Thick-Outrun — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

33.6%

Resolved

Trades

269

lifetime

Volume

$11.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$115

1 position

First seen

2026-03-19

last 06-22 09:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% — —

Politics

38% 25% $-5

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No		+120	$112	96¢	$115	+$2	06-22 09:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	9	$514	417	417	+0	open	—	03-20 09:15
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	10	$398	492	492	+0	open	—	04-27 17:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$388	203	203	+0	open	—	05-07 23:50
will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$384	194	194	+0	open	—	04-07 07:19
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	5	$375	190	190	+0	open	—	04-25 10:58
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	5	$348	189	189	+0	open	—	04-10 10:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	13	$221	614	475	+139	open	—	05-11 02:10
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	4	$214	213	213	+0	open	—	03-31 04:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	2	$207	106	106	+0	No	+$2	05-08 21:34
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 29 2026	2	$206	105	105	+0	open	—	03-31 15:19
will xrp dip to 1 in march 2026	2	$206	107	107	+0	open	—	03-26 23:48
will iowa win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$206	105	105	+0	open	—	03-28 23:42
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 200 219	2	$204	109	109	+0	open	—	03-25 23:16
will viktor hovland win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$203	203	203	+0	open	—	04-08 19:18
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	3	$202	104	104	+0	open	—	03-30 15:45
will tommy fleetwood win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$201	104	104	+0	open	—	04-05 13:44
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 420 439	3	$199	109	109	+0	open	—	03-20 15:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$198	103	103	+0	No	+$0	05-09 11:49
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$195	102	102	+0	open	—	04-28 00:45
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	3	$195	99	99	+0	open	—	04-23 00:05
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	3	$195	99	99	+0	open	—	04-27 08:06
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	2	$195	98	98	+0	open	—	04-30 21:40
will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	04-10 00:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	7	$194	248	248	+0	No	$-2	05-02 11:35
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	6	$194	197	197	+0	open	—	04-02 23:41
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	3	$193	101	101	+0	open	—	04-21 22:10
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	2	$191	97	97	+0	open	—	04-21 07:16
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$190	96	96	+0	open	—	04-20 03:52
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$189	102	102	+0	open	—	04-20 16:26
will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	3	$189	96	96	+0	open	—	03-23 20:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:26:58	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xe09c82…
06-22 09:26:58	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	90	94¢	$84	0x5e4cef…
06-08 08:26:06	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	58	91¢	$53	0xf0b2e5…
05-18 22:25:17	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xc57709…
05-18 22:25:17	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x91f5fd…
05-13 06:37:57	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x9a7a98…
05-13 03:25:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x4dddc1…
05-13 00:40:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	95	98¢	$93	0x52cf90…
05-12 12:14:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	90	94¢	$85	0x947801…
05-12 09:26:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	78	95¢	$74	0xa3637f…
05-12 09:26:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x809a5b…
05-11 13:17:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0xcbcd4f…
05-11 11:17:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	4¢	$6	0x8ecf4c…
05-11 10:08:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	4¢	$8	0xa72c66…
05-11 02:10:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	4¢	$3	0xa93c18…
05-11 02:10:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x8f46c1…
05-11 02:10:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$3	0x424690…
05-09 11:49:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	103	96¢	$99	0x56b0b9…
05-09 11:49:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	103	96¢	$99	0x826c69…
05-08 21:34:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0xc3c9fa…
05-08 20:03:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	106	97¢	$103	0xc6ea8d…
05-07 23:50:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	96	97¢	$93	0x965896…
05-07 19:42:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0x4b3e2f…
05-07 02:21:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x360d4f…
05-07 00:30:55	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0xe633b0…
05-06 19:56:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	107	95¢	$102	0xbeedcf…
05-06 17:05:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	107	94¢	$101	0xff6320…
05-06 06:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	6¢	$7	0xe55b65…
05-06 06:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x25b843…
05-06 05:00:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	5¢	$4	0x655ba0…
05-06 04:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	5¢	$4	0x7905c9…
05-06 04:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0x3d274d…
05-05 17:31:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	4¢	$7	0x97a3d7…
05-05 12:53:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	3¢	$6	0x31146a…
05-05 08:55:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	70	96¢	$67	0xcf54ed…
05-05 08:55:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x7f94a8…
05-05 04:24:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0x2ea8de…
05-04 02:08:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	6¢	$5	0xf6811c…
05-03 06:40:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	146	4¢	$6	0x76d8f5…
05-03 04:37:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	4¢	$6	0xec65ce…
05-02 11:35:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	48	97¢	$46	0xf3e0b9…
05-02 11:35:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0x447250…
05-02 09:02:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	92	97¢	$89	0x8b4171…
05-01 17:17:56	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	248	2¢	$5	0xf3c895…
05-01 14:10:32	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	1¢	$3	0x222bdd…
05-01 07:56:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	4¢	$7	0x91bf44…
05-01 07:56:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x67f520…
05-01 05:35:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	6¢	$6	0x993098…
05-01 05:35:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	6¢	$3	0x7da1e1…
04-30 21:40:16	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0xc9d298…
04-30 19:05:18	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0xa431be…
04-29 20:51:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0xd2cd8b…
04-29 20:51:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	46	99¢	$45	0x1823f8…
04-29 15:53:40	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x47ec70…
04-29 15:53:40	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0x003365…
04-28 00:45:20	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	102	96¢	$98	0x91b2fc…
04-27 20:37:46	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	102	95¢	$97	0x835585…
04-27 17:26:16	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	99	99¢	$98	0x169cec…
04-27 15:09:30	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	99	98¢	$98	0xc2325c…
04-27 08:06:10	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x8a2f8a…
04-27 08:06:10	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0x854d56…
04-27 06:11:24	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x7785ee…
04-27 01:12:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	1¢	$2	0xb0ca9c…
04-27 01:12:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0x0e078a…
04-27 01:12:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x06d7d7…
04-26 20:35:02	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	231	1¢	$3	0xcc2108…
04-26 14:07:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xfe3e83…
04-26 14:07:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$68	0x5ef057…
04-26 12:01:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x2b91ed…
04-26 05:00:08	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	1¢	$2	0xc20255…
04-26 05:00:08	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0x9c0f38…
04-26 03:39:18	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0x75535e…
04-26 01:08:24	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0x6b5747…
04-26 01:08:24	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x636d2d…
04-25 20:56:08	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$90	0x0297d1…
04-25 10:58:16	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xbd96f0…
04-25 10:58:16	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xa81ac4…
04-25 05:32:00	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xdf63eb…
04-25 01:59:48	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0x34ce9f…
04-25 01:59:46	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xd6a050…
04-24 22:20:20	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x60eca1…
04-24 20:05:18	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xe1e3d5…
04-24 18:12:32	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa2c7be…
04-24 04:26:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	169	7¢	$11	0xa1f340…
04-24 00:31:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	169	7¢	$11	0x534823…
04-23 21:20:00	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0xf42e0a…
04-23 21:20:00	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0xa56b00…
04-23 17:06:32	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$90	0x2a2195…
04-23 14:03:18	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	SELL	62	4¢	$2	0xe69cb2…
04-23 14:03:18	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0xa75ea3…
04-23 14:03:18	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	SELL	34	4¢	$1	0x52b918…
04-23 14:03:18	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	SELL	159	4¢	$6	0x28aba1…
04-23 10:09:54	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0x22ef34…
04-23 04:45:54	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	95	94¢	$89	0x7db8a8…
04-23 01:00:28	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xfcab10…
04-23 01:00:28	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	86	93¢	$80	0x5e69a9…
04-23 00:05:26	Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xa8c594…
04-23 00:05:26	Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x136c18…
04-22 21:40:36	Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x831de5…
04-21 22:10:38	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xd740eb…