Big-Toenail — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$972

Unrealized P&L

+$88

Hit rate

2.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

122

1,786 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$11.8K

$266.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$149

Open exposure

$538

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 11-07 19:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Politics

95% 29% +$13,886

Other

5% 25% -$1,475

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,850	-$169	19¢	$347	+$516	11-07 19:57
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	-3,368	$116	2¢	$-71	-$187	11-05 23:39
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+954	$100	7¢	$69	-$31	11-05 18:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-240	-$9	11¢	$-25	-$16	08-02 08:40
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	+1,337	$139	1¢	$15	-$125	11-06 22:09
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	+2,413	$54	0¢	$12	-$41	11-06 21:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	+62	$13	0¢	$0	-$12	11-06 22:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	+44	$15	0¢	$0	-$15	11-03 09:13
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	-0	$0	3¢	$-0	+$0	04-29 20:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	163	$47.7K	48,674	48,871	-197	Yes	-$725	03-22 00:01
will israel take military action in gaza on march 31 2026	85	$15.4K	10,016	11,007	-991	Yes	+$310	04-02 13:44
will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	41	$11.2K	9,955	9,955	+0	Yes	+$1,323	03-09 01:35
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	4	$10.5K	8,895	8,895	+0	Yes	+$7,300	02-28 08:03
will israel strike gaza on march 7 2026	18	$9.3K	5,868	5,868	+0	Yes	+$2,427	03-07 19:03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$9.1K	6,446	6,446	+0	Yes	-$54	03-31 05:46
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	38	$8.2K	10,095	10,095	+0	No	+$1,297	06-14 21:18
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	82	$7.7K	16,269	10,935	+5,335	No	+$185	04-03 20:46
will israel take military action in gaza on march 30 2026	28	$7.2K	4,559	4,559	+0	Yes	+$1,824	03-30 10:47
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	28	$6.0K	8,784	8,784	+0	open	—	08-23 10:26
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	39	$5.7K	13,947	11,873	+2,074	Yes	+$1,949	07-27 09:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	14	$5.3K	5,189	3,901	+1,288	Yes	+$318	04-05 08:59
will israel take military action in gaza on march 22 2026	20	$5.3K	3,098	3,098	+0	Yes	+$553	03-22 19:58
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	45	$5.0K	7,633	7,633	+0	No	+$1,122	05-25 23:36
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	3	$4.3K	3,543	3,543	+0	Yes	+$2,786	02-28 08:03
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?	32	$4.3K	5,544	5,544	+0	Yes	-$914	04-03 16:30
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?	25	$3.9K	2,402	2,402	+0	Yes	+$469	04-05 11:18
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	12	$3.7K	6,474	4,624	+1,850	open	—	11-07 19:57
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	11	$3.6K	11,506	11,506	+0	Yes	+$185	03-02 00:43
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	38	$3.5K	10,667	7,697	+2,970	No	-$1,498	04-16 17:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	22	$3.3K	10,588	10,588	+0	No	-$289	06-13 07:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	19	$3.2K	33,151	25,926	+7,224	Yes	+$236	04-08 17:26
will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	16	$3.1K	3,287	3,287	+0	No	-$1,155	03-10 09:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	34	$2.6K	3,188	3,388	-200	No	-$121	04-14 07:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	15	$2.5K	7,058	7,058	+0	No	-$403	05-28 14:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	8	$2.3K	6,241	6,241	+0	No	+$1,821	05-25 23:11
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 24 2026	27	$2.3K	3,251	3,251	+0	Yes	-$1,256	03-25 12:19
will israel take military action in gaza on march 24 2026	14	$2.3K	3,644	1,731	+1,913	Yes	+$456	03-25 11:37
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	20	$2.2K	4,054	4,237	-183	Yes	-$1,279	05-29 13:34
israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	26	$2.1K	5,181	2,780	+2,401	Yes	-$472	08-22 12:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 19:57:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,418	21¢	$300	0x7d9234…
11-06 23:07:25	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	295	34¢	$100	0xd3c095…
11-06 22:10:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	350	5¢	$17	0x2aad96…
11-06 22:09:54	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	624	5¢	$30	0x272c51…
11-06 21:58:12	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2,413	1¢	$20	0xf07282…
11-06 01:24:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	SELL	1,554	2¢	$26	0x8193ec…
11-06 01:23:51	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	2,138	7¢	$141	0xdc01a0…
11-05 23:39:00	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xc441a3…
11-05 23:38:52	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xf61e0e…
11-05 23:14:30	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2,225	9¢	$200	0x1b187e…
11-05 23:11:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	SELL	1,827	1¢	$16	0x510579…
11-05 23:08:04	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1,827	3¢	$50	0xa19b7d…
11-05 23:07:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0x92aa5e…
11-05 23:05:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	412	7¢	$30	0x746e10…
11-05 23:05:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	BUY	1,554	2¢	$31	0xc21114…
11-05 18:27:57	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	954	10¢	$100	0x564e35…
11-05 18:09:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,228	26¢	$316	0x87090c…
11-05 17:54:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,656	30¢	$500	0x9dcd5d…
11-03 11:40:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe62971…
11-03 09:13:52	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xf2f5b2…
11-03 09:13:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	581	6¢	$35	0xbd528c…
11-01 17:48:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0xa59094…
11-01 17:45:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xda0026…
10-28 15:04:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,396	48¢	$1,630	0xbf63da…
10-25 22:12:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	667	15¢	$100	0x11c6c7…
10-25 22:10:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x91b967…
10-25 20:56:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0x00f590…
10-24 04:14:48	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcdd129…
10-24 04:08:00	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x47a77e…
10-23 01:38:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	138	7¢	$10	0xade43e…
10-21 20:03:56	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x973f12…
10-21 20:03:42	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0x6a892a…
10-21 20:03:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x67174d…
10-21 20:03:02	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	SELL	714	2¢	$14	0x4ae682…
10-21 20:02:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	SELL	321	1¢	$3	0x513e49…
10-21 20:02:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xb2f83d…
10-21 20:01:59	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0x1f3744…
10-21 20:01:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	SELL	372	1¢	$4	0x12b29b…
10-21 19:59:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	BUY	759	2¢	$12	0xd39870…
10-18 18:23:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0xf355fc…
10-13 20:59:13	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	557	10¢	$56	0xa00c87…
10-13 18:46:13	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x0b51a8…
10-13 14:41:37	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xb40c24…
10-13 10:46:08	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	166	10¢	$17	0x3ab1d2…
10-13 09:57:37	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6040ad…
10-13 04:04:11	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0xa45b69…
10-12 22:26:12	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x2c77d8…
10-12 22:25:27	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x1cffc0…
10-12 20:39:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5f4b55…
10-12 20:39:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x00deb0…
10-11 10:41:06	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	746	8¢	$60	0xd1d3c3…
10-10 22:20:03	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	254	8¢	$20	0x71e3d1…
10-08 16:22:20	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	612	5¢	$31	0x69d206…
10-07 11:31:01	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	SELL	714	8¢	$58	0xbd57ee…
10-01 06:22:14	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	88	5¢	$4	0xfbdabe…
10-01 06:22:06	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x750b9a…
10-01 06:22:03	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xb01f6f…
10-01 06:21:59	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x3b9552…
10-01 06:21:56	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xba2632…
09-29 11:43:42	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	653	8¢	$50	0x42d92a…
09-21 00:49:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0xab3d4f…
09-20 16:34:25	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	313	9¢	$27	0x2e66c8…
09-20 16:34:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	SELL	1,114	2¢	$25	0xd67dc3…
09-20 16:31:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0x19ae63…
09-20 00:40:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	852	12¢	$100	0x00abbd…
09-20 00:18:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	SELL	241	13¢	$31	0x4e4452…
09-20 00:14:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	503	20¢	$100	0xaf83c4…
09-17 18:54:39	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	313	8¢	$25	0x87149d…
09-13 23:18:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbfca4b…
09-13 23:17:39	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf768ae…
08-23 10:26:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	374	27¢	$100	0xfc1f1f…
08-23 10:26:33	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	701	28¢	$199	0x6a1a94…
08-22 21:31:18	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0x18d090…
08-22 17:17:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	320	30¢	$96	0x69b517…
08-22 17:10:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	223	30¢	$67	0x31065c…
08-22 12:50:07	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	800	14¢	$112	0xd2dfca…
08-22 12:48:15	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	501	20¢	$100	0xfb30a3…
08-22 12:48:15	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	22	16¢	$3	0x8ee8e7…
08-22 12:47:19	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x376214…
08-22 12:47:16	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	310	17¢	$53	0xad0a32…
08-22 12:47:16	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x8593db…
08-22 12:40:54	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	SELL	2,311	20¢	$462	0xc167c0…
08-22 12:39:46	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xd58da9…
08-22 12:39:18	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x23ce9d…
08-22 12:39:03	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x410ec0…
08-22 12:39:00	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	27	24¢	$6	0x4bcb6f…
08-22 12:38:42	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	92	24¢	$22	0x6e0ee9…
08-22 12:38:36	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x92ec2e…
08-22 12:38:12	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0xf10e69…
08-22 12:31:51	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	541	18¢	$100	0x92581e…
08-22 12:28:58	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	381	26¢	$100	0x0fa965…
08-22 12:28:03	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	341	29¢	$100	0x45effc…
08-22 12:26:21	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	329	30¢	$100	0x0b6e75…
08-22 12:24:39	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	No	BUY	319	31¢	$100	0x1df3c4…
08-22 12:23:34	israel military action against syria by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	246	74¢	$182	0x41e736…
08-22 12:23:21	israel military action against syria by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	470	78¢	$366	0xf9cfab…
08-22 12:15:09	israel military action against syria by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	56	74¢	$41	0x978388…
08-22 12:15:03	israel military action against syria by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	97	74¢	$72	0x68d43c…
08-22 12:15:03	israel military action against syria by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	244	75¢	$184	0x2b095a…
08-22 12:15:03	israel military action against syria by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	137	74¢	$101	0x21cdb4…