Smooth-Supreme — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.90K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

67.7%

Resolved

182

Trades

569

lifetime

Volume

$201.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$354

Open exposure

$5.02K

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 07-24 18:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

75% 30% +$7,406

Other

20% 31% +$43

Tech

4% 10% -$4,949

Sports

1% 37% -$615

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$19

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	+1,500	$1,035	87¢	$1.3K	+$270	07-11 22:27
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+2,979	$1,013	38¢	$1.1K	+$104	07-20 15:18
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	+1,813	$657	51¢	$925	+$268	07-11 08:32
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+5,116	$500	16¢	$826	+$326	05-26 16:48
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+1,832	$1,044	34¢	$632	-$412	07-24 18:57
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+4,683	$500	4¢	$190	-$310	06-05 21:51
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+611	$263	4¢	$24	-$239	06-12 12:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$23.9K	16,214	16,214	+0	No	+$4,746	04-24 17:44
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	14	$17.4K	13,948	13,948	+0	Yes	+$8,914	06-08 00:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$15.4K	10,544	9,952	+592	No	+$1,225	05-09 23:51
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	10	$12.1K	198,637	10,128	+188,509	Yes	-$583	06-17 22:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$11.7K	8,333	8,333	+0	No	+$1,750	05-03 07:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$9.7K	8,157	7,601	+556	No	+$2,783	05-27 06:03
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	3	$9.4K	7,800	3,900	+3,900	No	+$1,139	05-24 20:16
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	12	$9.4K	12,850	12,850	+0	Yes	+$527	06-13 20:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	2	$9.3K	7,179	7,179	+0	No	+$3,252	06-05 21:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$7.3K	18,156	0	+18,156	Yes	-$7,300	06-15 00:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	19	$7.2K	13,020	13,007	+13	Yes	-$3,208	06-12 08:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$6.7K	6,012	6,012	+0	No	-$271	06-12 08:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$5.9K	6,098	6,098	+0	No	+$854	05-03 07:45
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	3	$3.2K	4,483	4,483	+0	Yes	-$1,487	06-12 08:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	2	$3.0K	5,214	0	+5,214	Yes	-$3,000	06-14 18:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$3.0K	4,420	4,420	+0	Yes	-$41	06-12 08:20
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	8	$2.6K	8,074	0	+8,074	Yes	-$2,566	06-09 17:06
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$2.3K	1,448	1,448	+0	No	+$318	05-25 13:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$2.0K	1,527	1,527	+0	Yes	+$820	05-01 19:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$2.0K	3,173	0	+3,173	No	+$1,173	05-18 23:28
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?	6	$1.7K	1,263	1,263	+0	No	+$861	05-24 20:45
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	3	$1.5K	4,725	4,725	+0	No	+$463	06-15 19:29
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	2	$1.4K	2,421	2,421	+0	Yes	-$553	06-08 01:23
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	1,809	0	+1,809	Yes	-$1,280	06-08 17:36
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	3	$1.2K	1,055	755	+300	No	+$193	06-11 20:42
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	18	$1.1K	1,768	658	+1,111	LGD Gaming	+$149	04-30 11:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$1.1K	10,250	10,250	+0	No	-$290	05-21 06:44
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 31	8	$1.1K	753	753	+0	No	+$111	03-31 16:08
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	1	$1.0K	1,832	0	+1,832	open	—	07-24 18:57
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	8	$1.0K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	07-11 22:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 18:57:03	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	1,832	57¢	$1,044	0x5b1ce3…
07-23 13:45:45	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	586	35¢	$205	0xa667f0…
07-22 20:36:51	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x0632b7…
07-21 05:12:13	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xe8a095…
07-20 15:22:48	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	268	35¢	$94	0xc6448c…
07-20 15:18:43	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,979	34¢	$1,013	0x8004fe…
07-15 16:58:44	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x06b841…
07-13 15:03:17	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	146	70¢	$102	0x1c9718…
07-11 22:27:20	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	860	69¢	$594	0x4cfb74…
07-11 20:59:01	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	97	69¢	$67	0x56d8f7…
07-11 20:13:19	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0x8dee85…
07-11 19:20:10	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	129	69¢	$89	0xecedd5…
07-11 18:18:34	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	162	69¢	$112	0x512ccf…
07-11 08:32:16	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xbd8727…
07-11 08:00:17	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc07847…
07-10 23:10:25	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	22	30¢	$7	0xe2e604…
07-09 18:03:29	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0x3db35a…
07-08 13:51:44	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	157	69¢	$108	0x618436…
07-08 03:16:02	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0649d8…
07-07 22:47:16	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	306	13¢	$40	0xa55fa3…
07-07 22:28:02	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	BUY	52	36¢	$19	0xed2826…
07-07 20:55:02	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x303947…
07-07 20:52:44	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	144	68¢	$98	0xd79682…
07-07 07:17:11	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xe625d9…
07-06 20:02:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	460	22¢	$100	0x25624a…
07-06 10:32:58	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	121	30¢	$36	0x0d9efb…
07-05 10:59:47	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x72bef1…
07-05 07:03:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	237	30¢	$70	0x495aae…
07-04 22:27:50	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x76ae03…
07-04 20:46:26	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6e4d7b…
07-04 19:29:32	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xca7007…
07-04 13:19:34	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xc5c9e1…
07-04 10:07:34	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xb638db…
07-03 19:23:49	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xad8711…
07-03 19:12:44	Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	Yes	BUY	934	11¢	$100	0xe9ed44…
07-01 21:23:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	566	71¢	$400	0xf92c3e…
07-01 21:09:40	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	1,986	5¢	$100	0x36c36f…
07-01 21:09:25	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	3,500	14¢	$500	0xbfa606…
07-01 19:33:11	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	840	12¢	$100	0x4317a1…
07-01 18:44:23	Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	887	11¢	$100	0x1ac3e7…
06-26 20:02:04	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	447	22¢	$100	0xaa571f…
06-26 19:54:10	Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	403	25¢	$100	0x9f8c91…
06-17 22:25:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0x28e5d1…
06-17 16:28:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0x14c5b6…
06-16 22:31:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50,000	1¢	$300	0xb4db12…
06-16 20:58:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	33,333	1¢	$200	0x6d8ea5…
06-15 19:29:51	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	440	20¢	$89	0xa98371…
06-15 19:29:39	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	SELL	4,285	20¢	$874	0xe6a7b4…
06-15 17:55:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5,175	4¢	$200	0x8fb1b4…
06-15 06:21:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8,036	4¢	$300	0x2ff4b1…
06-15 00:05:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,250	8¢	$500	0x1c8980…
06-14 18:49:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,240	59¢	$6,000	0x7b3ee0…
06-14 18:49:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	No	BUY	3,062	65¢	$2,000	0xbdd77c…
06-13 20:35:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	5,489	35¢	$1,926	0x234509…
06-13 20:32:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	48¢	$800	0x22a3f4…
06-13 18:59:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	570	51¢	$291	0x092c7b…
06-13 18:52:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,649	30¢	$500	0xd079db…
06-13 18:29:07	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	6,633	2¢	$100	0xccb696…
06-13 18:28:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	35¢	$700	0x438cc5…
06-13 17:54:16	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xb6143a…
06-13 17:38:16	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0x2edaa7…
06-13 16:34:42	GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	962	51¢	$490	0x09003a…
06-13 13:34:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	414	51¢	$211	0x940962…
06-12 17:56:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,888	10¢	$277	0x01c737…
06-12 12:21:33	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	43¢	$49	0x16e3ad…
06-12 09:08:43	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	No	SELL	221	62¢	$136	0x39968f…
06-12 09:08:24	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	No	SELL	295	62¢	$183	0xe21dc0…
06-12 09:07:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,840	54¢	$1,000	0x23ca5a…
06-12 09:04:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 18	No	BUY	2,152	46¢	$1,000	0xaa8754…
06-12 08:47:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	4,483	19¢	$870	0xc9449e…
06-12 08:46:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6,012	54¢	$3,229	0x382d5e…
06-12 08:34:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	1,431	14¢	$200	0x10a1f1…
06-12 08:20:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	SELL	13,007	15¢	$2,012	0x0b27e5…
06-12 08:20:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,420	33¢	$1,459	0xc50d9c…
06-12 05:24:22	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	Yes	BUY	7,718	4¢	$300	0x61b284…
06-11 22:29:39	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	1,291	39¢	$500	0x5bc66e…
06-11 22:28:36	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	262	30¢	$79	0x431483…
06-11 21:05:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,420	34¢	$1,500	0x465488…
06-11 21:04:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,644	57¢	$1,500	0x0c6abd…
06-11 20:42:00	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0x7d0a65…
06-11 20:01:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	909	55¢	$500	0x6b8770…
06-11 17:39:43	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x39aaf6…
06-11 17:24:57	Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	874	46¢	$400	0xbd1816…
06-11 17:06:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	880	28¢	$246	0xfa4a66…
06-11 17:06:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x68c572…
06-11 17:06:01	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	488	43¢	$210	0x9e99f9…
06-11 17:05:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	61	7¢	$4	0x2088a5…
06-11 17:05:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	339	7¢	$24	0x997427…
06-11 16:35:57	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	SELL	755	93¢	$705	0xa0b2ab…
06-10 22:18:28	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	No	BUY	1,181	3¢	$40	0x16963f…
06-10 22:11:33	will shivon zilis be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212478	No	BUY	825	61¢	$500	0xbe36ee…
06-09 17:06:18	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,850	1¢	$10	0x62541f…
06-08 17:36:28	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	800	60¢	$480	0xda0bdc…
06-08 01:23:00	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,421	18¢	$447	0x1d4f71…
06-08 00:46:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11,448	100¢	$11,413	0x530293…
06-06 20:15:07	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,822	25¢	$455	0x005aea…
06-06 19:23:22	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	178	25¢	$45	0x408bb3…
06-05 22:13:00	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	BUY	755	66¢	$500	0x262a59…
06-05 21:51:24	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,683	11¢	$500	0x1301ab…
06-05 21:12:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	7,179	87¢	$6,252	0x9506d7…