Grumpy-Due — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$778

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 07-31 08:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

39% 100% +$9

Other

31% — —

Politics

30% 100% +$2

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	1	$94	94	+94	open	—	06-02 17:13
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$70	76	+76	Yes	+$6	05-05 06:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$55	56	+56	open	—	05-12 11:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$53	55	+55	No	+$2	05-09 07:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1	$50	53	+53	open	—	05-20 19:47
will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	1	$48	48	+48	open	—	07-31 08:17
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$38	41	+41	No	+$3	04-14 01:24
will chainlink dip to 8 in march	1	$27	27	+27	open	—	04-01 03:04
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$18	20	+20	open	—	04-27 18:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$18	18	+18	open	—	04-24 22:31
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$13	13	+13	open	—	05-26 12:18
meta above 780 on january 30 2026	2	$13	13	+13	open	—	01-23 18:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$12	14	+14	open	—	04-21 08:41
amzn above 170 on january 30 2026	1	$9	9	+9	open	—	01-07 14:17
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$9	9	+9	open	—	02-20 21:20
will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	1	$8	8	+8	open	—	07-29 13:10
msft above 345 on february 27 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	02-24 02:51
will mistral have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	01-09 08:13
will solana reach 170 in february 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	02-21 02:00
will dogecoin reach 0pt15 in march 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	03-30 19:33
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	01-17 10:21
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	1	$6	7	+7	open	—	07-27 23:03
will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	2	$6	6	+6	open	—	04-17 21:47
will chainlink reach 16 in march	2	$5	5	+5	open	—	03-24 14:32
will solana dip to 80 in january 2026	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	01-12 00:44
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	2	$5	5	+5	open	—	04-19 06:29
aapl above 220 on january 30 2026	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	01-19 10:52
will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	08-04 09:50
nvda above 250 on january 30 2026	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	01-16 15:03
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	05-29 03:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 09:50:09	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x13f6e9…
07-31 08:17:50	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x873a50…
07-29 13:10:20	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9cf65f…
07-27 23:03:09	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x0c9f06…
07-25 19:59:57	will xauusd dip to 3700 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x17bcc2…
07-23 02:04:46	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xae4f96…
07-22 08:19:45	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1b619a…
07-20 18:37:00	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x0ad293…
07-16 19:32:52	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x13c8ff…
07-14 04:48:31	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xff4b49…
06-02 17:13:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x22fba5…
05-29 03:13:38	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xee3635…
05-26 12:18:17	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x340e12…
05-20 19:47:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xd0c4da…
05-12 11:52:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x987643…
05-09 07:54:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xe4b778…
05-09 04:47:31	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8e78fb…
05-06 08:40:12	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf085d1…
05-05 06:02:12	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	76	92¢	$70	0xdb15de…
04-29 11:59:32	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x44e58d…
04-27 18:40:30	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xf36a5a…
04-24 22:31:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4331cc…
04-23 14:13:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xafccc9…
04-21 08:41:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x38627b…
04-19 21:22:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xd740d0…
04-19 06:29:46	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x60dd2b…
04-18 15:43:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd02bbf…
04-18 11:17:34	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaf23d0…
04-18 09:47:20	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x41dba6…
04-17 21:47:38	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3bd883…
04-17 21:28:28	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa3bee2…
04-17 17:02:46	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd33961…
04-17 02:30:18	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x71202c…
04-16 18:21:22	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x96bc48…
04-15 19:59:12	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ead1b…
04-14 16:30:30	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x110711…
04-14 01:24:31	Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	41	94¢	$38	0xe7247c…
04-13 19:11:59	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x27155b…
04-13 09:11:03	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x15db66…
04-12 00:29:37	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1269d6…
04-11 08:22:09	Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc49515…
04-10 11:24:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x89c16a…
04-08 20:28:07	Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xff487d…
04-07 05:10:59	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xeb050f…
04-07 00:29:17	will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the april decision	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x33ec5c…
04-06 15:50:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xd3a3a4…
04-06 13:53:29	Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdc4bdc…
04-06 11:19:43	Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4ba158…
04-06 06:45:55	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x385992…
04-06 00:45:37	Will BNB reach $1,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x1d20b3…
04-01 03:04:47	will chainlink dip to 8 in march	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x991044…
03-30 19:33:01	will dogecoin reach 0pt15 in march 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x627195…
03-27 15:18:31	will chainlink dip to 4 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3e52a6…
03-27 09:07:19	meta above 760 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa8619…
03-26 09:55:45	nvda above 220 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6a455e…
03-26 04:05:51	nflx above 200 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb52ca9…
03-26 03:41:57	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x76bd2a…
03-25 17:25:27	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcd189f…
03-24 14:32:33	will chainlink reach 16 in march	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3ac7c0…
03-24 13:12:41	will saudi aramco be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x552855…
03-24 05:41:25	will elon musks net worth be between 690b and 700b on march 31	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8a3f46…
03-22 23:49:41	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x0b63a0…
03-22 20:15:47	will ethereum reach 3600 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x12f9d5…
03-21 19:56:47	will chainlink reach 16 in march	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7c6758…
03-12 13:37:43	will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8ffdfa…
03-12 13:21:31	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x16e8db…
03-12 07:52:23	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6c0ce8…
03-12 05:49:49	nvda above 140 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x5394a8…
03-11 14:40:33	msft above 330 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x381d3c…
03-11 14:02:43	will solana reach 160 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x51081a…
03-10 13:49:47	msft above 315 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcd9ebc…
03-09 19:31:25	bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x02a42c…
03-09 12:50:29	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf350d8…
03-08 20:48:07	will meituan have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9e9874…
03-07 14:38:01	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb83908…
03-06 14:29:59	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa5bf37…
03-06 08:52:13	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa93825…
03-06 07:49:15	aapl above 330 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6d4395…
03-06 04:43:15	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x665648…
03-04 17:40:49	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1274f0…
03-04 14:03:55	will amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 453	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x26c80d…
03-04 09:12:47	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9dfedf…
03-04 03:59:51	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 469	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfc269a…
03-04 02:11:57	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0d750a…
03-03 00:05:09	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcd6d9f…
02-24 02:51:26	msft above 345 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x934824…
02-23 10:05:46	will xrp reach 2pt4 in february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x29aa70…
02-23 08:57:16	will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd44ba9…
02-21 07:28:08	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x5bf1f2…
02-21 07:19:54	nflx above 160 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xda306c…
02-21 02:00:12	will solana reach 170 in february 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x47356a…
02-20 21:20:36	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x81da28…
02-09 22:06:27	will silver si hit high 180 by end of february 127 147	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe5470f…
02-07 11:23:41	msft above 525 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2ae581…
01-23 18:10:38	meta above 780 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xb0d501…
01-21 03:56:48	will hyperliquid hit 46 in january	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb23fb2…
01-19 15:55:18	meta above 780 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x21c770…
01-19 10:52:24	aapl above 220 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcf2e6d…
01-17 10:21:58	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x170fa0…
01-16 15:03:16	nvda above 250 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x43e368…