Sizzling-Hovercraft 0xcb11f6…db0d5e
cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$3.47K
Unrealized P&L
+$568
Hit rate
62.1%
Resolved
148
Trades
1,241
lifetime
Volume
$90.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$73
Open exposure
$9.33K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-25 23:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 63 days
Categories
Politics
62% 41% -$4,160
Other
34% 41% +$565
Sports
3% 67% +$108
Crypto
0% 100% +$18
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 88 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,000 $1,660 92¢ $1.8K +$170 07-11 00:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,000 -$1,591 88¢ $885 +$2,476 09-20 00:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1,000 $790 87¢ $874 +$84 08-07 03:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,000 $735 82¢ $815 +$80 07-31 22:10
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +500 $380 86¢ $427 +$47 08-18 18:19
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -1,000 -$391 38¢ $-385 +$6 05-03 09:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -2,000 -$490 18¢ $-370 +$120 07-15 19:33
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +8,100 $2,039 4¢ $352 -$1,686 09-15 15:19
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -1,000 -$400 26¢ $-265 +$135 07-15 22:16
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +360 $255 70¢ $250 -$5 10-11 14:34
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 Yes +2,000 $460 12¢ $250 -$210 09-24 10:18
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +300 $216 72¢ $216 +$0 10-11 04:18
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,327 $375 16¢ $212 -$163 08-30 08:44
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +800 $216 26¢ $204 -$12 10-11 16:14
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +200 $168 94¢ $187 +$19 05-31 12:35
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +220 $133 84¢ $184 +$51 10-05 07:42
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +400 $170 44¢ $174 +$4 10-23 11:14
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes +180 $160 90¢ $163 +$3 10-12 01:54
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +180 $138 88¢ $158 +$20 10-14 02:29
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes +200 $150 78¢ $156 +$6 10-23 09:25
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +600 $152 26¢ $153 +$1 10-23 05:03
us iran final nuclear deal by november 30 2026 Yes +2,000 $300 7¢ $140 -$160 08-13 18:20
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +200 $120 62¢ $125 +$5 10-18 12:40
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +500 $80 20¢ $103 +$23 10-11 04:07
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +150 $103 65¢ $97 -$6 10-24 21:31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +540 $125 14¢ $77 -$48 08-07 16:15
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes +606 $182 12¢ $73 -$109 09-02 11:05
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +100 $73 70¢ $70 -$4 10-06 17:37
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? Yes +12,500 $478 1¢ $69 -$409 09-18 12:34
US recession by end of 2026? Yes -850 -$194 8¢ $-64 +$130 05-12 18:57