Realized P&L
+$169.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$3.35K
Hit rate
83.4%
Resolved
98
Trades
1,380
lifetime
Volume
$965.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$700
Open exposure
$3.19K
3 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 07-15 21:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 56 days
Categories
Politics
49%
56%
+$63,384
Other
28%
66%
+$16,333
Crypto
24%
75%
+$89,375
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-15).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -3,000 | -$2,040 | 98¢ | $-2932 | -$892 | 05-29 15:53 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | -7,062 | -$1,903 | 4¢ | $-258 | +$1,645 | 07-14 18:32 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | +0 | $4,107 | 2¢ | $0 | -$4,107 | 07-15 21:15 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 87 | $107.3K | 99,859 | 20,812 | +79,047 | Yes | +$4,864 | 04-07 22:57 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 99 | $63.6K | 103,444 | 90,432 | +13,011 | No | +$2,181 | 06-03 13:48 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 69 | $56.5K | 59,425 | 0 | +59,425 | Yes | +$2,913 | 03-06 23:11 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 51 | $54.2K | 73,537 | 73,537 | +0 | Yes | -$14,905 | 02-28 19:32 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 7 | $50.5K | 25,743 | 25,743 | +0 | No | +$890 | 04-03 16:04 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 40 | $49.1K | 50,000 | 0 | +50,000 | Yes | +$900 | 04-13 00:02 |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | 82 | $49.1K | 64,956 | 31,698 | +33,257 | Yes | -$1,332 | 03-24 20:00 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 105 | $48.4K | 31,852 | 31,852 | +0 | No | +$2,469 | 01-30 15:18 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 48 | $42.5K | 100,030 | 10,434 | +89,596 | Yes | +$63,584 | 06-01 11:56 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | 64 | $40.1K | 45,956 | 17,925 | +28,031 | Yes | +$20,145 | 05-29 15:57 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 4 | $38.9K | 25,000 | 25,000 | +0 | open | — | 07-13 12:26 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 27 | $29.1K | 48,536 | 48,536 | +0 | No | +$1,341 | 04-03 16:06 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 13 | $28.3K | 21,000 | 21,000 | +0 | Yes | +$13,609 | 06-17 13:20 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 9 | $25.5K | 21,182 | 21,182 | +0 | Yes | +$8,120 | 02-28 19:29 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 46 | $21.1K | 18,936 | 12,465 | +6,470 | Yes | +$166 | 02-13 15:28 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 1 | $20.0K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | Yes | +$20 | 04-09 14:00 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 15 | $18.3K | 19,188 | 203 | +18,985 | No | +$714 | 02-27 18:09 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 7 | $16.9K | 43,184 | 43,184 | +0 | Yes | +$8,991 | 06-19 00:18 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 3 | $15.6K | 8,005 | 8,005 | +0 | Yes | +$360 | 01-28 19:00 |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | 42 | $12.5K | 6,811 | 6,811 | +0 | Yes | +$288 | 04-02 17:01 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 36 | $11.6K | 41,202 | 2,425 | +38,776 | Yes | +$29,252 | 05-08 19:26 |
| microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase april 14 20 | 17 | $11.5K | 11,643 | 0 | +11,643 | Yes | +$112 | 04-18 02:17 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 2 | $10.1K | 10,398 | 100 | +10,298 | No | +$352 | 03-24 21:51 |
| us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913 | 16 | $8.1K | 6,338 | 5,813 | +525 | No | -$964 | 01-14 22:27 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 33 | $8.0K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | open | — | 07-15 21:15 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? | 19 | $8.0K | 11,806 | 11,805 | +1 | No | +$777 | 05-07 17:26 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 7 | $7.2K | 14,985 | 14,985 | +0 | Yes | +$2,331 | 06-15 12:50 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | 10 | $6.6K | 5,500 | 5,500 | +0 | Yes | -$1,915 | 06-17 21:06 |
| will wintermute be accused of insider trading | 5 | $6.1K | 6,500 | 0 | +6,500 | No | +$400 | 02-24 21:26 |
| will iran strike israel on march 4 | 1 | $6.0K | 6,021 | 0 | +6,021 | Yes | +$42 | 03-06 19:25 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||