Smooth-Supreme — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$195

Unrealized P&L

-$114

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

Trades

467

lifetime

Volume

$145.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$312

Open exposure

$630

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 06-17 22:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

74% — —

Other

21% 33% +$195

Tech

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+4,683	$500	8¢	$398	$-102	06-05 21:51
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+611	$263	24¢	$144	$-119	06-12 12:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	+900	$252	10¢	$86	$-167	06-11 17:06
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-2,888	$-277	0¢	$-3	+$274	06-12 17:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$23.9K	16,214	16,214	+0	open	—	04-24 17:44
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	13	$16.4K	11,448	13,948	-2,500	open	—	06-08 00:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$15.4K	10,544	9,952	+592	open	—	05-09 23:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$11.7K	8,333	8,333	+0	open	—	05-03 07:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$9.7K	8,157	7,601	+556	open	—	05-27 06:03
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	17	$7.1K	12,641	13,007	-366	open	—	06-12 08:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$6.7K	6,012	6,012	+0	open	—	06-12 08:46
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	1	$6.3K	0	7,179	-7,179	open	—	06-05 21:12
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$3.3K	23	3,900	-3,877	open	—	05-24 20:16
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$3.2K	4,483	4,483	+0	open	—	06-12 08:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	2	$3.0K	5,214	0	+5,214	open	—	06-14 18:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$3.0K	4,420	4,420	+0	open	—	06-12 08:20
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	8	$2.6K	8,074	0	+8,074	open	—	06-09 17:06
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$2.3K	1,448	1,448	+0	open	—	05-25 13:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$2.2K	5,489	0	+5,489	open	—	06-13 18:52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$2.0K	1,527	1,527	+0	open	—	05-01 19:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$2.0K	3,173	0	+3,173	open	—	05-18 23:28
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	2	$1.4K	2,421	2,421	+0	open	—	06-08 01:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	7,917	0	+7,917	open	—	06-15 00:05
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	1,809	0	+1,809	open	—	06-08 17:36
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	3	$1.2K	1,055	755	+300	open	—	06-11 20:42
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	18	$1.1K	1,768	658	+1,111	open	—	04-30 11:25
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 31	8	$1.1K	753	753	+0	open	—	03-31 16:08
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	1	$1000	1,822	0	+1,822	open	—	06-02 17:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$650	183,333	0	+183,333	open	—	06-17 22:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$649	8,733	400	+8,333	open	—	04-06 17:17
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	3	$629	2,333	2,333	+0	open	—	05-21 06:45
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	2	$600	580	580	+0	No	+$400	04-09 17:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	4	$567	4,126	4,126	+0	open	—	05-21 06:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$563	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	05-25 14:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 22:25:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0x28e5d1…
06-17 16:28:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0x14c5b6…
06-16 22:31:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50,000	1¢	$300	0xb4db12…
06-16 20:58:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	33,333	1¢	$200	0x6d8ea5…
06-15 06:21:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8,036	4¢	$300	0x2ff4b1…
06-15 00:05:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,250	8¢	$500	0x1c8980…
06-14 18:49:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	No	BUY	3,062	65¢	$2,000	0xbdd77c…
06-13 20:32:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	48¢	$800	0x22a3f4…
06-13 18:52:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,649	30¢	$500	0xd079db…
06-13 18:29:07	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	6,633	2¢	$100	0xccb696…
06-13 18:28:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	35¢	$700	0x438cc5…
06-13 17:54:16	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xb6143a…
06-13 17:38:16	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0x2edaa7…
06-12 17:56:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,888	10¢	$277	0x01c737…
06-12 12:21:33	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	43¢	$49	0x16e3ad…
06-12 09:08:43	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	No	SELL	221	62¢	$136	0x39968f…
06-12 09:08:24	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	No	SELL	295	62¢	$183	0xe21dc0…
06-12 09:07:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,840	54¢	$1,000	0x23ca5a…
06-12 09:04:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	No	BUY	2,152	46¢	$1,000	0xaa8754…
06-12 08:47:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	4,483	19¢	$870	0xc9449e…
06-12 08:46:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6,012	54¢	$3,229	0x382d5e…
06-12 08:34:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	1,431	14¢	$200	0x10a1f1…
06-12 08:20:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	SELL	13,007	15¢	$2,012	0x0b27e5…
06-12 08:20:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,420	33¢	$1,459	0xc50d9c…
06-12 05:24:22	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	7,718	4¢	$300	0x61b284…
06-11 21:05:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,420	34¢	$1,500	0x465488…
06-11 21:04:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,644	57¢	$1,500	0x0c6abd…
06-11 20:42:00	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0x7d0a65…
06-11 20:01:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	909	55¢	$500	0x6b8770…
06-11 17:39:43	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x39aaf6…
06-11 17:06:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	880	28¢	$246	0xfa4a66…
06-11 17:06:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x68c572…
06-11 17:06:01	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	488	43¢	$210	0x9e99f9…
06-11 17:05:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	61	7¢	$4	0x2088a5…
06-11 17:05:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	339	7¢	$24	0x997427…
06-11 16:35:57	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	755	93¢	$705	0xa0b2ab…
06-10 22:18:28	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	No	BUY	1,181	3¢	$40	0x16963f…
06-10 22:11:33	will shivon zilis be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212478	No	BUY	825	61¢	$500	0xbe36ee…
06-09 17:06:18	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,850	1¢	$10	0x62541f…
06-08 17:36:28	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	800	60¢	$480	0xda0bdc…
06-08 01:23:00	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,421	18¢	$447	0x1d4f71…
06-08 00:46:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11,448	100¢	$11,413	0x530293…
06-06 20:15:07	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,822	25¢	$455	0x005aea…
06-06 19:23:22	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	178	25¢	$45	0x408bb3…
06-05 22:13:00	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	BUY	755	66¢	$500	0x262a59…
06-05 21:51:24	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,683	11¢	$500	0x1301ab…
06-05 21:12:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	7,179	87¢	$6,252	0x9506d7…
06-05 18:26:07	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,009	79¢	$800	0x85cd22…
06-05 18:23:45	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	400	30¢	$120	0x4ea5ac…
06-05 17:52:52	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,421	41¢	$1,000	0xfa9df9…
06-03 01:11:27	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	303	34¢	$103	0xe0775c…
06-02 18:23:26	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	34¢	$33	0x1b23d3…
06-02 17:53:32	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	769	39¢	$300	0xbe9638…
06-02 17:39:43	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	1,822	55¢	$1,000	0x844da7…
06-02 16:27:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,459	61¢	$1,500	0xd184cf…
06-02 15:39:52	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,548	20¢	$500	0x9f2c87…
06-02 10:11:51	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	762	34¢	$259	0xa74502…
06-02 09:46:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	223	34¢	$76	0xd38dc9…
06-02 07:16:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x369253…
06-02 06:45:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	34¢	$15	0xf2721b…
06-02 06:45:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	34¢	$170	0x828f90…
06-02 03:34:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	34¢	$12	0x736f3d…
06-02 03:34:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	34¢	$136	0x054b5c…
06-02 03:27:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xbd879a…
06-02 03:27:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xa25d78…
06-02 00:43:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	212	34¢	$72	0x89d4fb…
06-01 20:37:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	116	34¢	$40	0x782a1e…
06-01 19:38:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	483	41¢	$200	0xb6526f…
06-01 18:30:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd02505…
06-01 18:30:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	172	34¢	$58	0xc3abc6…
06-01 16:47:12	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	51	30¢	$15	0x02a96e…
06-01 16:47:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,857	30¢	$1,157	0x0812ad…
06-01 16:46:38	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,377	30¢	$413	0xeeedf1…
06-01 16:46:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,409	30¢	$423	0xcd5986…
06-01 16:33:41	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x7d0d94…
06-01 16:30:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	185	34¢	$63	0x8242de…
06-01 16:30:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x306dbd…
06-01 16:29:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	332	34¢	$113	0x3e9918…
06-01 16:29:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,668	33¢	$555	0x09b63d…
06-01 16:28:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	2,264	69¢	$1,570	0x7c9a16…
06-01 16:24:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	236	75¢	$177	0xae321d…
06-01 16:22:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x47e10e…
06-01 16:20:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	34¢	$11	0x6dd49f…
06-01 16:20:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,020	42¢	$4,200	0x6f92e6…
06-01 16:01:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	4,000	54¢	$2,158	0x85c89e…
06-01 11:55:37	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	318	5¢	$16	0x1b938c…
06-01 11:53:26	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	282	5¢	$14	0x87578f…
05-31 22:42:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	862	23¢	$200	0x9c4fba…
05-31 22:31:07	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,655	57¢	$1,500	0x6d07bd…
05-31 17:17:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	345	58¢	$200	0x157870…
05-28 06:28:49	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	453	30¢	$136	0xd5ba71…
05-28 06:28:44	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x24932a…
05-28 06:23:10	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x7eeaf9…
05-28 05:58:54	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	54	30¢	$16	0x9b5d59…
05-27 06:03:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	556	27¢	$150	0x1852b5…
05-25 20:08:12	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	18¢	$38	0x4d7ed0…
05-25 20:08:08	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	18¢	$22	0x479ebe…
05-25 20:08:05	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x835dc8…
05-25 14:06:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,500	11¢	$263	0x8dab23…
05-25 13:03:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,448	91¢	$1,318	0xc971e3…