Verifiable-Estuary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.20K

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,020

lifetime

Volume

$34.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$235

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-08 12:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 46% $-1,203

Politics

26% — —

Other

20% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 488 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No		+500	$165	30¢	$152	$-12	06-05 10:28
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No		+500	$65	16¢	$82	+$18	06-08 12:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	117	$3.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Up	+$960	05-06 13:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$1.3K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	05-26 11:19
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-08 06:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	04-18 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	52	$950	1,300	0	+1,300	open	—	05-04 19:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	5	$942	1,029	0	+1,029	open	—	06-03 15:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$880	500	500	+0	open	—	05-06 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	73	$867	1,700	0	+1,700	Down	$-867	05-06 13:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	10	$816	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-08 07:46
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	3	$800	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-05 10:43
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	2	$796	500	500	+0	open	—	01-10 13:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	58	$784	1,600	0	+1,600	Down	$-784	05-06 13:20
lol vit mkoi 2026 04 06	3	$660	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-06 18:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	30	$659	430	444	-14	Up	+$206	05-06 12:19
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	7	$647	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-06 13:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$644	700	200	+500	open	—	05-27 09:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	17	$569	339	400	-61	Up	+$162	05-06 12:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$478	500	0	+500	open	—	01-09 06:44
will ethereum reach 4200 in january 2026	4	$472	500	0	+500	open	—	01-06 14:12
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	2	$454	500	0	+500	open	—	01-09 06:51
will ethereum reach 4000 in january 2026	1	$440	500	0	+500	open	—	01-06 11:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$433	500	0	+500	open	—	04-07 10:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$430	500	0	+500	open	—	01-09 06:44
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	15	$410	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-13 12:54
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$409	500	0	+500	open	—	03-08 21:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	25	$408	800	0	+800	Down	$-408	05-06 13:16
lol vit shft 2026 04 12	1	$405	500	0	+500	open	—	04-12 14:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$402	250	250	+0	open	—	01-09 15:13
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$380	500	0	+500	open	—	03-25 19:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$370	500	0	+500	open	—	05-08 07:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 12:18:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	500	13¢	$65	0xd138e1…
06-05 10:43:19	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	893	80¢	$715	0x3e0d07…
06-05 10:28:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0xb61fa6…
06-05 10:15:12	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	101	80¢	$81	0xf54413…
06-05 10:12:30	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x625355…
06-03 15:16:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	920	92¢	$843	0xee46ea…
06-03 15:16:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x0d918b…
06-03 15:15:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0xacfe99…
06-03 15:12:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xb4ec3c…
06-03 15:12:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$8	0xb6d876…
05-27 09:30:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	79¢	$198	0xf1612f…
05-26 11:19:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1,400	93¢	$1,302	0x63b695…
05-13 16:29:18	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x939ef9…
05-13 16:29:08	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	85	72¢	$61	0x09cc5e…
05-13 16:27:47	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x949dad…
05-08 07:48:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0x4828e5…
05-08 07:46:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	506	81¢	$409	0xaef215…
05-08 07:45:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	244	81¢	$197	0xaf4168…
05-07 06:23:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	48	84¢	$40	0xb282c4…
05-07 06:23:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf095e7…
05-07 06:22:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf09c24…
05-07 06:21:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x114fc7…
05-07 06:20:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x10f6ed…
05-07 06:19:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x6059d7…
05-07 06:18:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	72¢	$180	0x76ed3a…
05-07 06:18:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	47	84¢	$40	0x361423…
05-07 06:18:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	130	84¢	$109	0x65b86a…
05-06 13:53:44	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	132	69¢	$91	0xba8701…
05-06 13:52:00	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x9496fb…
05-06 13:50:52	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	290	69¢	$200	0x066290…
05-06 13:50:24	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	312	69¢	$215	0xa38440…
05-06 13:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	21	70¢	$15	0x5ba06d…
05-06 13:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0xfca812…
05-06 13:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xc8dd1d…
05-06 13:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x92ea16…
05-06 13:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x256fe6…
05-06 13:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	154	70¢	$108	0xf3ce7d…
05-06 13:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xa00f34…
05-06 13:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	179	50¢	$90	0x7a62eb…
05-06 13:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x6699c7…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe4f00f…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd8c559…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd3fa0f…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbcc49a…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xba100e…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xae0474…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	134	99¢	$133	0xa1e339…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x872e7d…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x789514…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x47e3f3…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x43bbe3…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x3aff3d…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	545	99¢	$540	0x35f1c3…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x359693…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1,100	99¢	$1,089	0x2aa780…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x26ae6d…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x20d459…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x0cbd38…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0c20bf…
05-06 13:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x06984d…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xff4cac…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfcad4b…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf6bbf2…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xf31616…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xefd658…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xed6228…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xec0eff…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xe97675…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe7058a…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe0e3c3…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xdf9856…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xdeaf7e…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xda571c…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0xda400e…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd728d2…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0xd6139b…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xd5f5de…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd20657…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xd0f6f3…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	51	51¢	$26	0xd099a5…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xcf71d6…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xced7a8…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcec6cb…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xcb65ff…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	80	51¢	$41	0xc898a0…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0xc6f41a…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xc64e20…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xc58ef0…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	80	51¢	$41	0xc4afdb…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	78	51¢	$40	0xc09fa3…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xbc4917…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	80	51¢	$41	0xb609b3…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0xb4d8c0…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xac4842…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0xab948b…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xaa517e…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa7b334…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xa2454a…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9fb1a8…
05-06 13:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x959a3c…