Marvelous-Message — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$471

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,243

lifetime

Volume

$130.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-21

last 08-12 14:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

62% 43% $-472

Other

38% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will social democrats win the most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	31	$16.9K	10,617	6,936	+3,682	open	—	03-23 19:24
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	35	$11.1K	10,987	10,987	+0	open	—	03-08 22:01
will afd win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	10	$10.6K	5,329	5,329	+0	open	—	03-08 20:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	27	$8.0K	4,903	4,903	+0	open	—	04-15 16:29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	25	$7.7K	4,264	4,258	+6	open	—	04-18 17:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	17	$6.1K	4,245	4,245	+0	open	—	04-06 05:35
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	63	$5.6K	2,917	2,917	+0	Yes	$-49	04-12 05:46
will afd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	4	$5.5K	3,198	2,324	+875	open	—	03-22 22:05
Kash Patel out by April 30?	16	$4.2K	2,291	2,291	+0	open	—	04-29 16:09
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	10	$3.7K	1,866	1,966	-100	open	—	05-12 19:23
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	15	$3.4K	2,740	2,940	-200	open	—	04-08 18:25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$3.2K	2,184	2,184	+0	open	—	04-14 07:10
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	4	$2.7K	1,665	1,665	+0	open	—	05-12 19:17
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	35	$2.7K	3,588	56	+3,532	open	—	02-28 08:07
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	10	$2.3K	1,341	1,164	+177	open	—	02-28 07:09
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	16	$2.2K	1,908	1,823	+86	open	—	03-08 22:04
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$1.6K	923	923	+0	open	—	03-08 20:41
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$1.6K	1,894	0	+1,894	open	—	04-12 05:49
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$1.5K	827	825	+3	open	—	04-12 19:47
Kash Patel out by May 31?	5	$1.4K	1,241	392	+849	open	—	05-19 11:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	5	$1.4K	766	765	+1	open	—	04-13 01:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	16	$1.3K	873	873	+0	open	—	04-24 00:42
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	8	$1.1K	1,196	1,196	+0	open	—	04-06 05:35
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	3	$1.1K	1,096	0	+1,096	open	—	03-25 21:52
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	5	$984	1,679	1,541	+138	open	—	05-17 07:11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$932	501	501	+0	open	—	05-16 02:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$896	479	479	+0	open	—	04-04 22:08
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$889	584	584	+0	open	—	04-26 18:37
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	9	$821	530	530	+0	open	—	04-23 22:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$820	421	421	+0	open	—	05-16 02:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 14:50:57	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xecfbf8…
08-10 04:15:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	95	85¢	$81	0xbcbc76…
08-10 04:12:39	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	SELL	147	91¢	$134	0x8369c9…
08-08 03:38:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0x41842f…
08-08 03:37:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0xc97e5e…
08-07 17:02:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0x631670…
08-07 04:28:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	130	81¢	$106	0x247c52…
08-07 04:28:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xe1cf16…
08-07 04:10:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x1e803a…
08-07 04:09:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xcbae67…
08-06 20:08:33	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x27c467…
08-05 20:54:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xde879c…
08-05 19:23:53	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xad5570…
08-05 13:55:53	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0x680273…
08-05 13:54:53	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x3c9623…
08-01 13:43:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xa20026…
07-31 20:20:29	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xdfd43d…
07-31 15:58:53	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	60	89¢	$53	0x2d2fc4…
07-30 05:09:44	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0xde55c3…
07-23 05:28:31	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	77	92¢	$71	0x50508f…
07-19 17:14:57	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	201	33¢	$66	0x23ff71…
07-19 03:56:46	andrew tate extradited to uk by sep 30 20260719022813213	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xdf3531…
07-18 22:37:25	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	97	91¢	$88	0xbb4cdc…
07-18 02:14:51	will anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for fable 5 by july 24 2026 20260713184131617	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x13cc8b…
07-16 15:28:01	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x50dcb5…
07-16 01:33:29	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	139	66¢	$92	0x2da874…
07-16 01:33:19	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x469e23…
07-15 22:19:23	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x5a6d7c…
07-15 03:03:22	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x1eb522…
07-15 01:10:26	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	42	66¢	$28	0x797e22…
07-14 15:35:46	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	23	66¢	$15	0xae55e2…
07-14 13:38:46	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	45	66¢	$30	0x710d92…
07-14 11:02:50	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	28	66¢	$18	0x72aac8…
07-12 10:48:32	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0x2ee4fa…
07-11 23:50:25	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x19251c…
07-11 20:57:55	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x1e625f…
07-11 10:11:37	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xa0239a…
07-11 05:11:01	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x2ae0b8…
07-08 19:12:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	No	SELL	127	78¢	$99	0x65f859…
07-08 17:22:23	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x11fc8b…
07-08 17:19:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x0ff8fb…
07-07 20:13:02	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xad1bd2…
07-02 18:26:59	Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	196	55¢	$108	0x76a6dc…
06-29 06:15:40	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0xd313d0…
06-29 05:45:20	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	141	1¢	$1	0xe0a066…
06-29 05:44:52	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x7e3b65…
06-29 05:44:40	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x11150f…
06-27 07:11:44	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x9008f0…
06-27 01:49:01	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x1e3f91…
06-27 01:48:29	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by june 30 2026	No	BUY	35	94¢	$32	0x6ed71e…
06-27 01:47:46	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x90bcfd…
06-26 20:12:05	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	32	69¢	$22	0x47f222…
06-26 19:56:55	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	57	69¢	$39	0xd135e4…
06-26 17:59:13	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x1a5343…
06-26 03:49:58	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xef4175…
06-25 21:17:28	Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xafbcd8…
06-25 21:17:26	Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	468	70¢	$327	0x7a2f62…
06-25 19:24:02	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	330	69¢	$227	0x22b4d7…
06-24 05:04:16	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0xf951ae…
06-23 04:18:58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0xed36d3…
06-23 03:52:13	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x8322e7…
06-22 05:10:23	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xe50b1a…
06-22 05:09:14	State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x386e9b…
06-22 05:08:19	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0xc60058…
06-22 05:07:53	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xbb7891…
06-21 16:38:38	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0xc42839…
06-21 16:33:23	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x0131b6…
06-21 06:41:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xda2203…
06-21 06:32:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x6c1377…
06-20 03:52:26	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	224	64¢	$143	0xa012d9…
06-18 15:24:07	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	55	52¢	$29	0x7c0b29…
06-18 15:23:43	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x1bfbf4…
06-18 14:07:34	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	457	95¢	$434	0x9bb5ee…
06-18 14:04:04	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	127	95¢	$120	0x993d23…
06-18 04:32:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	224	20¢	$45	0xbecd9b…
06-16 21:25:35	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	177	56¢	$100	0x1ecfa2…
06-15 06:36:31	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	1	59¢	$0	0x6bc244…
06-15 04:36:24	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x84132a…
06-15 04:35:48	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x99093c…
06-15 04:34:09	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x1b43cd…
06-15 04:33:10	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x6aeb56…
06-15 04:32:06	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x2428f6…
06-15 04:31:49	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x6ca5f9…
06-15 04:30:57	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xf2c486…
06-15 04:28:58	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x12a05c…
06-15 04:23:43	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xf41b73…
06-15 04:23:39	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0xda8870…
06-15 04:12:27	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	150	93¢	$139	0x9e4893…
06-12 13:23:00	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 14 2026 20260611220617201	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0xfe7b8b…
06-12 12:28:19	will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf1ecf4…
06-11 23:09:54	Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	131	56¢	$73	0x540488…
06-04 21:26:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	107	94¢	$101	0x328dcf…
06-01 20:37:10	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x1e24a9…
05-24 05:23:28	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	121	30¢	$37	0xd0bbfe…
05-19 11:32:17	Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	SELL	392	91¢	$357	0x8ae282…
05-17 07:25:27	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x0dd7da…
05-17 07:11:06	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	36¢	$50	0x178182…
05-17 07:10:04	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	450	88¢	$394	0x2a4a1b…
05-17 00:38:10	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	450	89¢	$400	0x6d8e77…
05-16 16:36:20	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x9d22dd…