Realized P&L
+$498
Unrealized P&L
+$626
Hit rate
71.4%
Resolved
7,879
Trades
54,467
lifetime
Volume
$223.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.90K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-31
last 10-23 17:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 93 days
Categories
Other
93% 45% +$339
Politics
3% 48% +$147
Crypto
3% 42% -$2
Sports
1% 44% +$20
Tech
0% 50% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 1238 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +136 $84 100¢ $136 +$52 10-20 14:47
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +145 $69 94¢ $136 +$67 08-27 07:58
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31 No +148 $65 86¢ $127 +$62 08-13 18:58
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +150 $92 80¢ $121 +$29 10-05 17:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +119 $88 100¢ $119 +$31 09-05 12:32
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +110 $46 98¢ $108 +$62 10-12 17:37
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +90 $55 90¢ $80 +$25 09-21 16:44
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +90 $49 84¢ $76 +$27 08-20 23:47
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +90 $46 84¢ $76 +$30 09-21 18:14
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +71 $43 99¢ $71 +$27 09-29 20:42
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +70 $53 100¢ $70 +$17 10-22 03:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +70 $49 97¢ $68 +$19 09-15 17:54
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +60 $35 100¢ $60 +$25 08-20 23:26
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +80 $57 71¢ $57 $0 09-28 14:43
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +50 $24 100¢ $50 +$26 10-12 18:39
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +50 $24 100¢ $50 +$25 10-07 23:48
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +50 $18 99¢ $49 +$31 10-04 22:59
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +60 $45 76¢ $46 +$0 09-28 11:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +50 $32 86¢ $43 +$11 09-05 10:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +40 $32 100¢ $40 +$8 10-21 20:36
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +40 $24 97¢ $39 +$15 09-06 20:46
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +38 $13 100¢ $38 +$25 09-12 21:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +60 $21 58¢ $35 +$13 10-19 17:49
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +40 $23 80¢ $32 +$9 09-20 16:12
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +33 $28 97¢ $32 +$4 10-19 20:10
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +70 $46 42¢ $30 -$16 10-20 15:12
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +151 $49 20¢ $29 -$20 10-08 15:54
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +30 $23 96¢ $29 +$5 09-20 17:53
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +31 $19 89¢ $27 +$8 10-21 21:03
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +36 $18 72¢ $26 +$8 10-21 14:27