Pale-Shallows — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 07-21 11:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

40% 0% $-7

Politics

26% 50% $-7

Tech

22% — —

Crypto

12% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$778	436	436	+0	open	—	04-25 09:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?	2	$600	300	300	+0	open	—	06-03 09:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	6	$432	461	461	+0	open	—	04-27 08:16
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	2	$425	228	228	+0	open	—	07-09 14:11
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	2	$414	230	230	+0	open	—	06-11 12:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	2	$400	220	220	+0	open	—	06-07 01:44
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	3	$396	225	225	+0	open	—	07-14 15:38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	3	$388	219	219	+0	No	+$2	04-30 04:45
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	2	$381	219	219	+0	open	—	04-22 08:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$240	153	153	+0	open	—	04-01 06:23
houthis successfully target shipping by march 31	4	$147	100	100	+0	open	—	03-18 10:24
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	3	$101	144	144	+0	open	—	04-02 06:20
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$76	115	115	+0	Yes	$-7	04-09 09:09
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	3	$64	134	134	+0	open	—	04-02 10:47
spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	5	$57	54	54	+0	open	—	03-30 06:11
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$53	108	108	+0	open	—	04-09 06:21
spx up or down on march 30 2026	2	$52	56	56	+0	open	—	03-30 06:12
ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	4	$38	38	38	+0	open	—	03-20 02:27
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$38	134	134	+0	open	—	04-02 04:06
will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 02:02
trump approval up or down this week 678	4	$28	40	40	+0	open	—	03-31 03:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	2	$25	223	223	+0	open	—	05-27 13:04
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	2	$21	105	105	+0	open	—	04-02 09:33
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026?	1	$9	230	0	+230	Yes	$-9	05-12 05:12
bitboy convicted	2	$6	61	61	+0	open	—	03-27 06:55
iran full airspace closure by july 21	2	$6	229	229	+0	open	—	07-21 11:22
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	3	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	05-09 03:33
btc updown 5m 1773391200	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	03-13 08:46
btc updown 5m 1773390900	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	03-13 08:35
btc updown 5m 1773390300	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-13 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 11:22:19	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	229	1¢	$2	0x412b9d…
07-21 10:41:40	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	229	2¢	$3	0x6737d7…
07-14 15:38:52	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0xf5b07e…
07-14 15:35:29	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	185	88¢	$163	0x6c0a93…
07-14 14:56:07	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	225	88¢	$198	0x1e7eb9…
07-09 14:11:38	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	228	93¢	$212	0x664f14…
07-09 12:23:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	228	93¢	$212	0xa86c18…
07-08 02:02:20	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xc72f36…
07-08 02:01:07	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc66d9d…
06-11 12:39:34	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	230	90¢	$207	0x3120a6…
06-11 07:30:49	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	230	90¢	$207	0x68dd26…
06-07 01:44:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	220	91¢	$200	0x1b5d75…
06-06 14:31:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x0add47…
06-03 09:35:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xf232f5…
06-03 09:35:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x659fb3…
05-27 13:04:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	No	SELL	223	4¢	$9	0xb90f41…
05-27 12:21:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	223	7¢	$16	0x37eed7…
05-12 05:12:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	230	4¢	$9	0xfa526d…
05-09 03:33:23	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x31e100…
05-09 03:33:09	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3d89bb…
05-09 03:33:09	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x32177b…
04-30 04:45:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	189	89¢	$168	0x0564be…
04-30 04:42:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x30a359…
04-30 04:38:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	219	88¢	$193	0x20106a…
04-27 08:16:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	219	90¢	$197	0x12ed4e…
04-27 04:57:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	219	91¢	$199	0x7f95b2…
04-25 09:19:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	215	88¢	$189	0xb3f46b…
04-25 09:19:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	88¢	$189	0xfc7993…
04-24 04:02:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	221	91¢	$200	0xf843dd…
04-24 03:58:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	90¢	$199	0x91453d…
04-22 08:20:18	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	219	85¢	$186	0x113318…
04-22 08:17:02	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	89¢	$195	0xff06df…
04-21 05:48:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	6¢	$2	0x935deb…
04-21 05:35:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x9d4ed2…
04-21 05:35:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0xb559c3…
04-21 05:35:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	242	7¢	$17	0xa689de…
04-09 09:09:29	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	115	30¢	$35	0x07aca6…
04-09 06:21:57	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	108	24¢	$26	0xdc3f5b…
04-09 03:29:45	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	108	25¢	$27	0x4f7e67…
04-09 02:46:17	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	115	36¢	$41	0xccc49c…
04-02 10:47:11	houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	134	22¢	$29	0x624e49…
04-02 09:33:47	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	SELL	105	9¢	$10	0x2af3d2…
04-02 09:31:15	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	BUY	105	11¢	$12	0x925785…
04-02 06:20:15	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	SELL	144	35¢	$50	0x88b5f8…
04-02 04:06:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	134	14¢	$19	0xbcd416…
04-01 17:54:55	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	134	14¢	$19	0x9f68d0…
04-01 13:44:47	houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	130	26¢	$34	0xd277aa…
04-01 13:44:25	houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x039845…
04-01 12:25:27	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	BUY	73	35¢	$25	0x7fe3ca…
04-01 12:24:53	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x56fe83…
04-01 06:23:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	153	76¢	$116	0x907e4c…
03-31 12:46:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	153	81¢	$124	0x3dc4cc…
03-31 03:34:45	trump approval up or down this week 678	Up	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0xb02f84…
03-31 03:16:19	trump approval up or down this week 678	Up	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x008c54…
03-30 13:16:00	trump approval up or down this week 678	Up	SELL	36	38¢	$14	0xca0396…
03-30 11:03:50	trump approval up or down this week 678	Up	BUY	36	35¢	$13	0x78f2b3…
03-30 06:12:46	spx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0x3b8078…
03-30 06:11:36	spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	29	47¢	$14	0xcced80…
03-30 05:56:50	spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x967082…
03-30 04:47:58	spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x7b9688…
03-30 04:47:48	spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xd8bb80…
03-30 03:07:46	spx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x9ff971…
03-30 03:06:42	spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	54	54¢	$29	0x5849d8…
03-27 06:55:57	bitboy convicted	Yes	SELL	61	3¢	$2	0xcd7052…
03-27 06:38:13	bitboy convicted	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0x83a68e…
03-20 02:27:21	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	No	SELL	19	87¢	$16	0xa5c3e0…
03-20 02:27:17	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	Yes	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xf35b13…
03-18 10:24:59	houthis successfully target shipping by march 31	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x4d7246…
03-18 10:24:31	houthis successfully target shipping by march 31	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xf72c2c…
03-18 10:23:49	houthis successfully target shipping by march 31	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x22d1fc…
03-18 10:21:13	houthis successfully target shipping by march 31	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x8439f2…
03-18 08:59:05	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	No	BUY	19	92¢	$18	0xb9a7da…
03-18 08:53:55	ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0x6cb06a…
03-13 08:46:21	btc updown 5m 1773391200	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x4a911a…
03-13 08:40:17	btc updown 5m 1773391200	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2604ae…
03-13 08:35:13	btc updown 5m 1773390900	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x3dc961…
03-13 08:30:53	btc updown 5m 1773390600	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5893e2…
03-13 08:27:55	btc updown 5m 1773390300	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xbf6435…