Modest-Meantime — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.17K

Unrealized P&L

+$73

Hit rate

52.3%

Resolved

Trades

14,354

lifetime

Volume

$190.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$1.84K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-10 00:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Sports

43% 20% +$1,170

Other

31% 50% +$6

Politics

19% — —

Crypto

7% 0% $-2

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 290 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	+1,000	$910	94¢	$935	+$25	06-04 18:06
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	+1,000	$860	90¢	$905	+$45	06-06 03:27
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	+0	$-3	62¢	$0	+$3	06-07 21:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 total 3pt5	88	$11.9K	10,000	9,985	+15	open	—	04-15 05:21
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	99	$11.6K	15,178	15,762	-584	open	—	01-27 17:47
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	90	$10.9K	20,958	22,588	-1,629	open	—	03-24 12:34
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$10.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	01-04 08:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	172	$9.6K	59,640	53,643	+5,997	open	—	03-29 18:48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	34	$7.7K	6,225	6,211	+14	open	—	03-31 12:57
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	76	$7.0K	10,056	11,056	-1,000	open	—	03-26 17:47
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	962	$4.9K	69,086	66,081	+3,005	No	+$1,228	03-18 16:23
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	21	$4.3K	5,223	3,700	+1,523	open	—	03-10 13:57
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	215	$4.0K	140,890	145,120	-4,230	open	—	02-27 11:14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	21	$3.7K	2,716	5,223	-2,507	open	—	03-11 06:10
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	8	$3.7K	2,680	2,680	+0	open	—	02-22 00:42
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	15	$3.5K	25,125	25,125	+0	open	—	03-18 16:36
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1,776	$3.3K	93,029	90,778	+2,251	open	—	03-12 01:15
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1,642	$3.3K	63,323	67,472	-4,150	open	—	03-12 01:18
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	64	$3.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	$-50	02-27 11:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$3.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-18 11:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	25	$3.0K	10,020	8,020	+2,000	open	—	03-25 17:31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	22	$2.7K	4,565	2,257	+2,308	open	—	03-07 07:37
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	471	$2.7K	24,991	24,736	+255	open	—	01-30 18:03
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	33	$2.4K	9,409	9,890	-481	open	—	01-16 14:28
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	4	$2.4K	3,566	0	+3,566	open	—	02-07 17:43
will the denver broncos win super bowl 2026	90	$2.1K	10,570	11,090	-520	open	—	01-21 16:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	4	$2.1K	1,374	1,374	+0	open	—	03-31 12:39
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-23 16:01
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	15	$1.8K	1,224	1,224	+0	open	—	03-26 18:14
si settle 77 5 80 jan 2026	16	$1.8K	5,041	5,041	+0	open	—	01-30 18:24
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$1.7K	1,500	2,000	-500	open	—	03-20 05:35
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	54	$1.7K	4,097	4,089	+8	open	—	01-17 06:16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	24	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-31 13:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 02:13:28	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x81fdd5…
06-10 01:45:03	will uruguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149738	Yes	SELL	46	9¢	$4	0x025bdb…
06-10 01:27:00	will uruguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149738	Yes	SELL	53	9¢	$5	0xb326ef…
06-10 00:01:36	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x37fd46…
06-09 23:12:36	will austria reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120772	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$1	0x9c5a02…
06-09 21:11:39	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xc06913…
06-09 20:16:42	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	SELL	61	19¢	$12	0xb58c06…
06-09 20:14:15	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	Yes	BUY	200	32¢	$64	0xcf390b…
06-09 19:15:03	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x5462bb…
06-09 15:32:43	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0x109a28…
06-09 15:04:40	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	BUY	393	94¢	$370	0xdb3131…
06-09 09:31:15	will uruguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149738	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x5aab5a…
06-09 08:56:00	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x7e3273…
06-09 08:55:34	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0xbf71c8…
06-09 08:31:04	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd91188…
06-09 08:23:33	will ivory coast reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149727	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x17359f…
06-09 08:12:07	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	67	92¢	$62	0xf51362…
06-09 08:10:10	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8d65be…
06-09 06:59:12	will uruguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149738	Yes	BUY	48	7¢	$3	0x219039…
06-09 04:06:51	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x3f332f…
06-09 03:07:04	will uruguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149738	Yes	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0xeb4afe…
06-09 01:18:31	will uruguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149738	Yes	BUY	61	7¢	$4	0xbb5931…
06-08 16:54:55	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x2c1515…
06-08 16:54:27	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xc28d89…
06-08 16:53:49	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x64e31b…
06-08 16:53:19	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x5e4c00…
06-08 16:52:49	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x346d1e…
06-08 16:52:12	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa337ba…
06-08 14:20:18	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x9f0c7c…
06-08 12:17:54	will austria reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120772	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x50fff3…
06-07 21:40:07	will austria reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120772	Yes	SELL	23	30¢	$7	0xd7668e…
06-07 21:08:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	62	63¢	$39	0x0cdd2e…
06-07 21:04:30	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	79	63¢	$50	0x3d37a4…
06-07 20:17:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	79	63¢	$50	0x004e61…
06-07 18:37:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	121	63¢	$76	0xdbaf25…
06-07 17:00:04	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	263	62¢	$163	0x2b7765…
06-07 16:51:24	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	SELL	34	23¢	$8	0x130dfe…
06-07 16:48:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x6a1bae…
06-07 15:55:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	66	62¢	$41	0x862ab1…
06-07 15:15:07	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xea963e…
06-07 10:28:25	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x81ac6c…
06-07 04:32:00	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	49	3¢	$1	0x876fb6…
06-07 03:58:52	will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	Yes	SELL	54	8¢	$4	0x345f0b…
06-07 03:15:48	will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x1e62e7…
06-07 02:57:30	will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0xd2fb51…
06-07 01:59:46	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x3239b5…
06-07 01:54:13	will croatia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149754	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x8c0a62…
06-07 00:25:30	will croatia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149754	Yes	BUY	48	5¢	$2	0xcb572d…
06-06 18:39:33	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	68	3¢	$2	0x247323…
06-06 17:06:28	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x2d0ac2…
06-06 14:06:46	will ghana reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120782	Yes	BUY	71	18¢	$13	0x343b29…
06-06 07:28:28	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	Yes	BUY	85	32¢	$27	0x8795f0…
06-06 07:22:27	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0xd194d3…
06-06 03:27:45	Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0xbdcbb1…
06-06 00:28:09	will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	Yes	BUY	54	7¢	$4	0x858b88…
06-05 23:41:31	will senegal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149742	No	BUY	47	92¢	$43	0xff4b50…
06-05 22:35:31	will austria reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120772	Yes	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x23c223…
06-05 21:10:34	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	49	3¢	$1	0xbf837f…
06-05 18:06:12	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x3bb003…
06-05 11:14:13	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xc9746f…
06-04 20:59:42	will turkiye reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120750	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x709d9c…
06-04 18:06:10	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x024663…
06-04 07:00:09	will morocco reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120744	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0xddd3e5…
06-04 05:08:22	will austria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149746	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x5f032c…
06-04 01:34:51	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0x323e36…
06-03 23:00:22	will colombia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120776	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0xea753e…
05-27 21:54:26	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	91	34¢	$31	0xa397de…
05-27 21:36:14	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x8f095c…
05-27 21:36:13	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xaf5f49…
05-27 21:36:06	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x3294cd…
05-23 19:43:42	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xf50c3a…
05-23 19:43:40	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xcd555c…
05-23 19:43:40	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	69	34¢	$23	0xc027e6…
05-23 19:42:14	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	75	35¢	$26	0x2d3785…
05-23 19:42:09	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x9b2895…
05-23 19:18:56	Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xcb2050…
05-16 11:47:59	Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa0ba7c…
05-16 11:15:58	Geneva Open, Qualification: Daniel Galan vs Nishesh Basavareddy	Daniel Galan	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0050c5…
05-14 20:15:55	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x5c00b1…
05-14 20:15:48	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb625aa…
05-11 19:00:02	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x6a3eef…
05-07 00:59:48	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4ac6d4…
05-06 14:49:27	Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x962ce3…
05-06 14:20:18	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0xd37ba4…
05-06 14:17:22	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x4bc6dd…
05-06 14:12:00	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0x7d7bac…
05-06 13:42:50	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0xbd5295…
05-06 03:21:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	No	BUY	32	55¢	$18	0x42a2d1…
05-06 01:58:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	No	BUY	52	55¢	$29	0xec0ef1…
05-06 01:16:22	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	No	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x1638bc…
05-05 17:31:54	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x6fb435…
04-28 06:42:36	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 30?	No	SELL	700	19¢	$133	0xd5e2c0…
04-27 23:33:40	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 29?	No	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xdf9304…
04-27 23:33:38	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 29?	No	BUY	980	6¢	$59	0xd42a1a…
04-27 22:20:38	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x5e6070…
04-27 22:15:48	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	128	72¢	$92	0xcbb075…
04-27 21:46:48	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 28?	No	BUY	1,567	2¢	$31	0x6ecc59…
04-27 21:10:20	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 28?	No	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x61ed74…
04-27 19:10:18	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 29?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x487df5…
04-27 17:34:08	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 28?	No	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x4097b7…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	309	$116.5K	56,525	04-17 18:53
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	303	$1.52M	32,191	06-10 02:32
oVyg7f 0x5f39…a78c	273	$117.1K	5,367	04-12 20:37
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	269	$45.1K	15,417	06-10 00:24
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	239	$269.8K	23,417	03-31 14:53
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	236	$191.9K	2,939	06-08 20:17
Well-Documented-Hit 0x30ce…6b2b	234	$1.37M	83,725	04-16 17:35
Real-Veteran 0xe8dd…ec86	232	$9.44M	129,385	04-28 10:52