Steep-Visa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$80.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$8.70K

Hit rate

94.2%

Resolved

Trades

740

lifetime

Volume

$857.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.16K

Open exposure

$108.2K

20 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 10-26 10:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

85% 70% +$81,826

Politics

14% 64% -$898

Tech

0% 0% -$190

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+23,000	$18,456	88¢	$20.4K	+$1,899	10-01 16:20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+15,603	$13,214	100¢	$15.6K	+$2,350	09-11 11:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+12,180	$10,390	94¢	$11.4K	+$1,059	09-25 16:04
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 222 252	No	+13,426	$10,606	84¢	$11.3K	+$739	08-21 11:55
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	+9,765	$8,409	90¢	$8.7K	+$330	10-24 02:43
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+12,200	$7,777	66¢	$8.0K	+$214	10-02 23:06
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+6,726	$6,087	88¢	$5.9K	-$201	09-16 20:14
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	+6,096	$5,333	90¢	$5.5K	+$185	09-14 08:11
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,764	$3,652	90¢	$4.3K	+$612	08-27 22:30
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	+3,830	$2,996	96¢	$3.7K	+$687	09-22 14:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+3,500	$3,010	98¢	$3.4K	+$402	10-12 13:38
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+3,718	$3,353	90¢	$3.3K	-$7	10-01 18:03
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,757	$1,416	92¢	$1.6K	+$201	08-27 22:56
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	+1,156	$1,082	96¢	$1.1K	+$32	09-18 19:28
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	+1,261	$906	82¢	$1.0K	+$122	09-18 19:27
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+7,946	$874	12¢	$914	+$40	10-23 23:51
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+798	$762	96¢	$766	+$4	09-18 12:54
russia military action against eu country by december 31 2026	No	+750	$660	92¢	$686	+$26	09-19 08:54
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	+512	$414	80¢	$412	-$3	10-07 18:56
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	+75	$67	97¢	$73	+$5	07-30 22:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	20	$97.0K	63,042	63,042	-0	No	+$20,564	07-25 23:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	16	$82.2K	44,000	44,000	+0	No	+$5,424	08-27 22:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	34	$67.4K	42,018	42,018	+0	No	+$9,935	06-30 14:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	90	$64.9K	38,186	38,186	+0	No	+$9,045	04-23 22:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	11	$57.1K	35,657	35,657	+0	No	+$13,803	07-09 22:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	30	$44.9K	24,580	24,580	+0	No	+$3,838	05-12 00:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$40.6K	25,500	24,500	+1,000	Yes	+$676	06-14 22:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	13	$34.7K	18,809	18,809	+0	No	+$2,085	09-28 14:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	6	$31.9K	18,096	18,096	+0	No	+$3,763	09-14 22:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	18	$28.6K	17,090	19,000	-1,910	No	+$6,210	05-25 11:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	8	$24.8K	12,976	12,976	+0	open	—	10-17 18:24
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	5	$21.4K	11,711	11,711	+0	No	+$1,817	08-29 09:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$18.5K	23,000	0	+23,000	open	—	10-01 16:20
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	19	$17.6K	15,000	5,235	+9,765	open	—	10-24 02:43
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	31	$15.2K	14,415	14,383	+32	Yes	-$1,844	06-20 14:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	10	$13.2K	15,603	0	+15,603	open	—	09-11 11:49
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	8	$11.3K	6,465	6,465	+0	No	+$1,314	07-01 20:45
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 222 252	2	$10.6K	13,426	0	+13,426	open	—	08-21 11:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	18	$10.4K	12,180	0	+12,180	open	—	09-25 16:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$9.5K	14,000	0	+14,000	No	+$4,452	05-29 17:30
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$7.8K	12,200	0	+12,200	open	—	10-02 23:06
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	4	$7.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$544	09-19 09:41
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	2	$6.5K	3,452	3,452	+0	No	+$307	09-10 07:36
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$6.1K	6,726	0	+6,726	open	—	09-16 20:14
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	4	$5.9K	7,047	0	+7,047	Yes	+$1,184	06-18 23:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$5.8K	9,000	0	+9,000	Yes	-$5,769	06-14 22:35
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	2	$5.3K	6,096	0	+6,096	open	—	09-14 08:11
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	5	$5.2K	6,482	0	+6,482	Yes	+$1,307	04-05 12:07
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	23	$4.5K	6,253	1,012	+5,240	No	+$1,233	03-25 09:39
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	11	$4.3K	3,624	1,585	+2,038	No	+$852	03-26 10:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 10:39:17	Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	85	97¢	$83	0xdfc62e…
10-26 10:35:59	Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	485	98¢	$473	0x156fa5…
10-25 21:38:50	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	3¢	$6	0x6a2199…
10-25 07:54:09	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	3¢	$5	0x8b5011…
10-24 11:24:56	Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xa5fb40…
10-24 11:12:53	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x2c5afb…
10-24 02:43:12	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0xbb2f42…
10-23 23:51:30	Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7,946	11¢	$874	0xd6f68a…
10-23 21:07:50	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0xbe3bc7…
10-23 21:07:17	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	BUY	62	84¢	$52	0x3e1a6c…
10-23 14:27:51	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Yes	BUY	504	40¢	$203	0x948a24…
10-23 06:34:27	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Yes	BUY	225	49¢	$110	0x7289d5…
10-22 23:55:15	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Yes	BUY	849	47¢	$402	0x668a25…
10-22 23:55:14	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x2b5d5f…
10-22 23:50:38	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	BUY	1,216	85¢	$1,034	0xeeab9e…
10-22 23:35:17	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	SELL	474	92¢	$438	0xf65182…
10-22 19:46:23	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	266	66¢	$176	0x72efcf…
10-22 19:20:41	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x60e5d0…
10-22 19:19:42	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	2,981	76¢	$2,265	0x5a7ade…
10-22 06:18:20	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x5cc2b5…
10-22 01:14:53	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x08720c…
10-22 00:47:18	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x51c2c8…
10-21 12:46:08	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	90¢	$86	0x1fc426…
10-20 13:44:15	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	90¢	$41	0x5d4c2d…
10-17 18:24:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	12,976	99¢	$12,870	0x4ec9b1…
10-12 13:38:35	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,500	86¢	$3,010	0x24c86f…
10-08 16:07:29	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,250	88¢	$1,100	0xeef576…
10-07 18:56:43	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	512	81¢	$414	0x00e992…
10-07 18:46:07	UBS announces move out of Switzerland by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	129	77¢	$99	0xd6bfb4…
10-07 18:45:43	UBS announces move out of Switzerland by December 31?	No	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0xbf15ef…
10-02 23:19:08	0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0xca4998…
10-02 23:06:18	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	7,100	65¢	$4,615	0xcc6a47…
10-01 18:03:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	570	91¢	$519	0xd367a3…
10-01 16:20:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	3,000	80¢	$2,400	0x79d24f…
10-01 13:10:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10,000	81¢	$8,100	0x590bd3…
10-01 13:05:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	1,633	91¢	$1,486	0xb38161…
10-01 10:28:18	Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	392	9¢	$34	0xd34717…
09-29 12:20:47	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xbc2687…
09-28 21:45:50	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	5,100	62¢	$3,162	0x945533…
09-28 21:32:59	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?	Yes	BUY	404	31¢	$127	0xe4facd…
09-28 19:39:50	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,877	87¢	$2,503	0xd0ebe4…
09-28 15:00:32	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	345	74¢	$255	0x00354d…
09-28 14:56:44	Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x62967f…
09-28 14:56:18	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	BUY	46	55¢	$25	0x315d3c…
09-28 14:54:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	9,295	98¢	$9,137	0x484bce…
09-28 14:24:15	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?	No	BUY	155	84¢	$129	0xc15d32…
09-28 14:23:21	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x2bd575…
09-28 14:19:38	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	BUY	559	46¢	$255	0xee71f8…
09-28 14:18:32	Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	No	BUY	108	56¢	$61	0x603955…
09-28 14:07:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	9,295	99¢	$9,218	0xc89b92…
09-27 22:57:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	7,200	79¢	$5,688	0xe62b11…
09-27 17:20:12	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	80	87¢	$70	0x605f14…
09-25 16:47:48	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x6c26e7…
09-25 16:04:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	195	85¢	$166	0xdce48e…
09-25 13:52:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0xe04c1e…
09-25 11:42:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x296d4a…
09-25 10:06:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0x1a64a8…
09-25 09:13:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	667	85¢	$567	0xac2705…
09-25 09:02:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0x68ed9d…
09-25 09:00:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x1ac268…
09-25 06:35:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc22bf8…
09-25 00:01:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xd73d1f…
09-24 20:48:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0x8ca532…
09-24 17:00:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	653	85¢	$555	0x7a28e2…
09-24 16:48:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xbc6a1a…
09-24 16:18:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	115	85¢	$98	0x051d96…
09-24 16:18:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	1,200	87¢	$1,044	0xee7f85…
09-24 13:22:27	Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	122	93¢	$113	0x2593db…
09-23 14:55:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	2,529	92¢	$2,327	0xb68efc…
09-23 08:20:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x228a4b…
09-23 05:34:35	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xa10f2d…
09-23 05:16:02	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0xfc89df…
09-22 23:13:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	31	92¢	$28	0x790b34…
09-22 20:58:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	1,340	86¢	$1,152	0x92b217…
09-22 20:56:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	5,450	91¢	$4,960	0x93e1e0…
09-22 14:17:15	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	BUY	1,500	74¢	$1,110	0xd90702…
09-22 13:54:31	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?	No	BUY	463	91¢	$421	0x337514…
09-22 11:57:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x783507…
09-22 11:56:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	122	91¢	$111	0xc58e9c…
09-22 11:26:27	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	SELL	1,000	60¢	$596	0x786bec…
09-21 17:42:19	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	379	87¢	$330	0x180340…
09-21 12:25:59	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	BUY	961	83¢	$794	0x29ad0d…
09-20 22:09:13	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x162f51…
09-20 22:08:59	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	87¢	$17	0x60b83c…
09-20 22:08:28	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xb4a4a3…
09-20 22:08:26	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	129	87¢	$112	0x7c6b08…
09-20 17:45:25	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	BUY	1,369	80¢	$1,091	0x0376ad…
09-20 17:44:55	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?	No	BUY	990	95¢	$940	0xb43236…
09-20 13:33:39	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	153	87¢	$133	0x095e58…
09-19 14:26:26	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	15,000	87¢	$12,984	0xc301e5…
09-19 14:18:20	0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?	No	BUY	1,900	85¢	$1,623	0x8edc7b…
09-19 13:22:17	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	BUY	447	52¢	$232	0x9cad1c…
09-19 09:57:34	anthropic lab leak by december 31 2026	No	BUY	485	92¢	$446	0x10bb3b…
09-19 09:41:47	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,000	100¢	$3,984	0xe5e03a…
09-19 09:09:03	greenland agreement text released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	509	78¢	$397	0x12c18a…
09-19 09:07:49	will the greenland agreement text be released by september 19 2026 copy	Yes	SELL	469	1¢	$6	0x8042b4…
09-19 09:05:30	will the greenland agreement text be released by september 19 2026 copy	Yes	BUY	706	32¢	$227	0x0a6080…
09-19 09:01:30	will the greenland agreement text be released by september 19 2026 copy	No	BUY	270	94¢	$253	0x72b263…
09-19 08:54:40	russia military action against eu country by december 31 2026	No	BUY	750	88¢	$660	0xcf40bc…
09-18 22:03:37	Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	134	94¢	$126	0x3b8f25…