Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

55.5%

Resolved

151

Trades

163

lifetime

Volume

$234

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-26

last 11-06 04:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

87% 57% +$17

Politics

11% 43% $0

Tech

1% 0% -$1

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	11-03 16:59
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	50¢	$1	+$0	11-05 20:22
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	+2	$1	42¢	$1	$0	11-04 19:07
Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	No	+1	$1	68¢	$1	$0	11-04 09:13
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	+2	$1	36¢	$1	$0	11-06 04:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say supreme court during michigan remarks 20260724162420375	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	07-27 03:53
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-20 11:07
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-10 05:25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-09 21:03
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-15 07:41
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-17 15:46
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-11 06:02
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18?	1	$2	5	+5	Up	+$3	09-18 13:55
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	09-15 19:31
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-09 13:02
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?	1	$2	7	+7	No	+$5	09-09 04:25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-17 03:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-08 07:42
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-18 06:58
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-20 22:00
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-14 22:57
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-19 14:56
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-22 06:52
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	No	-$1	10-21 16:33
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-10 21:54
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-08 18:12
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-23 02:55
will trump say kamala during remarks in new york 20260811183234697	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-12 18:33
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-20 22:15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-11 14:24
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-12 03:30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-23 02:54
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-30 16:26
will ewy reach 192 by september 21 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-21 22:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-07 23:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 04:22:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x643f84…
11-05 20:22:19	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xddaac8…
11-05 12:14:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x50c9ca…
11-05 03:08:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x887c74…
11-04 19:07:04	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6e86f7…
11-04 09:13:10	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x85d297…
11-04 01:12:09	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3a6184…
11-03 16:59:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1e793c…
11-03 08:52:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x1f9f78…
11-03 00:52:28	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x925367…
11-02 16:48:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x31fe68…
11-02 08:48:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x555c07…
11-02 00:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x69fc1a…
11-01 16:36:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x2c2cde…
10-31 16:43:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x004c96…
10-31 05:24:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x968ea8…
10-30 04:22:25	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x67d135…
10-29 20:09:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf753b5…
10-23 20:44:41	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x62afe4…
10-23 12:40:00	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x307ffb…
10-23 04:33:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xdc3177…
10-22 20:27:08	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x1635c9…
10-22 12:24:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x199a5a…
10-22 01:20:27	Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 48% to 50%?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x05e285…
10-21 16:33:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb36d31…
10-21 16:33:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x95a8fc…
10-21 08:25:53	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3c4a7e…
10-21 00:25:18	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x47527a…
10-19 16:17:27	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x70fe3d…
10-18 20:03:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xad8dab…
10-18 12:02:18	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x71b60d…
10-18 03:54:24	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xd9a81a…
10-17 19:47:21	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x2d84ef…
10-17 11:46:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe78d01…
10-16 10:45:49	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x54fc71…
10-16 02:02:01	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4d3a22…
10-15 18:01:22	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x3b27a2…
10-15 09:51:10	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x58e014…
10-15 01:05:46	will xagusd reach 57 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x713ef2…
10-14 16:58:18	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x03a824…
10-14 08:58:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd8b395…
10-14 00:55:46	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xee91fa…
10-13 03:56:56	spx up or down on october 13 2026	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x7d805d…
10-13 03:56:53	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0ffe7b…
10-12 19:56:44	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x52e860…
10-12 11:56:20	Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12?	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x67169d…
10-12 03:56:06	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd7a475…
10-11 19:55:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8f7a23…
10-11 11:52:43	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe85141…
10-11 03:07:41	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xfa357b…
10-10 18:45:55	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9a6828…
10-09 18:05:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa36f43…
10-09 10:04:01	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x80a9cf…
10-08 14:02:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9c062c…
10-08 05:53:28	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8b0d36…
10-07 21:53:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xdd96c8…
10-07 13:51:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9387b3…
10-07 04:10:51	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe99f66…
10-06 20:09:47	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x7d5c63…
10-06 12:09:33	Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7b6269…
10-06 04:09:07	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5789c0…
10-06 04:06:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8ff29f…
10-05 19:46:40	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x805503…
10-05 11:45:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x0ee191…
10-05 02:56:28	will rklb dip to 72 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x333722…
10-04 18:22:19	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf29675…
10-04 08:18:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x7f5fd1…
10-03 19:39:57	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3575c9…
10-03 10:56:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xec3ce3…
10-03 01:12:39	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xad4e97…
10-02 03:02:17	will wti dip to 90 by september 28 2026 from october 1	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x636953…
10-01 17:37:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9e058f…
10-01 09:14:18	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xff674e…
10-01 01:13:54	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x9c84d8…
09-30 15:49:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x77f056…
09-30 05:55:44	wti closes above 88 on september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe4dd8f…
09-29 21:55:41	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd41a7f…
09-29 13:55:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xed3044…
09-29 13:54:48	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa6ef3a…
09-29 04:58:24	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf54b34…
09-28 20:26:09	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x44ef27…
09-28 12:25:41	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfff114…
09-28 04:25:18	will pltr reach 198 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x34e185…
09-27 19:57:30	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xbf6db3…
09-27 11:53:17	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x017652…
09-27 03:01:12	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xab3a62…
09-26 18:27:21	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x20a3b8…
09-26 09:22:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc2ce20…
09-26 01:21:56	will pltr dip to 186 in september 2026	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x792228…
09-23 02:55:05	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x402577…
09-23 02:54:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x520e78…
09-22 06:52:25	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x8dc500…
09-21 22:51:15	will ewy reach 192 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x4f129c…
09-21 14:51:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x32f867…
09-21 06:50:09	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x61144d…
09-20 22:15:43	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xa9117b…
09-20 22:00:13	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc73e7f…
09-20 11:07:48	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x7c6088…
09-20 01:18:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x5eefeb…
09-19 14:56:48	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x341711…