Taut-Mud — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$246

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.3%

Resolved

Trades

66,192

lifetime

Volume

$453.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 05-31 18:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

50% — —

Politics

24% 40% +$246

Other

19% — —

Sports

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 4398 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	453	$51.7K	43,103	42,578	+525	open	—	02-24 12:48
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	31	$15.8K	8,046	8,027	+19	open	—	02-08 09:01
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	81	$8.7K	4,983	4,845	+138	open	—	02-24 20:49
another us government shutdown by february 14	149	$6.0K	11,167	10,459	+708	open	—	02-14 13:16
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	212	$5.4K	8,886	7,983	+903	open	—	02-24 20:46
nba was det 2026 02 05	88	$5.0K	6,530	6,530	+0	open	—	02-06 01:41
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	35	$4.5K	3,279	1,300	+1,979	open	—	02-09 23:18
lol dk drx 2026 02 13 game1	55	$4.0K	3,243	2,490	+752	open	—	02-13 08:32
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	208	$3.9K	7,840	4,125	+3,715	open	—	02-25 07:00
nba bkn orl 2026 02 05	41	$3.7K	4,705	0	+4,705	open	—	02-06 00:36
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	9	$3.2K	1,628	1,550	+78	open	—	02-08 13:44
nba hou okc 2026 02 07	54	$3.1K	3,266	1,695	+1,571	open	—	02-07 22:19
judy shelton fed chair nomination odds 5 by feb 20	30	$3.0K	2,194	897	+1,297	open	—	02-21 04:05
lol t1 fox1 2026 02 15 game1	20	$2.9K	3,032	1,376	+1,655	open	—	02-15 08:35
lol dk drx 2026 02 13 game4	27	$2.5K	1,453	1,446	+7	open	—	02-13 11:33
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 480 499	26	$2.4K	3,170	530	+2,640	open	—	02-23 15:12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	68	$2.3K	1,868	1,773	+96	open	—	02-24 21:01
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	45	$2.3K	2,590	2,020	+570	open	—	02-18 12:01
lol dk drx 2026 02 13	15	$2.1K	1,581	1,560	+21	open	—	02-13 12:31
will seguro win all of portugals districts	26	$1.9K	1,522	690	+832	open	—	02-12 14:56
btc updown 15m 1771458300	231	$1.8K	1,789	1,636	+152	open	—	02-18 23:59
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	151	$1.8K	2,478	1,545	+934	open	—	02-20 16:25
lol dk drx 2026 02 13 game2	14	$1.6K	860	860	+0	open	—	02-13 09:19
btc updown 15m 1771473600	209	$1.6K	1,571	1,408	+163	open	—	02-19 04:14
lol gen dk 2026 02 14 game4	35	$1.6K	1,714	1,585	+128	open	—	02-14 11:48
lol t1 fox1 2026 02 15 game2	26	$1.5K	1,139	1,135	+4	open	—	02-15 09:33
btc updown 15m 1771463700	192	$1.5K	1,670	1,393	+277	open	—	02-19 01:29
lol wb ig1 2026 02 25 game2	24	$1.5K	1,160	1,131	+29	open	—	02-25 07:45
btc updown 15m 1771465500	160	$1.4K	1,610	1,395	+215	open	—	02-19 01:56
btc updown 15m 1771460100	169	$1.4K	1,384	1,241	+143	open	—	02-19 00:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 18:24:30	Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Finland	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x478b29…
05-31 12:08:38	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x8e8357…
05-31 10:01:23	Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xbecf96…
05-31 10:01:09	Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x5609e8…
05-31 08:58:53	Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xb818d5…
05-31 07:57:59	Cretu vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 22.5	Over	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xacb018…
05-30 23:47:06	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x1ce55f…
05-30 14:30:22	PAOK vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x39386a…
05-30 14:27:32	CD Garcilaso vs. ADC Juan Pablo II College: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x87ab8e…
05-30 10:18:54	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x615897…
05-30 08:12:08	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage	ex-Zero Tenacity	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xda8800…
05-29 20:53:19	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xd1f6cc…
05-29 17:47:29	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x5718ae…
05-29 07:29:13	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	GLYPH	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x28360c…
05-29 06:26:55	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner	Team Nemesis	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x1fe752…
05-28 11:58:52	Olympiacos B.C. vs. AEK	Olympiacos B.C.	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x53bfe4…
05-28 03:45:43	Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu	Yibing Wu	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x19fa62…
05-27 22:42:16	CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x7a5a8c…
05-27 20:39:59	Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5	Under	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x88779b…
05-27 16:29:05	Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)	Caracas FC	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x8a618f…
05-27 00:00:53	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x2cab8d…
05-26 12:37:32	Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur	Jannik Sinner	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2269dc…
05-26 11:30:13	Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet	Vit Kopriva	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x7fc038…
05-18 00:14:59	Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x750977…
05-17 23:14:30	Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x6337e8…
05-17 20:09:59	Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x7ef211…
05-17 19:01:36	Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x14e019…
05-17 16:56:23	Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xeee2f0…
05-17 15:54:31	Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x12fcc2…
05-17 13:50:21	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x4b8576…
05-17 13:50:09	New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x8f428a…
05-17 13:49:29	US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x4abb87…
05-17 13:48:28	Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x1297cd…
05-17 13:47:21	Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xeb2fb5…
05-17 13:46:22	Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x415ce4…
05-17 13:45:50	Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x27c6d0…
05-17 12:41:17	Valencia: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Adolfo Vallejo	Adolfo Vallejo	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x73500a…
05-17 12:36:44	Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves	Boston Red Sox	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x3d7746…
05-17 12:36:23	Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Miami Marlins	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x238036…
05-17 12:35:52	LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	LOUD	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x77dafd…
05-17 12:34:56	Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)	FC Internazionale Milano	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd0cfd0…
04-28 09:53:24	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x81c796…
04-28 09:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x76d8f4…
04-28 09:50:32	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x1b04c3…
04-28 09:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc80900…
04-28 09:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xe2a94d…
04-28 09:46:40	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x278976…
04-28 09:46:38	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x433ad4…
04-28 09:46:18	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1ee09c…
04-28 09:46:16	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x81ece9…
04-28 09:46:16	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x0a834c…
04-28 09:45:44	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd70ef1…
04-28 09:44:28	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x831b46…
04-28 09:44:24	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x2c489d…
04-28 09:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6f359e…
04-28 09:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xac222f…
04-28 09:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe04b9f…
04-28 09:42:58	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x4e7702…
04-28 09:42:24	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x81ba1f…
04-28 09:41:34	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x338384…
04-28 09:41:16	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0xcee482…
04-28 09:41:16	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0xc34659…
04-28 09:41:14	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xcd6da5…
04-28 09:41:12	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x8bc37f…
04-28 09:41:12	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x851430…
04-28 09:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xb34090…
04-28 09:39:52	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9ab24d…
04-28 09:39:52	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	53¢	$1	0x6b29fb…
04-28 09:39:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1e78f8…
04-28 09:39:38	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4c47cb…
04-28 09:39:36	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x076f8c…
04-28 09:39:34	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x846f5b…
04-28 09:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x7c931a…
04-28 09:39:04	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe81282…
04-28 09:38:06	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x052936…
04-28 09:38:04	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf822d1…
04-28 09:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xea9263…
04-28 09:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x24d1a6…
04-28 09:37:20	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x0cf33f…
04-28 09:37:16	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf36f78…
04-28 09:36:38	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe99a82…
04-28 09:36:10	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x448fbe…
04-28 09:36:04	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x0cbe96…
04-28 09:36:02	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xf5d16c…
04-28 09:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x06604f…
04-28 09:31:44	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x012558…
04-28 09:31:04	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x71b023…
04-28 09:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xdf8929…
04-28 09:29:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x7c3b9a…
04-28 09:28:40	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x83b3c3…
04-28 09:28:34	Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x964009…
04-28 09:26:30	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x26ac23…
04-28 09:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xaf2695…
04-28 09:26:00	XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe77211…
04-28 09:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9d99f6…
04-28 09:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x19b52d…
04-28 09:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xca060a…
04-28 09:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$1	0xc9e0bf…
04-28 09:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x31b0e3…
04-28 09:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xca8530…