Realized P&L
+$45.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.30K
Hit rate
69.3%
Resolved
563
Trades
20,328
lifetime
Volume
$1.41M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$69
Open exposure
$8.49K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 10-28 04:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 147 days
Categories
Politics
78% 58% +$36,719
Other
16% 56% +$5,810
Tech
6% 55% +$2,772
Crypto
0% 50% +$127
Sports
0% 50% +$34
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 216 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -1,463 -$1,344 98¢ $-1441 -$97 06-06 08:56
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +870 -$1,189 84¢ $735 +$1,924 10-03 10:24
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,134 $418 55¢ $624 +$206 10-24 00:09
us iran final nuclear deal by october 31 2026 No +600 $534 100¢ $599 +$65 08-16 15:41
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,269 $666 42¢ $526 -$140 10-24 00:09
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +492 $301 86¢ $421 +$120 08-08 06:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +400 $344 100¢ $400 +$56 09-26 09:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +400 $319 92¢ $370 +$51 09-22 18:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +370 -$264 92¢ $338 +$602 09-25 15:37
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +370 $327 91¢ $337 +$10 08-25 10:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +300 -$429 88¢ $264 +$694 09-11 19:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +403 $132 62¢ $252 +$119 10-16 03:57
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes +300 $128 83¢ $249 +$121 09-24 19:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +381 $232 62¢ $238 +$6 10-21 20:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +404 $241 53¢ $214 -$27 10-16 03:57
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +1,178 $1,870 16¢ $188 -$1,682 10-03 10:24
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +237 $225 64¢ $151 -$75 10-25 01:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +380 $147 38¢ $146 -$1 10-21 20:17
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +158 -$547 85¢ $135 +$682 10-20 23:36
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +166 $126 70¢ $117 -$9 10-16 05:41
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +237 -$117 46¢ $108 +$225 10-25 01:06
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,464 -$127 7¢ $-101 +$26 06-06 08:56
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +100 -$98 99¢ $99 +$197 09-29 18:29
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +120 $70 60¢ $71 +$2 10-12 14:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +71 $48 100¢ $71 +$23 09-03 20:56
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +82 -$1,448 86¢ $70 +$1,519 10-26 17:27
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +370 $342 18¢ $65 -$278 09-25 15:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +392 $90 15¢ $57 -$33 08-08 06:37
us iran final nuclear deal by november 30 2026 Yes +600 $66 9¢ $54 -$12 08-16 15:41
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +370 $46 15¢ $54 +$8 08-25 10:32