Perfect-Shed — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$52

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$44

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 06-04 04:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Other

28% 100% +$52

Crypto

21% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-54	$-36	76¢	$-40	$-5	06-04 04:55
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes		+188	$15	2¢	$4	$-11	05-31 19:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	3	$350	253	253	+0	Yes	+$50	04-12 18:54
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	4	$198	160	160	+0	open	—	04-23 20:18
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$171	127	127	+0	open	—	04-15 18:23
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$164	390	94	+297	open	—	04-13 19:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$118	114	114	+0	open	—	04-15 18:23
will bitcoin dip to 68k march 16 22	3	$113	175	43	+131	open	—	03-22 17:42
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	2	$104	64	63	+1	open	—	04-23 20:18
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$101	81	81	+0	open	—	04-22 10:34
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$101	54	53	+0	open	—	04-13 17:43
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$80	52	52	+0	open	—	04-22 10:34
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$75	77	77	+0	Yes	+$3	04-22 10:35
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	2	$70	136	0	+136	open	—	04-12 18:59
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$63	115	115	+0	open	—	04-13 17:43
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	2	$61	109	109	+0	open	—	05-17 17:46
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$51	40	40	+0	open	—	04-29 05:09
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$51	35	35	+0	open	—	03-22 22:32
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$51	33	33	+0	open	—	04-15 18:29
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$50	42	42	+0	open	—	04-19 16:31
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$49	40	40	+0	open	—	04-28 05:11
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$48	33	33	+0	open	—	03-12 20:08
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$43	903	625	+278	open	—	03-09 20:50
will the us invade iran by march 31	4	$41	24	24	+0	open	—	03-15 20:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$41	25	25	+0	open	—	04-22 10:35
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$40	37	37	+0	open	—	04-16 06:04
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$40	796	0	+796	open	—	04-26 19:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$38	50	50	+0	open	—	05-06 18:23
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	2	$37	23	23	+0	open	—	04-13 17:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$36	0	54	-54	open	—	06-04 04:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$31	61	61	+0	open	—	04-15 18:23
btc updown 5m 1773171000	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	03-10 19:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 04:55:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	67¢	$36	0xab0f20…
05-31 19:11:03	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	BUY	188	8¢	$15	0x4ad19c…
05-17 17:46:35	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	109	33¢	$36	0x0a7f11…
05-06 18:23:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0xe55c2d…
05-05 10:17:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0xdbf5aa…
05-03 19:18:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x81e1dc…
04-29 05:09:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	40	65¢	$26	0xa819d5…
04-28 05:11:22	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$39	0xc89919…
04-26 19:46:18	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x696853…
04-26 19:44:38	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x83fbd9…
04-26 19:40:36	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	484	5¢	$25	0x5c069b…
04-24 14:48:34	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	313	5¢	$15	0x3db045…
04-23 20:18:24	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	79	63¢	$50	0xc8137f…
04-23 20:18:06	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	No	SELL	63	86¢	$54	0xc7dc20…
04-22 10:35:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0xaec159…
04-22 10:35:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	77	50¢	$39	0x0ffe52…
04-22 10:34:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	52	87¢	$45	0xa6e2ed…
04-22 10:34:42	Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	81	63¢	$51	0x33d02d…
04-19 18:25:14	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x679dd0…
04-19 18:23:46	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	77	47¢	$36	0x44b701…
04-19 18:23:08	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xde4f61…
04-19 18:22:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0xbb8be0…
04-19 18:20:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x377c7f…
04-19 18:19:50	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x54a203…
04-19 16:31:26	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	42	60¢	$25	0x707a72…
04-19 16:31:14	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	81	60¢	$49	0x189e9e…
04-16 06:04:50	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	SELL	37	55¢	$20	0x77fa52…
04-15 18:30:32	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x67c80a…
04-15 18:29:32	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	77¢	$26	0x36ee8a…
04-15 18:29:10	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x409de2…
04-15 18:23:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	SELL	61	35¢	$21	0x4582ae…
04-15 18:23:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	60¢	$68	0x51b1d7…
04-15 18:23:10	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	80¢	$101	0x803459…
04-13 19:16:05	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x512c87…
04-13 19:15:21	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x61aac1…
04-13 19:14:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0xce3309…
04-13 19:11:49	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x8b1713…
04-13 19:11:15	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	53¢	$40	0x8c9720…
04-13 19:10:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	297	34¢	$100	0x4d05ef…
04-13 19:04:57	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xcfb9b2…
04-13 17:43:55	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0x0cc3b0…
04-13 17:43:41	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	29¢	$33	0xe88173…
04-13 17:43:11	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	SELL	53	95¢	$51	0x17489c…
04-12 19:00:37	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x8e90ee…
04-12 18:59:05	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0x34132c…
04-12 18:56:39	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	No	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x845e64…
04-12 18:54:23	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	SELL	253	79¢	$200	0x1c3b70…
04-12 07:29:03	will bitcoin reach 74k april 6 12	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x21ea30…
04-12 07:27:41	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x101f72…
04-12 07:26:59	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0x01ceae…
04-11 18:53:19	bitcoin above 74k on april 12	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x875156…
04-11 18:51:39	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x16df9d…
04-11 18:49:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0x7f7d05…
04-11 18:48:23	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xbc7886…
04-11 18:48:11	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0xec1d89…
04-09 20:15:41	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	84	60¢	$50	0x2b59ff…
04-09 20:14:25	Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x7b6379…
04-09 20:11:39	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0xcfa354…
04-09 14:29:51	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	19	68¢	$13	0x69e01e…
03-30 20:52:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x56070d…
03-23 20:43:47	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x409aa3…
03-23 20:42:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x5b501e…
03-23 20:42:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x48e297…
03-23 20:40:19	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 320 339	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0x21ca44…
03-22 22:32:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	SELL	35	74¢	$26	0x0c8ca3…
03-22 17:48:59	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xc39fdd…
03-22 17:42:37	will bitcoin dip to 68k march 16 22	Yes	SELL	43	53¢	$23	0x5fb2ec…
03-22 17:41:23	will bitcoin dip to 68k march 16 22	No	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0x4d34a5…
03-22 17:40:45	will bitcoin dip to 68k march 16 22	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xeb93e2…
03-15 20:26:57	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0xd25780…
03-15 20:26:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	94	36¢	$34	0xdb8e61…
03-14 20:07:49	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xb40391…
03-14 20:07:29	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0xd6d922…
03-14 20:06:51	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x58498b…
03-14 20:04:43	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xc8929f…
03-12 20:08:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	33	85¢	$28	0xff1c3a…
03-10 19:40:19	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb3dbae…
03-10 19:32:19	btc updown 5m 1773171000	Down	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x9f58e7…
03-10 19:30:35	btc updown 5m 1773171000	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x35ae26…
03-10 19:15:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x46317a…
03-10 19:14:53	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xf193b3…
03-10 19:09:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xad4c67…
03-10 18:03:43	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	16	66¢	$10	0xb69aca…
03-09 20:56:05	nothing ever happens microstrategy	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x9fd36a…
03-09 20:52:15	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xc77776…
03-09 20:50:43	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	278	4¢	$10	0x049032…
03-09 20:49:17	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x0089b6…
03-09 20:19:55	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	SELL	625	3¢	$18	0xde8e82…
03-09 14:24:21	will partido popular pp win the 2026 castilla y len regional election 258	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xb48db2…
03-09 09:18:49	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xb30e8e…
03-09 09:11:13	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x4e7e4f…
03-09 09:10:35	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x91ec62…
03-09 09:09:17	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	625	2¢	$15	0x36178e…
03-09 09:03:05	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x370493…