058…
07-03 08:45:41	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x3567bc…
07-03 08:41:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbdcf0a…