Miniature-Disaster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

43.8%

Resolved

117

Trades

200

lifetime

Volume

$391

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 05-27 18:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Politics

56% 32% +$3

Other

37% 16% -$34

Crypto

6% 25% -$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-27).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	Yes		+14	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-27 18:18
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+10	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-27 18:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	2	$25	19	19	+0	Yes	+$3	04-28 20:08
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	6	$18	950	950	+0	No	+$2	05-22 18:09
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	5	$15	38	28	+10	No	+$1	01-30 06:52
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	6	$14	25	25	+0	Yes	+$4	01-31 08:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	$0	05-01 09:40
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	6	$11	233	233	+0	Yes	+$3	05-27 18:10
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?	3	$11	84	94	-10	No	-$1	05-01 17:17
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$9	11	11	+0	No	+$7	01-30 06:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$9	45	45	+0	No	-$1	05-01 17:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$9	13	13	+0	No	-$1	05-22 18:09
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	1	$8	0	16	-16	No	+$8	05-01 16:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$8	3	21	-18	Yes	-$12	01-30 06:45
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$8	243	243	+0	No	-$6	05-24 03:55
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	4	$7	202	202	+0	No	+$3	05-25 18:29
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	1	$7	0	9	-9	Yes	-$2	05-01 09:40
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	4	$6	160	160	+0	No	+$2	05-27 18:12
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	3	$6	155	155	+0	open	—	05-27 18:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$6	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	05-01 17:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$6	38	38	+0	No	$0	05-01 17:18
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	2	$5	10	10	+0	No	-$1	01-30 20:24
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	3	$5	31	17	+14	No	-$1	01-30 06:45
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$5	238	0	+238	No	-$5	04-27 12:46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	01-30 06:49
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	04-27 12:46
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	2	$4	489	0	+489	No	-$4	01-31 08:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$4	12	12	+0	No	+$0	01-30 06:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$4	38	38	+0	No	-$2	05-24 03:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$4	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-01 17:18
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	2	$4	8	8	+0	Yes	$0	01-30 20:22
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	2	$4	263	0	+263	No	-$4	05-01 09:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 18:21:14	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0xbe785f…
05-27 18:21:12	Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xd7f47e…
05-27 18:20:06	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2e2a9c…
05-27 18:20:02	Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	1¢	$1	0xda3719…
05-27 18:20:02	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x37fdfd…
05-27 18:20:00	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc310c8…
05-27 18:19:41	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xee2e6f…
05-27 18:19:18	Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd9cb6d…
05-27 18:19:10	Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x73bb28…
05-27 18:19:04	Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6b7bb4…
05-27 18:18:59	Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa5f3b0…
05-27 18:18:56	Will Donald Trump dance on May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbf1f1e…
05-27 18:18:29	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x18d47d…
05-27 18:18:22	Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x4d76e2…
05-27 18:16:11	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x70d9ac…
05-27 18:15:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaa4dce…
05-27 18:15:47	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x7e6782…
05-27 18:12:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x225af2…
05-27 18:12:34	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$1	0xce3b40…
05-27 18:12:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x163d88…
05-27 18:12:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0xb706af…
05-27 18:11:56	Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	35	4¢	$1	0x102e8c…
05-27 18:11:49	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x004420…
05-27 18:11:35	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x5fdf40…
05-27 18:11:26	Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0xfbe537…
05-27 18:11:15	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?	Yes	SELL	369	0¢	$1	0xf22bcd…
05-27 18:11:01	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x61c2fb…
05-27 18:10:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	34	9¢	$3	0xefe0e6…
05-27 18:10:42	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	155	2¢	$3	0x0ab1c4…
05-26 16:40:33	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xba5539…
05-25 18:31:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x19d80c…
05-25 18:31:04	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xd25b10…
05-25 18:30:33	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	BUY	57	2¢	$1	0xf489aa…
05-25 18:29:30	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	71	5¢	$4	0xb1b965…
05-24 13:04:16	Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x73cb03…
05-24 13:04:08	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x87eaae…
05-24 13:04:04	Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x3aa983…
05-24 13:03:59	Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x57944d…
05-24 13:03:52	Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x0d1e4a…
05-24 13:03:43	Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xea040c…
05-24 13:03:31	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xb37d46…
05-24 13:01:13	Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x984732…
05-24 03:55:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	243	0¢	$1	0xcf06f6…
05-24 03:54:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0xa2771b…
05-22 18:10:22	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0a3bf3…
05-22 18:10:19	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa0f4f6…
05-22 18:10:17	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xff19fd…
05-22 18:09:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	SELL	700	1¢	$6	0xc2f219…
05-22 18:09:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	28¢	$4	0x6fba94…
05-21 16:59:48	Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe912c8…
05-21 16:59:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0x88eb96…
05-21 16:57:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xce310d…
05-21 16:57:04	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6cc15a…
05-21 16:56:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc8a478…
05-21 16:56:53	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x85dd62…
05-21 16:56:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0xe73023…
05-21 16:56:36	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xdeb643…
05-21 16:56:32	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x4f1343…
05-21 16:56:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xdf29f6…
05-21 16:56:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x942c0c…
05-21 16:56:18	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x29db5b…
05-21 16:56:18	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x235fd2…
05-21 16:54:24	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x93cb02…
05-21 04:29:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x40de72…
05-21 04:29:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x586d8d…
05-21 04:28:02	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x323645…
05-21 04:24:55	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	131	1¢	$2	0xad1759…
05-21 04:24:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x75697f…
05-21 04:24:32	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x671d30…
05-21 04:24:23	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	SELL	235	1¢	$1	0x6f4a0e…
05-21 04:24:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	SELL	132	2¢	$3	0xb43a05…
05-21 04:24:09	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	75	3¢	$2	0x107cf8…
05-21 04:24:00	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$4	0xf36d25…
05-01 17:23:36	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x223cfa…
05-01 17:23:30	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x0761dd…
05-01 17:23:28	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x737b9f…
05-01 17:23:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0xc55f3f…
05-01 17:23:18	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	Yes	BUY	194	1¢	$1	0xc4ea83…
05-01 17:23:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x5daebb…
05-01 17:23:10	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xc56988…
05-01 17:23:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?	Yes	BUY	369	1¢	$2	0xd6a837…
05-01 17:23:00	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0xa1bc46…
05-01 17:22:56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	BUY	235	1¢	$2	0xb3dca1…
05-01 17:22:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	75	1¢	$1	0x0b24ca…
05-01 17:22:38	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x951167…
05-01 17:21:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	74	3¢	$2	0xff25c5…
05-01 17:21:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x8fef13…
05-01 17:19:16	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x682c1b…
05-01 17:18:56	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x6974d9…
05-01 17:18:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xdf1ea2…
05-01 17:18:40	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	124	1¢	$1	0x01df1e…
05-01 17:18:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x5a2b42…
05-01 17:18:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xdd4b1a…
05-01 17:17:58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xe2f9db…
05-01 17:17:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0x299a0b…
05-01 17:17:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	94	5¢	$5	0x9bada1…
05-01 16:08:30	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	124	2¢	$2	0x07a42e…
05-01 16:08:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xdc11af…
05-01 16:07:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	107	3¢	$3	0xc4b709…
05-01 16:03:36	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	16	53¢	$8	0x3de67e…