Likable-Iron — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

61.4%

Resolved

Trades

3,214

lifetime

Volume

$9.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-02-23

last 06-22 08:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

54% — —

Politics

16% 100% +$16

Sports

15% 0% $-14

Other

14% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No		-34	$-29	86¢	$-29	$-1	06-22 08:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	234	$647	2,895	2,671	+224	open	—	03-30 05:08
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	177	$357	8,136	2,886	+5,250	open	—	04-15 11:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	58	$346	310	299	+12	open	—	03-28 18:46
will iowa win the 2026 ncaa tournament	116	$156	9,537	612	+8,925	open	—	03-28 22:01
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	33	$136	125	125	+0	open	—	03-27 16:56
Netanyahu out by April 30?	42	$112	58	58	+0	open	—	03-29 11:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$89	75	75	+0	open	—	03-28 18:33
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	26	$87	51	51	+0	open	—	03-25 22:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	18	$76	48	48	+0	open	—	04-09 08:58
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	17	$74	107	107	+0	open	—	03-25 22:27
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	13	$69	53	53	+0	open	—	03-28 18:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	16	$64	34	34	+0	open	—	03-27 13:25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	14	$64	36	36	+0	open	—	04-09 08:59
dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	31	$63	173	80	+94	open	—	03-29 13:30
will denmark qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	8	$59	60	60	+0	open	—	03-26 14:58
dota2 ty ts8 2026 03 26 game1	15	$58	65	60	+6	open	—	03-26 12:18
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	18	$57	78	78	+0	open	—	03-29 00:51
btc updown 15m 1774273500	22	$56	113	0	+113	open	—	03-23 13:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	10	$56	57	57	+0	open	—	03-27 21:15
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	11	$53	39	39	+0	open	—	03-26 23:40
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	38	$52	399	93	+306	open	—	03-28 16:32
will poland qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	12	$51	48	48	+0	open	—	03-29 08:27
bitcoin up or down march 5 11am et	24	$49	45	32	+14	open	—	03-05 16:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$44	5,250	0	+5,250	open	—	04-15 11:53
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	30	$42	1,334	0	+1,334	open	—	03-25 02:50
nhl chi nyi 2026 03 24 total 6pt5	23	$41	44	44	+0	open	—	03-24 22:48
dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	22	$39	60	27	+33	open	—	03-29 13:08
will ukraine qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	9	$38	22	22	+0	open	—	03-26 21:35
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	19	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-25 15:47
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	10	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-29 11:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 08:18:55	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x714e96…
06-22 08:18:41	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x6ab570…
06-22 08:18:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	34	84¢	$29	0x7dd1f0…
06-22 08:18:16	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xcd0c11…
04-15 11:54:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0xab7002…
04-15 11:53:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$6	0x2fa4f2…
04-14 03:33:29	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 13 2026	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x88714e…
04-14 03:23:47	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 13 2026	No	BUY	1,195	1¢	$8	0x8de406…
04-13 21:03:27	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 13 2026	No	BUY	1,300	1¢	$9	0x31300a…
04-13 20:49:53	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 13 2026	No	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xd8cfb7…
04-09 10:41:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	461	1¢	$4	0x0b8d12…
04-09 10:05:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x0113a1…
04-09 09:43:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xeb4ee2…
04-09 09:39:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xe67a3d…
04-09 09:37:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdbdd6c…
04-09 09:02:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x8ebac3…
04-09 09:01:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	39	1¢	$0	0xaa0db2…
04-09 09:01:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	1¢	$0	0xbd2d68…
04-09 09:01:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x71b23a…
04-09 09:01:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0x65ea49…
04-09 09:01:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	162	1¢	$1	0x32ddc6…
04-09 09:00:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	232	1¢	$2	0x41e82b…
04-09 09:00:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	331	1¢	$3	0xd30d4f…
04-09 09:00:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	473	1¢	$4	0xf798e4…
04-09 09:00:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	661	1¢	$5	0x2e4111…
04-09 08:59:07	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	SELL	36	93¢	$33	0x3eb179…
04-09 08:58:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	48	89¢	$43	0x2fb4d3…
04-07 21:26:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	1¢	$13	0xb268c5…
04-07 13:45:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	1¢	$10	0xe15d7b…
04-01 20:36:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	750	1¢	$6	0xad3358…
03-30 11:00:12	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x3f3188…
03-30 05:08:20	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x592fab…
03-30 05:07:48	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xb6ecd8…
03-30 05:07:48	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0x4e70a3…
03-30 05:07:48	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x2e8126…
03-30 05:07:16	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xb4ce46…
03-30 05:07:16	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	26	11¢	$3	0xa117bf…
03-30 05:07:14	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xa818c6…
03-30 05:07:14	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x3d7c99…
03-30 05:06:10	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	29	12¢	$3	0x64fef3…
03-30 05:05:38	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0x901781…
03-30 05:05:38	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0x15fcba…
03-30 05:05:06	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0xec9d65…
03-30 05:05:06	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0x9e74d7…
03-30 05:04:16	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x990e85…
03-30 05:04:16	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0x93bdc0…
03-30 05:04:16	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x2853b6…
03-30 05:04:00	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0xb0f8c6…
03-30 05:04:00	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x86fc35…
03-30 05:04:00	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0x7fad06…
03-30 05:04:00	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x510ea1…
03-30 05:03:28	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xfdd313…
03-30 05:03:28	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x171691…
03-30 05:02:56	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xea71e9…
03-30 05:02:56	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xb40938…
03-30 05:02:56	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x5c4162…
03-30 05:02:56	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x3ddaf1…
03-30 05:00:58	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xba4223…
03-30 03:05:58	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	12	21¢	$2	0x0a8e84…
03-30 02:05:44	nba gsw den 2026 03 29 total 238pt5	Over	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2f09d5…
03-30 02:04:22	nba gsw den 2026 03 29 total 238pt5	Over	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc14967…
03-29 17:33:50	lol mkoi fnc 2026 03 29 game1	Fnatic	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x8198ac…
03-29 17:29:46	lol mkoi fnc 2026 03 29 game2	Fnatic	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x664cde…
03-29 17:27:40	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x45f546…
03-29 17:27:40	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x211ec5…
03-29 17:27:40	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x18b6fd…
03-29 17:01:48	lol sk th 2026 03 29	SK Gaming	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x4f0552…
03-29 17:01:16	lol sk th 2026 03 29	SK Gaming	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0xb6d392…
03-29 17:00:44	lol sk th 2026 03 29	SK Gaming	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x6b0287…
03-29 16:58:14	lol sk th 2026 03 29	SK Gaming	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x3175e4…
03-29 16:56:06	lol sk th 2026 03 29	SK Gaming	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0x7b720c…
03-29 16:56:06	lol sk th 2026 03 29	SK Gaming	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0x0f9a36…
03-29 16:46:40	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0x630907…
03-29 16:28:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	1¢	$22	0xd3e6e2…
03-29 16:28:40	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x2340d9…
03-29 14:00:42	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0xff64dc…
03-29 14:00:42	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0xee5940…
03-29 14:00:42	lol sk th 2026 03 29	Team Heretics	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0x620b80…
03-29 13:30:46	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x9f7d60…
03-29 13:17:50	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x6e0039…
03-29 13:17:18	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x694acd…
03-29 13:17:02	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x276b8e…
03-29 13:16:30	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xcf93f2…
03-29 13:16:30	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x7a39a5…
03-29 13:16:30	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x340ba4…
03-29 13:16:30	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x28ac43…
03-29 13:10:16	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xac81df…
03-29 13:10:16	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x4e0036…
03-29 13:08:08	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7c8b68…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfab0fe…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xcd9440…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc051cf…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x66b862…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x647ac6…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x21eef3…
03-29 13:07:34	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29 game2	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0c9eed…
03-29 13:06:48	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x3bebd4…
03-29 12:54:28	atp lehecka sinner 2026 03 29	Jannik Sinner	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x321c37…
03-29 12:29:04	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0xafb111…
03-29 12:28:32	dota2 ty xtreme 2026 03 29	Xtreme Gaming	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0xd7024e…