Likable-Mule — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.60K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.2%

Resolved

Trades

721

lifetime

Volume

$201.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$280

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 08-09 18:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

92% 33% +$3,598

Other

5% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	134	$52.8K	64,496	65,457	-961	open	—	05-31 17:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	35	$40.5K	50,359	50,359	+0	open	—	05-22 21:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	17	$18.2K	10,427	11,174	-747	open	—	06-04 05:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	39	$9.7K	31,112	31,112	+0	open	—	05-08 18:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	27	$8.3K	43,358	43,358	+0	Yes	+$3,740	05-08 18:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	43	$7.9K	20,636	20,636	+0	open	—	04-30 21:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	18	$7.6K	7,434	7,922	-488	open	—	06-15 08:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$6.0K	3,782	3,782	+0	open	—	05-24 15:11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$4.7K	102,797	102,797	+0	open	—	06-02 12:39
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	32	$3.4K	62,492	50,256	+12,237	open	—	06-30 13:13
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	13	$3.3K	5,518	5,518	+0	open	—	04-22 17:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$3.2K	1,898	1,898	+0	open	—	05-28 08:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	8	$2.9K	4,505	4,505	+0	open	—	04-22 06:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$2.8K	3,325	3,210	+115	open	—	06-14 21:55
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	14	$2.0K	1,353	1,353	+0	open	—	04-11 05:35
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	9	$1.9K	1,797	1,797	+0	open	—	04-10 18:35
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	2	$1.6K	784	784	+0	open	—	04-23 17:40
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	19	$1.2K	2,003	1,268	+735	open	—	07-28 16:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	4	$1.1K	1,853	1,853	+0	open	—	04-24 15:11
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	18	$1.0K	9,753	9,753	+0	open	—	04-27 21:39
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$969	11,725	0	+11,725	open	—	06-07 21:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	3	$967	510	510	+0	open	—	04-22 09:47
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	2	$916	761	761	+0	open	—	06-08 05:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$915	885	885	+0	open	—	05-22 21:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	5	$904	5,329	9,827	-4,499	open	—	06-01 07:48
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$819	625	625	+0	open	—	04-19 17:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	4	$795	902	902	+0	open	—	04-24 17:57
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	4	$722	417	417	+0	open	—	04-22 16:07
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	5	$690	1,618	1,618	+0	open	—	04-22 10:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$681	491	491	+0	open	—	07-06 08:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 18:09:58	will diogo dalot attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000827858	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x79c0fc…
08-09 17:06:00	will diogo dalot attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000827858	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x639e3b…
08-09 17:05:22	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x0e60d7…
08-09 16:10:43	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	SELL	390	8¢	$31	0x520bbb…
08-09 16:10:37	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	SELL	719	0¢	$1	0xc3c295…
08-09 05:49:27	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	300	20¢	$60	0x2d5afe…
08-09 05:48:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0x434cf2…
08-08 17:21:00	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	90	29¢	$26	0x97ddeb…
08-08 15:39:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xe9b7b5…
08-08 15:39:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xeca12e…
08-08 12:18:09	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x9fb298…
08-07 16:14:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	291	50¢	$146	0xba9f81…
08-07 16:14:13	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	94	59¢	$56	0xb34f09…
08-07 08:10:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	162	18¢	$29	0x6d6b73…
08-06 18:59:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	162	26¢	$42	0x287a1b…
08-06 18:59:14	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	114	37¢	$42	0x1b9f7d…
08-06 18:04:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x0b8a64…
08-06 18:04:33	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	SELL	102	37¢	$38	0x1d7a35…
08-06 17:43:03	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	No	BUY	102	39¢	$40	0x67ff1a…
08-06 17:42:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	97	42¢	$41	0xb01a1e…
08-05 16:01:06	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	324	10¢	$31	0xbc84ec…
08-05 13:25:23	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	114	29¢	$33	0xe55b57…
08-05 12:09:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	58	33¢	$19	0x1ea16e…
08-05 08:46:08	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	38	29¢	$11	0x1e6788…
08-04 21:56:30	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,070	0¢	$4	0x26a56f…
08-04 21:54:11	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0xc7439c…
08-04 12:36:02	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	57	54¢	$31	0x946c83…
08-04 12:35:44	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x8c5bb0…
08-04 11:14:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xfc98d9…
08-03 18:25:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xece5fc…
08-03 05:37:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x07222d…
08-02 08:40:23	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	9¢	$16	0x0c59da…
07-30 14:14:42	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x148f53…
07-29 20:08:56	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	146	69¢	$101	0x39958a…
07-29 18:02:15	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	35	49¢	$17	0xaeb214…
07-29 17:31:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0xabd9bb…
07-28 16:05:29	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	735	14¢	$100	0xb88ad4…
07-23 05:08:07	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	Yes	SELL	98	2¢	$2	0x34aa3b…
07-22 07:59:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	154	8¢	$12	0x58c2d3…
07-21 15:08:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x3d1ca7…
07-19 15:35:01	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	258	27¢	$70	0xe5921c…
07-19 15:34:58	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	Yes	SELL	56	5¢	$3	0x0fea4d…
07-19 08:28:43	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x0b6512…
07-18 18:42:16	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x2f02ed…
07-18 12:44:37	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	56	56¢	$31	0xdbee9b…
07-18 07:04:28	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0xe0355d…
07-17 18:08:10	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	209	40¢	$84	0x051cd5…
07-17 14:59:21	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	239	35¢	$84	0x2750a2…
07-17 11:49:58	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	No	SELL	80	8¢	$6	0x65af67…
07-17 05:42:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	No	BUY	80	19¢	$15	0x1c7a2f…
07-17 05:40:28	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	10¢	$16	0x8d7f71…
07-16 14:54:16	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	11¢	$17	0xc283f3…
07-16 14:53:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	56	32¢	$18	0xf97afe…
07-14 11:06:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	81	33¢	$27	0x5f4166…
07-14 11:06:20	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0x1719b5…
07-14 11:06:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x7766b6…
07-14 08:37:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xc5c192…
07-14 08:37:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	59	17¢	$10	0x1142d3…
07-14 05:58:10	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x5fe4de…
07-14 05:57:46	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	320	4¢	$11	0xffb272…
07-13 20:15:53	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	142	12¢	$17	0xf42ed6…
07-13 20:15:35	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0xd7c051…
07-13 19:39:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0xcceace…
07-13 19:39:25	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	40	39¢	$16	0x9d0f6f…
07-13 18:53:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	89	11¢	$10	0xdceb30…
07-13 18:53:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	42	23¢	$10	0xe960a5…
07-13 18:51:43	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	89	11¢	$10	0xab5230…
07-13 18:51:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	42	23¢	$10	0x370655…
07-13 17:01:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xc90294…
07-13 17:01:11	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0x5b821c…
07-13 16:58:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	72	29¢	$21	0x868e0e…
07-13 16:57:47	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	46	46¢	$21	0x7435d1…
07-13 16:13:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0xd6f515…
07-13 16:12:14	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	43	48¢	$20	0xe9389a…
07-13 16:00:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xfb8d5b…
07-13 15:58:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	77	26¢	$20	0x35a778…
07-13 15:55:38	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	77	29¢	$22	0x0169d1…
07-13 15:55:13	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	45	48¢	$21	0x928c61…
07-13 14:54:38	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	57	37¢	$21	0x50a83b…
07-13 14:54:23	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	32	48¢	$16	0xc9f7e1…
07-13 14:54:17	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x8f3d44…
07-12 09:13:04	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	212	3¢	$6	0xc1257b…
07-12 09:12:44	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xeae301…
07-11 16:20:13	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	161	18¢	$29	0xbf58fa…
07-11 16:19:55	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	37	79¢	$29	0x88be32…
07-11 15:50:22	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x83514e…
07-11 14:14:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	SELL	51	60¢	$31	0x79cf12…
07-11 12:47:49	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	40	14¢	$5	0x307ef4…
07-11 12:46:56	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	44	13¢	$6	0xac7c1b…
07-11 12:46:35	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0xf20934…
07-11 12:42:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	51	21¢	$11	0x5ec616…
07-11 12:41:05	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0xd3b2b2…
07-11 06:19:29	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	129	17¢	$22	0x70e876…
07-11 06:19:13	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	25	88¢	$22	0x8a69bb…
07-10 14:10:02	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	BUY	99	92¢	$91	0xee6969…
07-10 14:09:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	694	13¢	$90	0x1eae41…
07-09 12:42:29	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xcf1a52…
07-08 21:39:05	Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	SELL	95	0¢	$0	0x72e896…
07-08 19:36:31	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	343	53¢	$181	0xac9f58…
07-08 19:35:29	Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x293334…