Foolish-Propane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$316.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.77K

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

303

Trades

15,270

lifetime

Volume

$13.3M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$869

Open exposure

$22.1K

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-21 13:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Politics

70% 69% +$782,758

Other

27% 62% -$467,812

Crypto

3% 67% +$1,380

Sports

1% 100% +$69

Tech

0% 100% +$66

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 115 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	-17,326	-$16,712	99¢	$-17170	-$458	06-07 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+71,109	$5,978	4¢	$2.6K	-$3,418	10-20 22:18
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+2,424	$2,230	96¢	$2.3K	+$90	09-20 17:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+29	$17	95¢	$27	+$11	06-20 17:52
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+0	-$6	98¢	$0	+$7	10-20 18:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	476	$812.8K	416,193	410,599	+5,595	Yes	+$4,452	04-13 04:10
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	75	$729.2K	367,670	367,670	+0	Yes	-$703	04-07 22:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	16	$619.2K	439,292	197,393	+241,899	Yes	+$16,914	03-03 21:15
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	222	$567.8K	516,627	60,369	+456,258	Yes	+$7,916	04-20 22:34
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	4	$509.5K	510,000	0	+510,000	No	+$510	06-25 03:01
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	7	$485.1K	486,450	100	+486,350	No	+$1,459	04-30 22:39
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	340	$429.9K	415,666	89,528	+326,138	Yes	+$8,332	03-08 21:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	112	$395.9K	273,384	177,384	+96,000	Yes	+$40,974	04-09 20:44
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$344.9K	316,500	30,000	+286,500	No	+$1,368	06-03 23:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	281	$299.5K	859,156	278,997	+580,160	Yes	+$347,771	06-15 21:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	467	$244.8K	865,041	573,125	+291,915	No	-$59,850	05-31 01:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	6	$227.6K	165,575	65,576	+99,999	No	+$323	06-27 02:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	98	$206.2K	165,215	103,215	+62,000	No	-$166	05-03 20:48
us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	3	$204.2K	204,444	0	+204,444	No	+$204	07-01 01:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	113	$188.6K	300,695	91,738	+208,957	Yes	+$63,158	06-15 04:22
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	191	$187.3K	213,090	8,910	+204,181	No	-$4,745	04-16 04:03
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	414	$184.4K	227,068	173,401	+53,667	Yes	+$120,247	08-11 06:29
will iran strike israel on march 10	30	$183.5K	184,144	0	+184,144	Yes	+$644	03-14 03:30
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	45	$169.7K	181,733	5,044	+176,688	Yes	+$16,134	07-28 01:01
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	93	$168.1K	170,546	0	+170,546	No	+$2,490	03-05 20:38
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	42	$166.3K	166,658	0	+166,658	Yes	+$378	06-17 16:03
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	60	$164.5K	165,021	0	+165,021	No	+$486	03-19 01:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	91	$147.2K	243,374	18,654	+224,721	No	+$85,893	05-26 01:46
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	113	$142.3K	139,758	13,924	+125,834	Yes	+$3,274	04-16 19:49
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	16	$141.4K	141,856	0	+141,856	Yes	+$453	05-02 14:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	706	$134.9K	1,455,048	287,851	+1,167,197	No	-$115,308	08-19 00:25
will trump praise allah again by april 15	110	$132.0K	133,532	0	+133,532	Yes	+$1,551	04-11 13:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	342	$128.0K	755,569	615,628	+139,941	No	-$71,325	09-26 00:41
iran closes its airspace by june 8	9	$119.8K	120,000	0	+120,000	Yes	+$180	06-08 05:03
will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	50	$119.7K	60,000	60,000	+0	No	+$35	03-15 17:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 13:16:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,116	8¢	$489	0xbb57b9…
10-21 12:30:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	8¢	$17	0xde3321…
10-21 11:52:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,134	8¢	$91	0x349fe1…
10-21 10:27:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	8¢	$13	0x6ad047…
10-21 10:27:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	666	8¢	$53	0x3a54ce…
10-21 08:31:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x73c7b5…
10-21 08:30:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0xc7469f…
10-21 06:21:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x5ac9b8…
10-21 04:53:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	427	8¢	$34	0xe7f676…
10-20 22:59:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x142dd8…
10-20 22:18:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,483	6¢	$89	0x5a1ab4…
10-20 22:07:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,296	8¢	$744	0x0c166a…
10-20 21:50:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,658	8¢	$133	0x2eda02…
10-20 20:23:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	537	10¢	$54	0xd891f0…
10-20 20:23:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	10¢	$500	0x30e5d2…
10-20 20:23:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x2b3a92…
10-20 20:23:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	10¢	$1,000	0x74f307…
10-20 20:18:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xfcb8f4…
10-20 20:09:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	999	6¢	$60	0xc00d37…
10-20 19:48:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	10¢	$32	0x026091…
10-20 19:42:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	10¢	$5	0x20f4c2…
10-20 19:33:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	9,062	6¢	$544	0x854269…
10-20 19:28:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x878837…
10-20 19:28:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x2572df…
10-20 19:16:35	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0x7b0351…
10-20 19:14:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	900	10¢	$90	0xa4d4da…
10-20 19:13:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xed12e4…
10-20 19:11:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0x93293a…
10-20 19:11:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,418	10¢	$142	0x5cdaca…
10-20 19:08:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	10¢	$14	0x0e4e46…
10-20 19:01:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x85e396…
10-20 18:59:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,182	10¢	$118	0x048792…
10-20 18:20:21	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	1,634	99¢	$1,623	0xacb3b5…
10-20 18:15:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	10¢	$500	0x6bfa70…
10-20 18:10:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x3cc4a7…
10-20 17:56:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	899	10¢	$90	0xeba995…
10-20 17:54:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x7fb644…
10-20 17:50:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xa53de8…
10-20 17:50:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xdb1829…
10-20 17:49:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x4ad8a3…
10-20 17:46:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,389	10¢	$439	0x2838d0…
10-20 17:35:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xe7a1da…
10-20 17:35:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	61	6¢	$4	0x17a5b7…
10-20 16:47:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xa59452…
10-20 16:47:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x9cd658…
10-20 12:12:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2,573	6¢	$154	0x2a4561…
10-20 10:51:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	213	6¢	$13	0x441e59…
10-20 05:57:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xe0e88c…
10-20 05:57:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x29e573…
10-20 04:37:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,041	10¢	$704	0xd0f1ac…
10-20 04:27:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	495	10¢	$50	0x4001c3…
10-20 03:49:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x4da83f…
10-20 03:21:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x42c820…
10-20 02:48:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	10¢	$22	0x975c94…
10-20 00:28:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,060	6¢	$64	0xb25bb2…
10-20 00:28:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5,550	6¢	$333	0x65d37b…
10-19 22:31:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x39126d…
10-19 22:31:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xef7439…
10-19 22:31:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,964	11¢	$986	0x95150f…
10-19 22:31:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x84607a…
10-19 22:06:27	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	1,634	99¢	$1,616	0xd7c451…
10-19 22:04:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	643	6¢	$39	0x97d2d5…
10-19 19:18:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,374	11¢	$1,031	0xadf7ce…
10-19 18:50:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x349184…
10-19 18:50:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,568	11¢	$172	0x1caf62…
10-19 17:56:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	750	11¢	$82	0xcb0b40…
10-19 17:55:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	68	6¢	$4	0xcc3970…
10-19 17:52:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,518	11¢	$1,157	0xb2bdf8…
10-19 13:09:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	19,161	5¢	$933	0x5136f8…
10-09 15:48:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	19,558	9¢	$1,760	0x7007ac…
10-09 12:20:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xbcea0e…
10-09 12:09:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x3139d8…
10-09 12:09:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xc240bb…
10-09 12:09:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x7f6ce0…
10-09 12:09:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xdbc8d4…
10-09 12:08:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x03112b…
10-09 12:08:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xff69d8…
10-09 12:08:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xef7014…
10-09 12:08:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x3eff3a…
10-09 12:08:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x3da619…
10-09 12:08:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xe7d7c2…
10-09 05:00:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xe82e25…
10-09 03:40:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0xe06b87…
10-09 02:51:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	800	9¢	$72	0x72da74…
10-09 02:09:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0xf299ce…
10-08 23:35:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,723	9¢	$155	0x77020e…
10-08 22:29:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	220	9¢	$20	0xae8967…
10-08 22:13:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	413	9¢	$37	0xc3a8af…
10-08 21:15:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	92	9¢	$8	0x14c8ff…
10-08 21:15:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x6a26d9…
10-08 21:15:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xad4dc3…
10-08 19:44:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x919265…
10-08 16:47:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xb38947…
10-08 14:12:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0x9abc9e…
10-08 14:06:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xe75c46…
10-08 09:32:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,099	9¢	$99	0x4b3ffd…
10-08 09:19:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x1980a3…
10-08 09:19:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x0d6c03…
10-08 08:51:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xd6d793…
10-08 08:39:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x5d8f9a…