Trustworthy-Champagne — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$462

Hit rate

50.4%

Resolved

Trades

611

lifetime

Volume

$245.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$402

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 10-27 12:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

75% 27% +$5,020

Other

24% 6% -$27,548

Sports

2% 20% -$264

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes		+0	$462	8¢	$0	-$462	08-01 18:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	57	$64.3K	85,368	85,368	+0	No	+$13,546	06-15 06:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	12	$26.8K	123,045	43,018	+80,028	No	-$9,688	05-17 15:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	10	$21.3K	17,469	17,469	+0	No	+$10,953	04-21 19:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	12	$10.5K	188,596	101,260	+87,336	No	-$4,884	05-27 12:25
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$10.2K	30,856	13,594	+17,262	No	-$635	05-25 17:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	123	$8.4K	34,322	34,322	+0	No	-$1,570	05-20 08:57
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	23	$8.3K	7,545	7,545	+0	Yes	+$2,294	06-19 13:02
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$6.3K	5,405	5,405	+0	No	+$2,324	04-21 20:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	24	$5.0K	52,333	0	+52,333	No	-$5,049	06-04 19:22
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	17	$5.0K	73,678	46,277	+27,401	No	-$83	05-29 14:59
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	18	$4.6K	146,553	2,476	+144,077	Yes	-$3,523	05-15 18:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$4.4K	11,791	11,791	+0	No	+$984	05-22 18:39
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	5	$3.4K	4,965	4,965	+0	Yes	-$1,425	05-15 18:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	12	$3.4K	20,190	20,190	+0	No	+$691	05-24 14:27
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	3	$3.1K	22,294	0	+22,294	No	-$3,100	06-18 06:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$3.0K	7,293	0	+7,293	Yes	-$3,000	06-14 22:08
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	6	$2.9K	20,699	0	+20,699	No	-$2,900	07-20 19:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$2.8K	20,527	20,527	+0	No	+$159	06-11 15:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$2.4K	26,388	26,388	+0	No	-$1,625	05-18 11:46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.2K	2,941	2,941	+0	Yes	+$1,235	07-19 12:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	5	$2.0K	20,475	20,475	+0	Yes	-$380	05-23 00:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$2.0K	12,006	0	+12,006	No	+$10,006	05-25 21:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$2.0K	39,161	0	+39,161	No	-$2,000	05-19 10:49
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$1.8K	9,128	9,128	+0	No	+$14	05-25 21:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$1.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$200	05-21 10:40
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$1.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$1,249	06-07 19:11
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	2	$1.7K	1,684	1,684	+0	No	-$288	07-20 10:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$1.7K	9,766	0	+9,766	No	-$1,700	05-06 09:41
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$1.6K	11,106	0	+11,106	No	-$1,606	05-21 12:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$1.5K	40,074	0	+40,074	No	-$1,539	05-14 14:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:23:02	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	49	3¢	$1	0x67556b…
10-27 13:22:21	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x7b4a9d…
10-27 13:18:00	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x13463b…
10-27 13:14:12	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	400	3¢	$12	0x907a01…
10-27 13:14:12	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x1bc42d…
10-27 13:12:23	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x79158e…
10-27 12:55:32	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0xbeb001…
10-27 12:55:30	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xcf9e1d…
10-27 12:55:30	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xa7a711…
10-27 12:55:30	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x041a9a…
10-27 12:39:54	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	64	3¢	$2	0xf73f3a…
10-27 12:38:05	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xbeebc4…
10-27 12:38:00	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xbaf92f…
10-27 12:30:59	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0x4a3495…
10-27 12:20:47	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	65	3¢	$2	0xe6caeb…
10-27 12:20:47	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0xd112e2…
10-27 12:17:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xfbbb07…
10-27 12:17:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xe103d2…
10-27 12:17:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xc10f0c…
10-27 12:17:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xb5b8b3…
10-27 12:17:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x9d4387…
10-27 12:17:11	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x1e8b83…
10-27 12:00:59	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	510	1¢	$5	0xc1ab11…
10-27 12:00:59	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$2	0x8e6480…
10-27 11:18:00	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x21b32c…
10-27 11:13:33	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x00d9e2…
10-27 10:23:36	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xc48043…
10-27 10:23:03	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x73d709…
10-27 10:02:53	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xdb0b23…
10-27 09:58:14	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	124	1¢	$1	0x5cd619…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	400	3¢	$12	0xf8dad6…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x919418…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	106	3¢	$3	0x7ae99f…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x777c81…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	150	3¢	$4	0x649221…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x60812f…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	162	3¢	$5	0x522025…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x2823c0…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	124	3¢	$4	0x25fd40…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	125	3¢	$4	0x212aad…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x107226…
10-27 09:58:03	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	84	3¢	$3	0x0c1a34…
10-27 09:57:02	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x09894b…
10-27 09:50:33	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xe7251e…
10-27 09:50:33	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0x82b412…
10-27 09:50:33	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x567cba…
10-27 09:49:51	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x91272d…
10-27 09:49:51	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x1378be…
10-27 09:31:06	Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	173	6¢	$10	0xac8b8f…
10-27 09:30:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xd745fe…
10-27 09:26:47	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	403	12¢	$50	0xdfa3fc…
10-27 07:47:47	Will Yashar win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	193	5¢	$10	0x497060…
10-27 07:46:17	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	680	7¢	$50	0x23914a…
10-27 06:55:11	Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	580	52¢	$300	0xf96606…
10-27 06:54:18	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x621d2d…
10-27 06:54:05	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd54d1f…
10-27 06:53:24	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	1,381	14¢	$200	0x384a8c…
10-26 20:25:17	Will Shaul Meridor be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x248705…
10-26 20:25:15	Will Shaul Meridor be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xc0610c…
10-26 20:25:15	Will Shaul Meridor be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$0	0x7523f6…
10-26 19:17:54	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	505	20¢	$100	0x0d7f7b…
10-26 18:55:26	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0xe8a3a2…
10-26 17:55:33	Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	273	37¢	$100	0xf895cd…
10-26 11:14:11	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	1,037	14¢	$150	0x4c84d6…
10-25 09:19:00	Will The Joint List win 5.5-6.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	71	10¢	$7	0x661d9d…
10-25 09:15:56	Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	245	15¢	$37	0xebd70f…
08-01 18:57:36	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	132	14¢	$18	0xca3c45…
08-01 18:57:20	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	14¢	$210	0xc75e7e…
08-01 18:57:00	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	14¢	$140	0x1ceb13…
07-30 21:11:59	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	79	14¢	$11	0xa1996d…
07-29 17:57:27	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	714	14¢	$100	0xde8438…
07-28 19:47:13	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xe58c79…
07-27 22:09:06	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x7eb1b3…
07-27 09:23:31	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x3eb75e…
07-26 11:38:49	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	400	14¢	$56	0x606019…
07-22 12:42:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	3,000	10¢	$300	0x950d3b…
07-22 12:41:16	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x527678…
07-22 09:49:13	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xbdeee1…
07-22 09:47:39	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x03af49…
07-22 09:25:21	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	2,409	8¢	$200	0x8ec434…
07-20 19:07:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0xe3c579…
07-20 19:06:37	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	3,309	15¢	$500	0x0c883f…
07-20 17:20:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	4,990	4¢	$200	0x19dcf9…
07-20 14:30:21	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	5,000	10¢	$500	0xafe9c4…
07-20 13:23:00	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	4,327	5¢	$216	0x17b7ce…
07-20 13:19:42	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	5,263	5¢	$263	0x606f77…
07-20 12:49:21	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0xe1fbbc…
07-20 12:43:13	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x6dec42…
07-20 12:43:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xdbd1be…
07-20 11:36:33	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	3,750	15¢	$562	0x44b425…
07-20 11:34:15	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x72e4e9…
07-20 11:34:03	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x29e03d…
07-20 11:33:03	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0x62ddc4…
07-20 11:33:03	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	23	15¢	$3	0x3bec62…
07-20 11:33:01	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x37b84c…
07-20 11:33:01	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x20a0a5…
07-20 11:32:57	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x0c5c9c…
07-20 11:32:55	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x08afd4…
07-20 10:33:36	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	4,628	10¢	$463	0xaaaa2f…
07-20 10:23:33	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	4,315	7¢	$300	0x9037da…