Scary-Holder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.9%

Resolved

159

Trades

1,672

lifetime

Volume

$41.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 07-20 23:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 98% $-9

Other

28% 100% +$13

Politics

19% 0% —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	29	$1.5K	2,063	2,063	+0	open	—	03-18 12:24
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	11	$1.1K	1,033	1,033	+0	open	—	03-18 01:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$814	858	1,058	-200	open	—	03-13 14:06
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	13	$718	780	1,180	-400	open	—	03-09 19:57
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	6	$652	600	600	+0	open	—	03-10 06:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	6	$606	600	600	+0	open	—	03-09 21:49
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	25	$579	500	600	-100	open	—	03-14 15:54
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	34	$548	489	488	+1	open	—	03-18 11:39
Iran leadership change by April 30?	8	$499	544	544	+0	open	—	03-12 22:49
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	8	$483	566	566	+0	open	—	03-13 17:17
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	15	$466	496	496	+0	open	—	03-18 03:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	6	$451	281	281	+0	Yes	+$0	03-11 09:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	20	$406	1,952	1,952	+0	open	—	03-17 18:07
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	4	$392	400	400	+0	open	—	03-09 21:10
iran leadership change by march 31	4	$374	274	274	+0	open	—	03-17 09:50
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	4	$372	400	400	+0	open	—	03-13 00:30
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	18	$372	384	384	+0	open	—	03-13 23:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	20	$372	385	385	+0	open	—	03-14 10:11
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$363	214	214	+0	open	—	03-17 09:26
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 100 129	25	$353	524	524	+0	open	—	03-12 23:17
will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	23	$342	346	346	+0	open	—	03-14 16:35
spx up or down on march 10 2026	4	$319	188	188	+0	open	—	03-10 21:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$287	199	199	+0	open	—	03-09 19:26
Nothing Ever Happens: March	2	$286	200	200	+0	open	—	03-09 22:13
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	6	$237	150	150	+0	open	—	03-13 16:06
will clavicular be the top ranked chad by march 31	4	$236	200	300	-100	open	—	03-13 01:07
will trump visit china by march 31	6	$218	326	326	+0	open	—	03-16 21:15
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	5	$205	220	220	+0	open	—	03-11 13:54
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	4	$198	139	139	+0	open	—	03-16 16:42
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	2	$186	200	200	+0	open	—	03-09 20:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 02:43:51	btc updown 15m 1784601000	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa5ebc5…
07-21 02:43:21	xrp updown 15m 1784601000	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xdaa0ad…
07-21 02:43:16	eth updown 15m 1784601000	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x47faed…
07-21 02:43:13	sol updown 15m 1784601000	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf0a972…
07-21 01:28:40	sol updown 15m 1784596500	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9fc006…
07-21 01:28:36	eth updown 15m 1784596500	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc23b93…
07-20 23:55:24	eth updown 4h 1784577600	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x88e946…
07-20 20:59:21	btc updown 15m 1784580300	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x4a9f12…
07-20 19:53:15	eth updown 4h 1784563200	Down	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0x0019a6…
07-20 15:54:01	eth updown 4h 1784548800	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x91e4d6…
07-20 15:53:58	sol updown 4h 1784548800	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x91f510…
07-20 15:35:40	ethereum up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x8dba22…
07-20 15:35:37	bitcoin up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x014ea9…
07-20 11:59:27	btc updown 5m 1784548500	Up	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xafc911…
07-20 07:19:57	xrp updown 5m 1784531700	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x36ccd8…
07-20 07:19:18	xrp updown 5m 1784531700	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaa0324…
07-20 07:19:16	xrp updown 5m 1784531700	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x75bbb3…
07-19 23:58:06	sol updown 15m 1784504700	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x8820fe…
07-19 20:57:19	bitcoin up or down july 19 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xd9848e…
07-19 19:14:49	btc updown 5m 1784488200	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x55338a…
07-19 18:59:25	btc updown 15m 1784486700	Down	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x662f4e…
07-19 17:55:24	solana up or down july 19 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x50765b…
07-19 17:55:21	ethereum up or down july 19 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x811264…
07-19 14:59:39	sol updown 15m 1784472300	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x5f6cfc…
07-19 14:59:36	eth updown 15m 1784472300	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9c92c9…
07-19 14:59:33	btc updown 15m 1784472300	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x366d76…
07-19 12:58:19	solana up or down july 19 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x22b4ed…
07-19 11:52:19	eth updown 4h 1784448000	Up	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x0a2a90…
07-19 03:50:28	eth updown 4h 1784419200	Up	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xcc091f…
07-18 15:55:21	xrp up or down july 18 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xbb95c0…
07-18 15:31:49	xrp up or down on july 18 2026	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xf0b01b…
07-18 14:56:31	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x9f9dc6…
07-18 11:28:24	xrp updown 15m 1784373300	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa45fc0…
07-18 09:28:22	xrp updown 15m 1784366100	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3cf698…
07-18 09:28:19	eth updown 15m 1784366100	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2b119e…
07-18 09:28:12	sol updown 15m 1784366100	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xaeef8c…
07-18 01:56:01	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x8bc3e1…
07-18 00:34:27	xrp updown 5m 1784334600	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x2a45ae…
07-17 23:43:12	eth updown 15m 1784331000	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x3d22dd…
07-17 21:34:22	eth updown 5m 1784323800	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc7da29…
07-17 21:14:46	sol updown 15m 1784322000	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xb6294b…
07-17 19:58:22	solana up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xd808bd…
07-17 19:19:30	doge updown 5m 1784315700	Down	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x2170f3…
07-17 16:54:34	eth updown 5m 1784307000	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xe4e510…
07-17 07:58:19	solana up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x270915…
07-17 02:28:39	sol updown 15m 1784254500	Down	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0x355ddd…
07-16 22:24:14	btc updown 5m 1784240400	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfcfaec…
07-16 22:24:11	eth updown 5m 1784240400	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa986c7…
07-16 21:29:02	eth updown 15m 1784236500	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6b2894…
07-16 16:58:52	btc updown 15m 1784220300	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x86e8eb…
07-16 16:34:46	btc updown 5m 1784219400	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xcc25f1…
07-16 16:34:41	eth updown 5m 1784219400	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x26af30…
07-16 16:34:38	sol updown 5m 1784219400	Up	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xc8198f…
07-16 15:41:17	ethereum above 1900 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x8a38a4…
07-16 10:39:26	eth updown 5m 1784198100	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x7f62ef…
07-16 10:39:23	sol updown 5m 1784198100	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x277912…
07-15 21:56:35	ethereum up or down july 15 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x03351a…
07-15 19:57:04	xrp up or down july 15 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xcde015…
07-15 19:14:31	btc updown 15m 1784142000	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xdbd7cc…
07-15 17:13:20	eth updown 15m 1784134800	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9600e0…
07-15 15:31:50	solana up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x07f3f4…
07-15 15:31:47	bitcoin up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc89600…
07-15 13:56:08	bitcoin up or down july 15 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0x820ff5…
07-15 13:56:05	solana up or down july 15 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x4bcccb…
07-15 13:13:50	btc updown 15m 1784120400	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x794076…
07-14 22:44:47	xrp updown 15m 1784068200	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x5a8449…
07-14 18:58:53	eth updown 15m 1784054700	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xa3e4fe…
07-14 17:13:26	btc updown 15m 1784048400	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x4fd3e5…
07-14 16:59:40	btc updown 5m 1784048100	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc9c94f…
07-14 16:59:34	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x29e013…
07-14 12:29:26	btc updown 15m 1784031300	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xd627e0…
07-14 12:29:20	xrp updown 15m 1784031300	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x79cc1d…
07-14 07:54:11	sol updown 4h 1784001600	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x00feb9…
07-14 07:54:07	eth updown 4h 1784001600	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x1b2b42…
07-14 01:28:22	xrp updown 15m 1783991700	Up	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x79dee1…
07-13 22:57:25	solana up or down july 13 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x53c44b…
07-13 17:43:58	eth updown 15m 1783963800	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x34ee09…
07-13 13:44:19	xrp updown 5m 1783950000	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xca473d…
07-13 12:43:17	sol updown 15m 1783945800	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xa45980…
07-13 12:43:13	xrp updown 15m 1783945800	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4f24c7…
07-13 10:59:23	sol updown 15m 1783939500	Up	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x10490c…
07-13 07:50:50	btc updown 4h 1783915200	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xa67ea7…
07-13 07:13:50	sol updown 15m 1783926000	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xddeebf…
07-13 07:13:47	xrp updown 15m 1783926000	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xb1cf31…
07-13 04:59:22	eth updown 15m 1783917900	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x3972cc…
07-13 03:34:38	sol updown 5m 1783913400	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xcee421…
07-12 21:34:13	btc updown 5m 1783891800	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x63cbb6…
07-12 19:58:53	btc updown 15m 1783885500	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5a5f5f…
07-12 19:58:49	btc updown 4h 1783872000	Up	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x8cc558…
07-12 19:58:46	eth updown 4h 1783872000	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2bdd5a…
07-12 19:49:50	btc updown 5m 1783885500	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x95aa41…
07-12 15:51:05	ethereum up or down on july 12 2026	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9b9120…
07-12 09:55:08	xrp up or down july 12 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x07c187…
07-12 09:29:46	eth updown 15m 1783847700	Down	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x9dab1a…
07-12 08:34:22	eth updown 5m 1783845000	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x2dae90…
07-12 05:29:07	eth updown 15m 1783833300	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe80b6d…
07-12 05:28:59	btc updown 15m 1783833300	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd5955c…
07-12 04:58:41	sol updown 15m 1783831500	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x24014c…
07-11 23:14:02	btc updown 15m 1783810800	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc72528…
07-11 21:56:43	xrp up or down july 11 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x2431c3…