Complex-Formation 0xda9126…759ffd
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$11.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.19K
Hit rate
71.3%
Resolved
200
Trades
8,145
lifetime
Volume
$433.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$53
Open exposure
$5.89K
23 positions
First seen
2026-03-31
last 10-27 04:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 76 days
Categories
Politics
69% 64% +$8,183
Other
24% 60% +$3,732
Tech
7% 54% -$79
Sports
0% 50% +$41
Crypto
0% 67% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
59 active days in 12wk • peak 338 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,397 $864 72¢ $1.0K +$141 10-24 00:09
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +796 $495 97¢ $772 +$278 10-25 07:54
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +874 -$888 87¢ $761 +$1,649 10-26 23:42
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +1,200 $697 60¢ $726 +$29 10-25 03:23
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +662 $494 97¢ $639 +$145 08-20 02:48
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,680 $609 33¢ $554 -$54 10-26 19:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +1,200 $468 44¢ $522 +$54 10-25 03:23
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +382 $317 84¢ $319 +$2 10-21 13:13
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +928 $1,130 18¢ $167 -$963 10-26 23:42
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +500 $110 18¢ $90 -$20 09-22 10:10
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +149 -$417 52¢ $77 +$494 10-23 09:40
will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +73 $45 71¢ $52 +$7 10-15 00:32
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +226 $115 19¢ $43 -$72 09-16 04:07
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 Yes +300 $93 12¢ $36 -$57 08-07 22:41
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +796 $165 3¢ $23 -$142 08-20 02:48
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +662 $196 3¢ $23 -$174 10-25 07:55
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +26 -$309 67¢ $17 +$327 10-05 09:25
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +20 $6 79¢ $16 +$10 10-26 19:31
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +25 $178 60¢ $15 -$162 10-10 14:49
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +387 $43 3¢ $11 -$32 06-09 20:15
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +27 $273 34¢ $9 -$264 10-05 09:25
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No +5 -$57 99¢ $5 +$62 07-23 05:35
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes +245 $70 1¢ $3 -$67 06-09 20:21