Appropriate-Piccolo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.1%

Resolved

166

Trades

332

lifetime

Volume

$4.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 07-21 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

60% 39% +$87

Crypto

25% 55% -$21

Politics

11% 33% -$48

Sports

2% 25% -$11

Tech

1% 67% +$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	2	$409	481	481	+0	No	+$149	06-29 21:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$197	114	114	+0	Yes	-$3	06-02 13:23
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur	12	$190	240	188	+52	Kilian Feldbausch	+$88	04-24 20:26
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	7	$160	179	179	+0	Yes	-$52	07-03 00:36
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?	2	$148	98	98	+0	No	+$48	06-18 05:53
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?	2	$103	143	143	+0	Yes	+$3	05-18 20:06
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$94	100	100	+0	Yes	+$18	06-22 10:30
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?	3	$72	54	54	+0	Yes	+$32	06-16 06:24
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	3	$70	46	106	-60	Yes	+$0	05-25 19:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$66	47	47	+0	open	—	05-28 03:18
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?	3	$66	41	41	+0	No	+$16	06-18 17:37
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-20 12:00 UTC	7	$58	119	118	+1	Down	+$15	03-20 15:24
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17?	1	$50	96	0	+96	Yes	-$50	06-16 21:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 18:00 UTC	1	$50	168	0	+168	Up	-$50	03-18 18:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	2	$46	43	43	+0	No	+$26	06-17 01:54
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$42	45	45	+0	Yes	+$2	05-30 15:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 15:00 UTC	2	$40	36	36	+0	Down	+$30	03-18 15:15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$40	525	0	+525	Yes	-$40	04-18 19:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$39	50	50	+0	No	-$1	06-29 22:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$38	23	23	+0	No	+$8	06-01 07:40
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?	2	$38	28	28	+0	Yes	+$18	06-16 06:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$37	94	94	+0	No	-$3	06-29 22:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 16:15 UTC	2	$36	27	27	+0	Down	+$17	03-18 16:30
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?	2	$35	21	21	+0	No	+$7	06-18 05:51
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$35	51	51	+0	Yes	-$5	06-29 22:52
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21?	3	$34	40	32	+8	Down	+$8	05-21 12:39
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30 20260612142709367	2	$33	96	96	+0	No	-$7	06-22 16:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 14:30 UTC	2	$32	28	28	+0	Down	+$23	03-18 14:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?	2	$31	31	31	+0	Yes	-$7	06-19 12:49
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17?	3	$31	405	405	+0	No	+$11	06-17 05:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 17:19:58	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0x546b9d…
07-13 15:06:47	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xbe7727…
07-12 19:19:14	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	23	61¢	$14	0x2a9e40…
07-08 17:44:55	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xabd70b…
07-08 17:42:11	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x98188d…
07-08 17:40:11	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x1c4eb6…
07-08 17:39:04	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x6d8329…
07-03 00:36:23	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	179	30¢	$54	0xd5530f…
07-02 23:45:40	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x556dfb…
07-02 23:22:26	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xea4ff2…
07-02 23:21:52	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0x46bb3a…
07-02 23:21:29	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x6f1e72…
07-02 23:11:10	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xac46cd…
07-02 23:09:28	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	No	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xc177f9…
07-02 23:08:55	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xf386b0…
07-02 23:07:50	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	51	58¢	$30	0xf47d46…
06-30 01:35:22	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	No	SELL	17	62¢	$10	0x33a495…
06-29 22:58:37	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x37c01b…
06-29 22:53:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	94	18¢	$17	0xa48317…
06-29 22:52:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	51	29¢	$15	0xb098de…
06-29 22:52:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0x544732…
06-29 22:52:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	21	62¢	$13	0x76307c…
06-29 22:52:26	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	49	20¢	$10	0xabb75d…
06-29 22:51:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	333	1¢	$2	0xa204b5…
06-29 21:15:08	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	No	SELL	481	58¢	$279	0x6d4634…
06-28 22:15:01	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	No	BUY	481	27¢	$130	0x8b6701…
06-25 19:12:41	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0xaa2cdf…
06-22 16:53:56	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30 20260612142709367	Yes	SELL	96	13¢	$13	0x8498a4…
06-22 10:30:47	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x0c2b36…
06-22 02:06:10	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	SELL	69	14¢	$10	0xfab216…
06-22 02:05:50	starmer out by june 25 2026	No	SELL	83	10¢	$8	0x76dcc5…
06-22 02:05:47	starmer out by june 24 2026	No	SELL	83	12¢	$10	0xfb008f…
06-21 23:56:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	19	51¢	$10	0x6d2ad3…
06-21 23:49:16	starmer out by june 25 2026	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xec45fa…
06-21 23:45:29	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	BUY	69	13¢	$9	0x36c2f7…
06-21 23:44:59	starmer out by june 24 2026	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x78a190…
06-21 23:41:26	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x41e4ee…
06-21 23:29:47	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	59¢	$21	0xebeb9e…
06-21 23:26:10	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	36¢	$18	0xc9c55c…
06-21 23:25:13	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x077f05…
06-21 23:19:37	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30 20260612142709367	Yes	BUY	96	21¢	$20	0xccee23…
06-21 22:48:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x236137…
06-21 22:40:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0xc731ea…
06-21 22:37:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x6f16e5…
06-21 22:29:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xea48e0…
06-21 22:25:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	No	SELL	14	64¢	$9	0xc8b721…
06-21 22:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?	Yes	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0xb91963…
06-21 22:09:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	94	21¢	$20	0xaf3d97…
06-21 22:03:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x2dfacb…
06-21 21:24:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	No	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xe89c05…
06-21 21:17:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xa93e2b…
06-21 12:24:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21?	No	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x725b85…
06-20 09:12:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?	Yes	SELL	168	2¢	$3	0x00b1f4…
06-20 06:29:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	108	1¢	$1	0x583aa0…
06-20 06:27:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	168	3¢	$5	0xeb7459…
06-19 12:49:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?	No	SELL	31	40¢	$12	0xe6baf6…
06-19 12:48:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19?	No	SELL	21	70¢	$15	0xba69c8…
06-18 19:37:50	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$14	0x659b8b…
06-18 17:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xb3b552…
06-18 05:53:43	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x189e24…
06-18 05:53:05	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x37ad2a…
06-18 05:51:53	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x2c2403…
06-17 14:51:46	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 18?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$1	0xc714ba…
06-17 12:01:58	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x1918da…
06-17 12:00:44	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x932509…
06-17 11:58:19	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 18?	Yes	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x8ba9ef…
06-17 11:20:52	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 18?	No	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xbf6c13…
06-17 11:19:29	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 18?	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0x1684ed…
06-17 11:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?	No	SELL	15	58¢	$9	0xb8344e…
06-17 11:06:52	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18?	No	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x323c8a…
06-17 11:06:32	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?	No	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x0a6c99…
06-17 11:03:02	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x20aa11…
06-17 11:02:41	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x7e615b…
06-17 10:53:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x13ff8e…
06-17 10:53:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?	No	BUY	31	61¢	$19	0x868877…
06-17 07:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17?	Yes	SELL	38	15¢	$6	0xc027bd…
06-17 07:48:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 17?	Yes	SELL	430	0¢	$0	0xbd5a6f…
06-17 05:16:56	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17?	Yes	SELL	405	5¢	$21	0x35124c…
06-17 01:54:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	Yes	SELL	43	83¢	$36	0xff9ac6…
06-17 00:49:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	SELL	48	15¢	$7	0xfe97a8…
06-16 22:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xdd0eef…
06-16 22:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 17?	Yes	BUY	430	1¢	$5	0x7cf223…
06-16 21:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17?	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0x86cbd7…
06-16 21:57:44	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17?	Yes	BUY	227	2¢	$5	0x4fdad0…
06-16 21:55:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?	No	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x7910b4…
06-16 21:54:22	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x191f67…
06-16 21:51:31	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9c9d3f…
06-16 21:47:55	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x722de3…
06-16 21:42:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5beead…
06-16 11:09:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xe78530…
06-16 11:08:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x180136…
06-16 08:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x10f541…
06-16 07:53:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0xb5dd0e…
06-16 07:52:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16?	Yes	SELL	41	26¢	$11	0x6b408b…
06-16 06:25:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xe15031…
06-16 06:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?	Yes	SELL	54	97¢	$52	0xcf361b…
06-14 19:30:37	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xa1b280…
06-14 19:28:49	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc16082…
06-14 19:25:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x81267d…
06-14 19:19:10	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16?	No	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x1c96ea…