Complex-Formation 0xda9126…759ffd Create alert
whale 2L streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (7d)
-$341
Unrealized P&L
+$1.37K
Hit rate
9.5%
Resolved (7d)
5
Trades (7d)
103
8,527 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$5.38K
$467.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$55
Open exposure
$4.41K
22 positions
First seen
2026-03-31
last 11-05 20:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 78 days
Categories
Politics
71% 62% +$7,837
Other
23% 61% +$3,737
Tech
7% 54% -$79
Sports
0% 50% +$41
Crypto
0% 67% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 338 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +1,404 $875 60¢ $849 -$26 11-04 01:41
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922 Yes +1,894 $657 43¢ $815 +$158 11-05 20:16
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +796 $495 97¢ $775 +$280 10-25 07:54
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +662 $494 98¢ $650 +$156 08-20 02:48
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +382 $317 84¢ $319 +$2 10-21 13:13
will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +327 $200 62¢ $204 +$4 11-02 00:08
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +282 $249 67¢ $189 -$60 11-04 12:59
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +410 -$294 44¢ $183 +$476 11-04 12:59
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +126 -$1,499 88¢ $111 +$1,611 10-31 00:59
will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +118 $75 63¢ $74 -$1 11-05 20:16
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +226 $115 19¢ $43 -$72 09-16 04:07
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +182 $919 20¢ $37 -$881 10-31 00:59
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 Yes +300 $93 12¢ $34 -$58 08-07 22:41
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? Yes +135 $19 19¢ $26 +$7 10-19 05:32
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +796 $165 3¢ $21 -$144 08-20 02:48
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +30 $13 66¢ $20 +$7 11-02 08:21
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +26 -$309 57¢ $15 +$324 10-05 09:25
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +387 $43 4¢ $15 -$29 06-09 20:15
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +662 $196 2¢ $12 -$184 10-25 07:55
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +27 $273 43¢ $12 -$262 10-05 09:25
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No +5 -$57 99¢ $5 +$62 07-23 05:35
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -5 -$1 13¢ $-1 +$0 11-03 16:12