Realized P&L
+$45.6K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.12K
Hit rate
69.4%
Resolved
569
Trades
20,328
lifetime
Volume
$1.41M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$69
Open exposure
$7.87K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 10-28 04:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 148 days
Categories
Politics
78% 58% +$36,921
Other
16% 56% +$5,711
Tech
6% 55% +$2,772
Crypto
0% 50% +$127
Sports
0% 50% +$34
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 216 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -1,463 -$1,344 99¢ $-1444 -$101 06-06 08:56
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +870 -$1,189 84¢ $726 +$1,916 10-03 10:24
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,134 $418 57¢ $646 +$229 10-24 00:09
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,269 $666 42¢ $539 -$127 10-24 00:09
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +492 $301 86¢ $426 +$125 08-08 06:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +400 $344 100¢ $400 +$56 09-26 09:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +400 $319 94¢ $378 +$59 09-22 18:03
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +370 $327 92¢ $338 +$12 08-25 10:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +370 -$264 92¢ $338 +$602 09-25 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +300 -$429 88¢ $263 +$692 09-11 19:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +403 $132 64¢ $256 +$123 10-16 03:57
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes +300 $128 84¢ $251 +$123 09-24 19:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +381 $232 63¢ $240 +$8 10-21 20:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +404 $241 52¢ $212 -$29 10-16 03:57
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +1,178 $1,870 16¢ $188 -$1,682 10-03 10:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +380 $147 42¢ $161 +$14 10-21 20:17
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +237 $225 64¢ $151 -$75 10-25 01:06
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +158 -$547 86¢ $137 +$684 10-20 23:36
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +166 $126 72¢ $118 -$7 10-16 05:41
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +237 -$117 46¢ $110 +$227 10-25 01:06
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +120 $70 62¢ $75 +$5 10-12 14:15
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +82 -$1,448 86¢ $71 +$1,519 10-26 17:27
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +370 $342 15¢ $55 -$287 09-25 15:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +392 $90 14¢ $53 -$37 08-08 06:37
us iran final nuclear deal by november 30 2026 Yes +600 $66 8¢ $51 -$15 08-16 15:41
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +370 $46 14¢ $50 +$4 08-25 10:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +398 $37 12¢ $50 +$12 09-22 18:03
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,464 -$127 3¢ $-48 +$79 06-06 08:56
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 Yes +400 $71 12¢ $46 -$25 08-09 14:28
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +166 $27 28¢ $46 +$19 10-16 05:41