Likable-Mule — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.16K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

153

Trades

1,149

lifetime

Volume

$260.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$226

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 10-24 17:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 78 days

Categories

Politics

90% 21% -$1,507

Other

6% 17% -$5,360

Crypto

2% 100% +$1,973

Sports

1% 40% -$259

Tech

0% 50% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	136	$53.1K	65,457	65,457	+0	No	+$244	05-31 17:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	35	$40.5K	50,359	50,359	+0	No	-$20	05-22 21:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	19	$19.7K	11,677	11,677	+0	No	+$23	06-04 05:59
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	38	$15.6K	19,442	19,442	+0	Yes	-$226	08-13 11:38
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	101	$13.3K	25,681	21,414	+4,267	No	-$1,039	09-21 05:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	39	$9.7K	31,112	31,112	+0	No	+$623	05-08 18:40
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	57	$9.3K	89,388	77,555	+11,834	No	-$1,966	06-30 13:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	22	$8.4K	8,148	8,148	+0	Yes	-$1,534	06-15 08:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	27	$8.3K	43,358	43,358	+0	Yes	+$3,740	05-08 18:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	43	$7.9K	20,636	20,636	+0	No	+$69	04-30 21:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	17	$6.5K	6,525	6,525	-0	Yes	-$236	06-14 21:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$6.0K	3,782	3,782	+0	No	+$607	05-24 15:11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$4.7K	102,797	102,797	+0	No	+$1,973	06-02 12:39
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	9	$4.1K	7,996	2,347	+5,649	Yes	-$2,447	05-19 07:10
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	13	$3.3K	5,518	5,518	+0	No	+$481	04-22 17:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$3.2K	1,898	1,898	+0	No	-$32	05-28 08:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	8	$2.9K	4,505	4,505	+0	No	-$121	04-22 06:38
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	14	$2.0K	1,353	1,353	+0	No	-$150	04-11 05:35
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	9	$1.9K	1,797	1,797	+0	No	-$289	04-10 18:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	2	$1.9K	2,381	2,381	+0	Yes	-$92	05-24 15:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	2	$1.6K	784	784	+0	No	-$1	04-23 17:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	6	$1.3K	9,827	9,827	+0	No	-$344	06-01 07:48
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	32	$1.3K	17,529	17,529	+0	No	-$541	09-18 17:27
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	20	$1.2K	2,003	2,003	+0	No	-$99	07-29 08:17
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	5	$1.1K	1,181	1,181	+0	Yes	+$100	05-13 15:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	4	$1.1K	1,853	1,853	+0	No	-$31	04-24 15:11
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	18	$1.0K	9,753	9,753	+0	No	-$303	04-27 21:39
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$969	11,725	0	+11,725	Yes	-$969	06-07 21:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	3	$967	510	510	+0	No	-$2	04-22 09:47
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3	$940	1,440	1,440	+0	Yes	-$60	05-13 09:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 17:06:18	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	104	9¢	$10	0xd170c9…
09-29 17:54:51	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x91198f…
09-27 20:57:39	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	11¢	$11	0x2deb89…
09-27 15:51:36	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	13¢	$13	0x51444c…
09-27 15:50:05	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	209	3¢	$7	0x0a9683…
09-26 16:01:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0x00f084…
09-26 16:01:11	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	99	22¢	$22	0x960681…
09-26 16:00:53	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	231	10¢	$23	0x4e9025…
09-22 21:13:18	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xd152a4…
09-22 17:56:33	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	609	1¢	$4	0x70b8b6…
09-21 20:35:30	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	9¢	$19	0xcf3bca…
09-21 20:35:19	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	609	2¢	$14	0xea0a5d…
09-21 20:34:52	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	172	20¢	$35	0x0c2d92…
09-21 11:03:59	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	231	21¢	$48	0xd6fa66…
09-21 05:00:52	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	778	1¢	$7	0xc3291b…
09-21 05:00:27	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	135	43¢	$58	0x299676…
09-20 20:50:28	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	381	2¢	$8	0x489c5c…
09-20 19:13:01	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	5¢	$8	0xf4a0c9…
09-20 19:01:26	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	909	3¢	$30	0xc715f8…
09-20 19:00:22	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	306	4¢	$11	0xfdeb0d…
09-20 18:59:53	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5,615	0¢	$11	0x96194d…
09-20 15:56:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	417	7¢	$31	0x9ca891…
09-20 15:46:24	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	95	9¢	$9	0x3d0376…
09-20 15:46:09	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	SELL	292	3¢	$8	0xeb6c3a…
09-20 14:09:12	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,800	0¢	$14	0x07b9d0…
09-20 14:07:34	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	13,998	0¢	$14	0xd96ac5…
09-20 14:03:00	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0x0916f1…
09-20 14:02:37	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	190	21¢	$40	0xf50502…
09-18 17:27:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0xaa63b6…
09-18 17:27:19	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,385	1¢	$18	0xf26f76…
09-18 17:27:00	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,224	2¢	$38	0xea861e…
09-18 09:51:15	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	153	20¢	$30	0x53ba79…
09-18 08:05:36	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	174	2¢	$4	0x769364…
09-18 06:58:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	967	4¢	$36	0x50ccc8…
09-17 17:18:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0xeb1ab9…
09-17 17:16:25	Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	540	5¢	$28	0x4fea8f…
09-17 16:00:58	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	No	SELL	992	2¢	$18	0xd8b8d1…
09-17 09:39:31	Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	BUY	1,400	0¢	$7	0x4a302a…
09-17 09:36:57	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	989	6¢	$59	0xd4817e…
09-16 11:53:13	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	272	22¢	$60	0xa31a80…
09-16 11:08:06	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$9	0x4f45b3…
09-16 07:22:27	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	209	4¢	$9	0x58ee1a…
09-16 07:13:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	465	4¢	$20	0xf95ab8…
09-16 07:13:06	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	No	BUY	764	10¢	$75	0xbd3047…
09-16 07:12:46	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	863	20¢	$175	0x1450ad…
09-16 07:09:40	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026?	No	BUY	227	9¢	$20	0x34712c…
09-16 07:09:21	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	93	4¢	$4	0xc28eb3…
09-16 07:08:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	21¢	$24	0x2c0915…
09-16 04:59:55	Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	BUY	1,617	1¢	$10	0x94b737…
09-16 04:59:19	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	869	1¢	$5	0x22e102…
09-16 04:58:25	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	710	2¢	$16	0x7fb256…
09-12 08:09:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xb10c50…
09-11 09:05:46	houthis enter aden by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	167	9¢	$15	0x799d52…
09-11 06:07:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xd3c650…
09-10 16:16:37	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	399	1¢	$5	0xa71447…
09-09 16:43:42	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	937	3¢	$29	0x302679…
09-09 16:41:07	Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$20	0x48a717…
09-09 16:40:51	Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	BUY	812	1¢	$6	0x5ae13e…
09-09 16:40:16	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	487	21¢	$105	0xa1304e…
09-09 16:39:34	Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0xef94c0…
09-09 15:18:24	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13,129	1¢	$80	0xf48cfc…
09-09 10:32:06	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	655	3¢	$19	0x00c508…
09-09 10:31:25	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x626c80…
09-08 18:01:25	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	230	22¢	$50	0x4a5189…
09-08 12:40:03	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,395	4¢	$49	0x065a43…
09-08 11:55:24	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	267	7¢	$20	0x92453f…
09-08 11:50:16	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	13,836	2¢	$270	0x216bac…
09-02 08:07:49	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x32fe31…
09-02 08:07:30	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	161	13¢	$20	0x4bcea2…
09-01 14:42:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	349	23¢	$80	0xf964f9…
09-01 13:41:52	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,430	1¢	$20	0x403087…
09-01 08:18:33	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	405	24¢	$98	0x6920ff…
09-01 08:17:15	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	525	8¢	$40	0xde288b…
09-01 06:16:37	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	93	11¢	$10	0xa95db8…
08-31 16:13:42	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,001	5¢	$50	0xa2bf42…
08-31 14:29:24	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	386	4¢	$17	0xea141b…
08-31 14:28:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	828	39¢	$325	0x67dcee…
08-30 08:09:58	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	591	20¢	$120	0xb62300…
08-29 14:29:33	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	173	5¢	$9	0xfaf918…
08-29 14:29:00	Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?	No	BUY	398	2¢	$7	0x550364…
08-29 14:28:25	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	134	29¢	$39	0xac6334…
08-28 20:06:00	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	161	18¢	$29	0x4baaeb…
08-28 17:02:27	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	149	7¢	$10	0xc80f8c…
08-28 17:02:01	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	321	3¢	$9	0x48687d…
08-27 20:14:12	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	37¢	$50	0x0009b3…
08-27 20:07:16	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	316	5¢	$17	0x7352be…
08-27 18:25:09	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	638	18¢	$117	0x3168cf…
08-27 18:24:55	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,668	5¢	$90	0xb9c608…
08-27 06:42:45	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0x6d6a95…
08-27 06:42:34	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0x1cd184…
08-27 04:38:22	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	909	5¢	$49	0x4b96f2…
08-27 04:30:03	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,275	20¢	$249	0x3c8c7b…
08-26 18:51:10	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xd9b46b…
08-26 11:39:19	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	Yes	SELL	112	18¢	$20	0x32230e…
08-25 13:14:45	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?	Yes	BUY	188	2¢	$3	0x7abad4…
08-25 12:14:12	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by August 31?	Yes	SELL	207	2¢	$3	0x8962ff…
08-24 19:10:55	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	5¢	$10	0x0709c7…
08-24 05:13:03	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	161	6¢	$10	0x3d522a…
08-23 19:46:25	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x3c1a99…
08-23 19:11:24	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0xfab622…