Complex-Formation 0xda9126…759ffd Create alert
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L (30d)
+$1.42K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.46K
Hit rate
66.2%
Resolved (30d)
18
Trades (30d)
1,015
8,846 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$88.0K
$492.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$56
Open exposure
$5.20K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-31
last 11-14 20:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 81 days
Categories
Politics
67% 62% +$9,160
Other
26% 60% +$4,114
Tech
6% 54% -$15
Sports
0% 50% +$41
Crypto
0% 67% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
59 active days in 12wk • peak 338 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +1,426 $890 75¢ $1.1K +$180 11-12 17:02
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +796 $495 98¢ $781 +$286 10-25 07:54
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +662 $494 99¢ $653 +$159 08-20 02:48
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922 Yes +1,994 $694 26¢ $508 -$185 11-12 17:02
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +493 $390 84¢ $417 +$27 11-11 06:41
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +358 -$1,296 92¢ $331 +$1,626 11-07 10:12
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +382 $317 84¢ $319 +$2 10-21 13:13
will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +354 $213 75¢ $265 +$53 11-09 19:42
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? Yes +344 $64 43¢ $148 +$84 11-12 15:16
will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 2 No +170 $106 78¢ $132 +$26 11-09 21:05
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +216 -$379 52¢ $114 +$493 11-07 01:34
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +540 $80 15¢ $78 -$2 11-11 06:41
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +92 $121 64¢ $59 -$62 11-07 01:34
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? Yes +197 $24 29¢ $57 +$33 11-11 07:37
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? Yes +631 $28 8¢ $51 +$23 11-11 07:34
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +410 $946 11¢ $45 -$901 11-07 10:12
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +226 $115 14¢ $31 -$84 09-16 04:07
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +40 $16 60¢ $24 +$8 11-11 07:32
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +30 $13 75¢ $23 +$10 11-02 08:21
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 Yes +300 $93 6¢ $20 -$74 08-07 22:41
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +26 -$309 74¢ $19 +$329 10-05 09:25
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +796 $165 2¢ $15 -$150 08-20 02:48
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +387 $43 3¢ $13 -$30 06-09 20:15
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +662 $196 1¢ $9 -$188 10-25 07:55
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +27 $273 27¢ $7 -$266 10-05 09:25
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +125 $6 5¢ $7 +$0 11-11 07:38
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No +5 -$57 99¢ $5 +$62 07-23 05:35
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026? Yes +205 $1 2¢ $4 +$3 11-14 20:33
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $1 1¢ $1 -$1 11-09 15:11
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -5 -$1 10¢ $-1 +$0 11-03 16:12