Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$61

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

68.0%

Resolved

155

Trades

249

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

4 positions

First seen

2026-08-10

last 10-29 06:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

66% 82% -$34

Politics

16% 96% +$2

Sports

9% 94% -$3

Tech

8% 71% -$26

Crypto

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	$0	09-22 20:37
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+5	$4	96¢	$5	+$1	10-23 12:14
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	+5	$4	68¢	$3	$0	10-27 06:06
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	14¢	$1	$0	10-27 06:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 adjusted gross margin 74%-76%?	14	$58	180	180	+0	Yes	-$26	08-12 05:15
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	4	$31	40	40	+0	open	—	08-13 19:58
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	3	$30	39	39	+0	Yes	-$2	08-11 11:35
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	2	$24	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	08-11 09:57
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	3	$23	20	20	+0	No	-$5	08-12 03:27
Will Ismael Burgueño Ruiz win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	2	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	08-12 05:16
grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	5	$19	20	20	+0	Yes	-$9	08-11 01:18
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?	5	$18	20	20	+0	Yes	-$5	08-12 03:39
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	08-11 13:25
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	2	$18	20	20	+0	No	-$1	08-12 05:16
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	08-12 05:15
will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by december 31 2026 20260804194832575	2	$17	20	20	+0	No	+$0	08-11 06:24
ssi public model released by october 31 2026 20260810094604191	2	$15	20	20	+0	open	—	08-11 14:21
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on August 31, 2026?	2	$14	20	20	+0	No	-$1	08-11 11:06
Will JavierLoL Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo)	2	$14	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	08-12 04:21
Will Ben Shelton Win ATP Montreal	4	$13	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	08-12 01:23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	2	$10	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	08-12 05:15
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	2	$10	20	20	+0	No	-$5	08-12 04:08
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-03 15:26
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-05 19:10
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-01 17:29
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	10-28 22:22
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's US Open?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-01 16:30
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-01 17:42
Will Brandon Nakashima win the 2026 Men's US Open?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-02 16:06
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	09-04 18:52
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-01 16:43
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-07 14:29
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-02 17:06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	10-28 22:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 06:12:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x7d7352…
10-29 06:10:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x333021…
10-29 00:37:20	Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb2657b…
10-28 22:24:31	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xa39384…
10-28 22:23:32	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x90fac8…
10-28 22:23:07	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x1dd8df…
10-28 22:22:28	Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3a90b2…
10-27 06:07:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x486cb3…
10-27 06:06:23	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xcd686f…
10-27 06:06:03	Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xb303fa…
10-27 00:32:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x35abf4…
10-26 12:20:05	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x5c5df1…
10-26 06:14:53	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x2c32bd…
10-25 12:30:21	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x22cb61…
10-25 06:26:17	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xb47c38…
10-25 00:17:06	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-12 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x9c67b6…
10-24 15:11:27	Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x544c79…
10-24 15:11:20	Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x1fabda…
10-24 00:22:12	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xc2f58c…
10-23 12:14:06	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x78dfdb…
10-21 12:06:27	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x25cbba…
10-21 06:34:23	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9a2f0f…
10-19 06:08:47	Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x76fc79…
10-17 06:14:23	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xd74828…
10-15 00:07:59	meta headcount above in q3 74000	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6afa09…
10-14 18:05:48	Danaher (DHR) Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth 4.5% to 6%?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xbe210c…
10-11 00:30:22	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 82% to 83%?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x307229…
10-02 16:37:54	Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7ab626…
10-01 12:22:51	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa253d4…
10-01 08:09:17	Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc97215…
10-01 08:07:35	Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3b0d70…
10-01 06:32:11	us iran hormuz agreement by october 7	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd4bc2f…
10-01 06:32:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x58b547…
10-01 06:26:15	Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9015d8…
10-01 06:08:35	Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xee5207…
10-01 06:03:36	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x10c8f3…
09-30 18:26:24	Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xab8a3f…
09-30 18:08:03	Will "Babylon - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7978c0…
09-29 20:56:06	Critical Discord Incident by September 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x164a5d…
09-29 06:38:09	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xddf5af…
09-29 00:34:36	Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc31df3…
09-28 21:50:02	Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x97e6ce…
09-28 04:43:29	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x99cfbe…
09-28 04:42:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x45d030…
09-28 04:35:11	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x66054e…
09-28 04:00:30	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd14ee1…
09-28 02:55:45	Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4f68ca…
09-27 06:07:23	Will “Homewrecker” by Sombr win Best Alternative at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xee89f3…
09-26 06:05:30	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb20e50…
09-25 23:04:05	Will “Drag Path” by Twenty One Pilots win Best Alternative at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd3d8b8…
09-25 18:07:41	Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf1d540…
09-25 18:03:29	Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7e0137…
09-25 16:17:18	Will “Dry Spell” by Kacey Musgraves win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6a3556…
09-24 20:34:29	Democratic Senate odds >68% on September 25?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa15165…
09-24 14:26:20	Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe62d0a…
09-24 00:07:16	Will Netanyahu say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc6d192…
09-23 08:25:37	Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x04f2ab…
09-22 20:56:48	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2d604e…
09-22 20:37:14	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x12ee6f…
09-22 19:05:10	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe46c09…
09-22 18:06:31	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0c7102…
09-22 13:58:49	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa437dd…
09-22 06:32:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x459844…
09-22 06:03:06	Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x26eec0…
09-21 21:37:49	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x849bd2…
09-21 18:07:39	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x155f0d…
09-21 15:51:59	Will White House post 160-179 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4a2250…
09-21 14:09:21	us x yemen ceasefire continues through september 22 20260920	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd3e832…
09-20 19:17:23	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf4c655…
09-20 19:16:29	Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfa2f3a…
09-20 18:05:40	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 51 million views on day 2?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x177436…
09-20 17:24:48	Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xed99ae…
09-20 17:24:48	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 15-21?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x506bce…
09-19 20:55:15	Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x743b47…
09-19 19:04:29	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x548dc2…
09-18 16:29:31	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 BMW PGA Championship?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb78cf3…
09-18 08:34:55	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2a8b19…
09-18 06:07:25	Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5dcc5f…
09-17 13:04:30	Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Biltmore Championship Asheville?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xed7e06…
09-17 07:04:43	Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb8b93b…
09-17 07:04:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xfd52a5…
09-17 05:41:57	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa45bc4…
09-17 05:41:15	israeli airspace closed by september 30 2026	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xfb0d7d…
09-16 23:44:27	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4c522c…
09-16 21:08:16	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x811e27…
09-16 20:05:45	will the next claude opus model be released by september 17 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf58cee…
09-16 06:07:46	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5a43f1…
09-16 06:06:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x90db51…
09-16 04:43:40	israeli airspace closed by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2380d6…
09-16 02:57:45	sam altman signs the pacing the frontier statement by september 30	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8cdff9…
09-15 20:58:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 21 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x51ee60…
09-15 20:57:40	Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xeb650e…
09-15 18:03:22	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x45bae0…
09-15 06:07:21	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2a4da8…
09-15 03:48:01	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc77d57…
09-15 03:48:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x38f106…
09-15 03:47:10	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x41fbbe…
09-14 23:46:04	Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcf951e…
09-14 18:04:21	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x160428…
09-13 18:00:36	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x154983…