Sinful-Bail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$31

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-02 19:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

70% 100% +$0

Politics

30% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4	$2	46¢	$2	+$0	05-30 08:52
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+1	$1	82¢	$1	+$0	05-30 18:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+1	$1	86¢	$1	+$0	05-30 08:50
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+1	$1	73¢	$1	+$0	05-30 08:40
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+3	$1	26¢	$1	$-0	05-30 10:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	+42	$1	1¢	$1	$-0	05-31 23:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 19:26:31	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe00e40…
06-01 13:56:41	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4c2912…
06-01 13:56:34	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xdb0683…
05-31 23:34:56	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x4ac668…
05-30 18:11:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xb83b2f…
05-30 18:06:26	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xf91a3a…
05-30 10:03:40	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xce0869…
05-30 08:52:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xd9bb85…
05-30 08:50:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x287657…
05-30 08:42:30	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7d0458…
05-30 08:40:19	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6456f1…
05-12 12:37:44	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xb3ff2a…
04-22 21:14:40	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6689d6…
04-22 21:12:58	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa5f36f…
04-22 21:05:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0b4a31…
04-22 21:05:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x59d7a4…
04-21 19:58:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x685649…
04-21 19:23:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x3fcd65…
04-21 19:20:36	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xc2e71d…
03-26 14:33:17	uef cze ire 2026 03 26 ire	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x630acb…
03-26 14:32:59	Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x6993fa…
03-25 13:18:17	uef cze ire 2026 03 26 ire	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x4d4baf…
03-24 21:25:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x0a62ce…
03-20 15:37:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$1	0xe3d2a4…
03-18 19:31:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xc28d8c…
03-17 10:02:15	Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x10f5b3…
03-14 16:41:51	rusixnat fra eng 2026 03 14 eng	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe7e4f6…
03-13 21:50:27	will russia capture hryshyne by march 15 2026 338	No	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0x68e02c…
03-13 00:31:39	will russia capture hryshyne by march 15 2026 338	No	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x111fd4…
03-13 00:13:47	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf13dfb…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	19	$279.3K	4,126	06-10 02:06
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	18	$78.5K	5,626	06-10 00:44
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	17	$31.3K	356	06-08 20:14
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	16	$2.91M	4,986	06-10 03:50
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	16	$5.62K	519	05-31 21:47
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	15	$53.3K	4,802	06-01 04:27
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	14	$65.2K	6,396	06-10 02:06
Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae	14	$53.4K	14,411	06-10 03:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia capture hryshyne by march 15 2026 338	2	$3	67	67	+0	open	—	03-13 21:50
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-12 12:37
uef cze ire 2026 03 26 ire	2	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	03-26 14:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	05-30 08:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$2	28	28	+0	open	—	03-20 15:37
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	2	$2	6	6	+0	open	—	03-26 14:32
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-13 00:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-24 21:25
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	06-01 13:56
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-22 21:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$1	42	0	+42	open	—	05-31 23:34
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-30 10:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$1	4	0	+4	Yes	+$3	04-21 19:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-22 21:05
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	04-22 21:14
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-30 08:40
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	06-01 13:56
rusixnat fra eng 2026 03 14 eng	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	03-14 16:41
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-30 08:50
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-30 08:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	04-22 21:05
US recession by end of 2026?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-30 18:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-30 18:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-21 19:23
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 2?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	06-02 19:26