Scary-Holder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.9%

Resolved

159

Trades

1,836

lifetime

Volume

$45.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 08-10 03:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 98% $-9

Other

26% 100% +$13

Politics

17% 0% —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	29	$1.5K	2,063	2,063	+0	open	—	03-18 12:24
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	11	$1.1K	1,033	1,033	+0	open	—	03-18 01:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$814	858	1,058	-200	open	—	03-13 14:06
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	13	$718	780	1,180	-400	open	—	03-09 19:57
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	6	$652	600	600	+0	open	—	03-10 06:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	6	$606	600	600	+0	open	—	03-09 21:49
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	25	$579	500	600	-100	open	—	03-14 15:54
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	34	$548	489	488	+1	open	—	03-18 11:39
Iran leadership change by April 30?	8	$499	544	544	+0	open	—	03-12 22:49
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	8	$483	566	566	+0	open	—	03-13 17:17
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	15	$466	496	496	+0	open	—	03-18 03:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	6	$451	281	281	+0	Yes	+$0	03-11 09:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	20	$406	1,952	1,952	+0	open	—	03-17 18:07
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	4	$392	400	400	+0	open	—	03-09 21:10
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$374	274	274	+0	open	—	03-17 09:50
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	4	$372	400	400	+0	open	—	03-13 00:30
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	18	$372	384	384	+0	open	—	03-13 23:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	20	$372	385	385	+0	open	—	03-14 10:11
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$363	214	214	+0	open	—	03-17 09:26
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 100 129	25	$353	524	524	+0	open	—	03-12 23:17
will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	23	$342	346	346	+0	open	—	03-14 16:35
spx up or down on march 10 2026	4	$319	188	188	+0	open	—	03-10 21:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$287	199	199	+0	open	—	03-09 19:26
Nothing Ever Happens: March	2	$286	200	200	+0	open	—	03-09 22:13
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	6	$237	150	150	+0	open	—	03-13 16:06
will clavicular be the top ranked chad by march 31	4	$236	200	300	-100	open	—	03-13 01:07
will trump visit china by march 31	6	$218	326	326	+0	open	—	03-16 21:15
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	5	$205	220	220	+0	open	—	03-11 13:54
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	4	$198	139	139	+0	open	—	03-16 16:42
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	2	$186	200	200	+0	open	—	03-09 20:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 09:58:19	btc updown 15m 1786355100	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x065f24…
08-10 09:58:16	eth updown 15m 1786355100	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x2d3d43…
08-10 07:29:09	btc updown 15m 1786346100	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5c9600…
08-10 03:50:22	btc updown 4h 1786320000	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1a3577…
08-09 21:58:18	btc updown 15m 1786311900	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x001427…
08-09 19:54:49	btc updown 4h 1786291200	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2db970…
08-09 15:32:22	bitcoin up or down on august 9 2026	Up	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x41f3f9…
08-08 23:51:19	eth updown 4h 1786219200	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xd7cef2…
08-07 23:50:31	btc updown 4h 1786132800	Down	BUY	42	94¢	$39	0x10ecc9…
08-07 17:58:12	bitcoin up or down august 7 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xefdf85…
08-07 15:49:04	ethereum up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x095477…
08-07 15:36:48	solana up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x7dfc18…
08-07 11:28:40	btc updown 15m 1786101300	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xbbc637…
08-07 09:28:46	sol updown 15m 1786094100	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x25fa86…
08-07 09:28:33	btc updown 15m 1786094100	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0f39c6…
08-07 09:13:36	sol updown 15m 1786093200	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2703f1…
08-07 07:28:27	btc updown 15m 1786086900	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2e7ff3…
08-06 23:58:53	btc updown 15m 1786059900	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x4d70af…
08-06 20:52:26	wti closes above 78 on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x85fa08…
08-06 17:55:06	ethereum up or down august 6 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	53	90¢	$48	0xe76608…
08-06 17:34:23	btc updown 5m 1786037400	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xda61ba…
08-06 15:58:51	btc updown 15m 1786031100	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x84e6a9…
08-06 15:55:05	btc updown 4h 1786017600	Up	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x8b15e8…
08-06 15:31:51	solana up or down on august 6 2026	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x1598e7…
08-06 07:58:57	bitcoin up or down august 6 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x43d5e5…
08-06 03:57:23	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x4614d3…
08-05 23:14:12	btc updown 15m 1785970800	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6c5c61…
08-05 21:44:11	eth updown 15m 1785965400	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x8d83fc…
08-05 01:49:21	eth updown 5m 1785894300	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x553e51…
08-04 19:28:51	btc updown 15m 1785870900	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x72e0f2…
08-04 17:56:30	solana up or down august 4 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0xc7eb93…
08-04 16:34:39	eth updown 5m 1785861000	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xb56dbd…
08-04 15:58:11	sol updown 4h 1785844800	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8e0dec…
08-04 15:47:57	ethereum up or down on august 4 2026	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x3c38e5…
08-04 12:58:42	sol updown 15m 1785847500	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc7277a…
08-04 12:13:12	btc updown 15m 1785844800	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb14467…
08-04 12:13:09	eth updown 15m 1785844800	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x551e7a…
08-04 12:13:06	sol updown 15m 1785844800	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc37a05…
08-04 08:49:30	xrp updown 5m 1785833100	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x87cc92…
08-04 01:44:27	sol updown 5m 1785807600	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x696995…
08-04 01:44:24	eth updown 5m 1785807600	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd4e32e…
08-04 01:44:20	xrp updown 5m 1785807600	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd98858…
08-04 00:29:26	doge updown 5m 1785803100	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc5e0b2…
08-03 22:43:32	sol updown 15m 1785796200	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfa0c11…
08-03 20:38:03	ng up or down on august 3 2026	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xf8e512…
08-03 20:34:12	xagusd up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xf1a8fb…
08-03 15:51:36	ethereum up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0xb6b46b…
08-03 15:46:35	xrp up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xee05fd…
08-03 11:53:11	xrp updown 4h 1785744000	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x799d51…
08-03 11:43:53	xrp updown 15m 1785756600	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2bbfeb…
08-03 08:58:53	sol updown 15m 1785746700	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb87c81…
08-03 07:56:36	solana up or down august 3 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x6c12b7…
08-03 00:44:02	btc updown 15m 1785717000	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xdc288c…
08-02 18:58:54	sol updown 15m 1785696300	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xbeb084…
08-02 18:34:11	sol updown 5m 1785695400	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xbb0cd0…
08-02 18:28:09	sol updown 15m 1785694500	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x70c01b…
08-01 23:28:20	btc updown 15m 1785626100	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x7503b0…
08-01 23:28:15	eth updown 15m 1785626100	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xefa9d5…
08-01 23:19:26	sol updown 5m 1785626100	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x896df9…
08-01 23:19:23	btc updown 5m 1785626100	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x16448c…
08-01 16:59:33	sol updown 5m 1785603300	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x8c1b60…
08-01 15:33:51	ethereum up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x4d823f…
08-01 15:28:36	eth updown 15m 1785597300	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xba0f9e…
08-01 15:28:33	btc updown 15m 1785597300	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe7b1d8…
08-01 02:58:38	sol updown 15m 1785552300	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xb04aec…
08-01 01:56:30	ethereum up or down july 31 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x81783c…
07-31 20:58:18	btc updown 15m 1785530700	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x406814…
07-31 20:40:27	wti closes above 84 on july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0xeffe7b…
07-31 20:40:24	wti closes above 85 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x82ca3e…
07-31 20:35:17	wti up or down on july 31 2026	Up	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0x1bb2b8…
07-31 15:36:23	bitcoin above 62k on july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x60297c…
07-31 04:29:02	btc updown 15m 1785471300	Down	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xfe5c9b…
07-30 15:30:47	xrp above 1pt1 on july 30 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xce9623…
07-30 10:59:00	btc updown 15m 1785408300	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc7e643…
07-30 09:28:12	btc updown 15m 1785402900	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xeb88bd…
07-30 07:55:41	ethereum up or down july 30 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xf0955e…
07-30 07:43:51	eth updown 15m 1785396600	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5d8e7a…
07-30 07:43:39	btc updown 15m 1785396600	Down	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xc2ed90…
07-30 02:58:29	sol updown 15m 1785379500	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x780d67…
07-30 02:58:24	eth updown 15m 1785379500	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x68f108…
07-29 19:09:26	eth updown 5m 1785351900	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf69a0a…
07-29 15:48:06	ethereum above 1900 on july 29 2026	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xc0ed06…
07-29 15:34:14	xrp up or down on july 29 2026	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x7cc5a3…
07-29 15:34:11	ethereum up or down on july 29 2026	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2a59c8…
07-29 11:58:57	btc updown 4h 1785312000	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xcc19e2…
07-29 11:58:53	btc updown 15m 1785325500	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe11fab…
07-28 19:13:28	eth updown 15m 1785265200	Up	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xca7cf5…
07-28 15:33:46	ethereum up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x674633…
07-28 12:56:11	solana up or down july 28 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x74f0a3…
07-28 05:58:36	solana up or down july 28 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc94ffe…
07-28 03:54:48	eth updown 5m 1785210600	Down	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0xefb2b4…
07-27 22:28:28	btc updown 15m 1785190500	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9a465b…
07-27 15:52:33	bitcoin up or down on july 27 2026	Down	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x83b6b5…
07-27 15:32:37	ethereum up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xd7dfcf…
07-27 15:32:33	bitcoin above 64k on july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xab3af9…
07-27 09:13:15	xrp updown 15m 1785142800	Down	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x1f068b…
07-27 09:13:12	sol updown 15m 1785142800	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5ce8ac…
07-27 08:56:49	xrp up or down july 27 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0xe5f2d5…
07-27 08:56:46	bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	54	91¢	$49	0xa66202…
07-27 07:50:52	sol updown 4h 1785124800	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc51f32…